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Thread: Junior Arias - remember the name

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Junior Arias - remember the name

    Reds shortstop prospect Junior Arias went 2-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI tonight against the Brewers 2009 first round pick, RHP Eric Arnett. Arias has been tearing apart the Arizona League. After tonight, Arias is now hitting .342/.374/.620 - .994 OPS with 6 doubles, 2 triples, and 4 HR in 79 atbats. He's only 18 years old and has a projectable frame at 6-foot-2, 178 pounds and has plenty of tools. The Reds signed him in 2008 out of the Dominican Republic for around $330,000, though Baseball America reported he would have received a higher bonus if not for an elbow injury.

    From the looks of things so far, the Reds may have gotten a steal. He needs to improve his plate discipline but he's still very young and has plenty of time for that. His power looks legit. I think he could end up being our version of a Starlin Castro type of prospect.

    Here's what Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had to say about him today:

    Juan Arias, SS, Reds (Rookie-level AZL Reds): 2-for-4, HR (3), R, 4 RBI, K. Projectable, athletic shortstop is generating a lot of buzz in Arizona with .329/.363/.579 batting line, but also has 12 errors in 16 games, including two more last night.
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/minorleagueupdate/
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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    Will he be able to remain at Shortstop? Or is he the type of guy that is likely to grow out of the position? How is his range now?

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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    The next few years could be something special for the Reds, with a solid nucleus already in Cincinnati and major talent coming up from the minors. The Latin American strategy of signing big time prospects could be paying off in the next 2 to 3 years big time. The Reds have been putting major money around 3 to 5 million a year over the last few years into signing these prospects. Well it seems to be paying off now as we see these 16 years that were signed several years ago begin to tear up the lower levels of minor league ball. Yorman, Juan, Junior all have the potential to be Gold Glove/Silver Slugger types at the major league level.

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    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    How does this kid from Venezuela, Ronald Torreyes, stack up? It seems as if everytime I look he has another multi-hit game. He is only 17 years old. He is batting .387/.454/.630/1.084. He has walked 12 times and struck out just 7. He has knocked out 29 extra base hits in just under 200 PA. He plays 2nd, 3rd, SS and LF. I don't know what the quality of that league is but whatever it is he is absolutely dominating it. His OPS is currently 170 points higher than the number two guy.

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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    I'd like to see Torreyes sent up to Arizona or even Billings, assuming it's not visa problems that are keeping him in Venezuela. He's getting little out of bashing that league aside from confidence.

    He could play the super-sub role at either place, so he's not taking some other prospect's spot.
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    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    12 errors in 16 games really sticks out doesn't it? It doesn't sound like he has much of a future at SS.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    12 errors in 16 games really sticks out doesn't it? It doesn't sound like he has much of a future at SS.
    Way too soon to tell.
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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    12 errors in 16 games really sticks out doesn't it? It doesn't sound like he has much of a future at SS.
    Who knows what the 12 errors are from, plus hes young.

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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    Let's not jump the gun. I've read somewhere that some think he'll end up on 3rd. And the AZL is a nice hitters league.

    It's very encouraging when these high-dollar signs from Latin America adjust quickly, but I tend to wait till prospect rankings come out before letting myself think a kid may be an above-average major leaguer someday.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    He left the game early last night, so hopefully it is not too serious. He is torching the ball in the ASL so far!
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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Let's not jump the gun. I've read somewhere that some think he'll end up on 3rd. And the AZL is a nice hitters league.

    It's very encouraging when these high-dollar signs from Latin America adjust quickly, but I tend to wait till prospect rankings come out before letting myself think a kid may be an above-average major leaguer someday.
    Keith Law rated him as the Reds 10th best prospect this past offseason and that was pretty much based on potential alone considering he had only played in the DSL at that point. Everything I've read on Arias says he has the defensive tools to stick at shortstop.

    I don't pay much attention to errors in rookie ball. IIRC, Derek Jeter made 50+ errors in rookie ball. Usually the fields are a little rough compared to most and the players are raw.
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 07-14-2010 at 12:52 PM.
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    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Keith Law rated him as the Reds 10th best prospect this past offseason and that was pretty much based on potential alone considering he had only played in the DSL at that point. Everything I've read on Arias says he has the defensive tools to stick at shortstop.

    I don't pay much attention to errors in rookie ball. IIRC, Derek Jeter made 50+ errors in rookie ball. Usually the fields are a little rough compared to most and the players are raw.
    Special emphasis on that last part.

    The AZL Reds play in Goodyear at the Reds ST facility so the fields shouldn't be the issue.

    But don't discount bad 1B- and trying to do too much in his first appearnce on US Soil.

    For 18 year olds, I worry less about what #s they are putting up, and more about what the scouts are saying his long term potential is.

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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    For those saying the league is hitter friendly, you are right. However, right now Arias has a .250 IsoP, which compared to last years AZL crop, is the best of any teenager and better than everyone in the league except 6 guys (in 2009). He is certainly a little raw (check the errors and the plate discipline), but he is showing incredibly impressive power.

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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    From Kevin Goldstein today:

    Junior Arias, SS, Reds (Rookie-level AZL Reds): 2-for-3, HR (4), R, 3 RBI. Again, there is some very serious buzz on this kid; home runs in back-to-back games and batting .342/.373/.620.

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    Re: Junior Arias - remember the name

    Again, there is some very serious buzz on this kid
    Hmm. Buzz is good. Serious buzz is real good. Very serious buzz.... What ARE "they" saying about Arias?
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini


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