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Thread: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

  1. #61
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    Next week, after Bruce has hit a couple HR's and raised his average back to .270, no one will want to think about losing him.

    I hope.
    2015 Rotation: Under Construction


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  3. #62
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I understand the allure -- Bruce will flower, the team will go out and find another impact player with the money saved.

    It's all a maybe. But the team is not a maybe any more -- it's close, and it needs more offense.

    Bruce is the golden boy. Something of a sacred cow. Yes, he's shown flashes of being a dominant hitter, but so far he's always fallen back. His OPS is treading water -- no improvement since he came up. If you wait on him, and he doesn't have that breakthrough, his value plummets. It would take guts to deal him, and maybe he goes on to be a Triple Crown winner like Robby did, but I think in this case you'd be getting a player you can count on to be a middle of the order hitter on a contending club.

    Would it be better to go get Markakis with other prospects? Sure, but I doubt the deal would happen without Bruce.
    I think it's more of smart business than anything else. I'm not sure that Markakis' upside is worthy of Bruce's potential and payroll flexibility. I'm not sure of Markakis' defensive prowess, but UZR isn't a huge fan. His bat hasn't taken off as some predicted. And he has a hefty price tag.

    To be honest, I don't even think that Bruce would need to be in the discussion to get Markakis. His market value is probably materially higher than Markakis', I would imagine. Taking on a guy signed at $14MM per for 4 years who doesn't provide plus anything? No thanks, unless it makes a whole lot of sense for my club.

  4. #63
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    I would love to get markasis for LF and keep bring in RF somehow. Would heisey, Alonso and Frazier for markasis get it done?

  5. #64
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeyenut View Post
    I would love to get markasis for LF and keep bring in RF somehow. Would heisey, Alonso and Frazier for markasis get it done?
    Baltimore might pass out if they got that offer.

  6. #65
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    Markakis is a better player than Jay Bruce today. But I'll take 2012 and beyond Bruce over 2012 and beyond Markakis -- and would save a boatload of cash in the process.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #66
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Baltimore might pass out if they got that offer.
    Too much or not enough?

  8. #67
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeyenut View Post
    Too much or not enough?
    Way too much.

  9. #68
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Markakis is a better player than Jay Bruce today. But I'll take 2012 and beyond Bruce over 2012 and beyond Markakis -- and would save a boatload of cash in the process.
    That is pretty much the prevailing argument in this debate. In my mind there really isn't an issue that Markakis is a better player than Jay in both 2010 and 2011. The Reds are in a pennant race this season and they need production out of the RF spot and not potential. That is my biggest issue with Jay right now, not that he is a bad player, just most of his value is wrapped up in defense and potential. It isn't a bad thing to have and its not like he is a negative ball player but potential isn't going to help this 2010 team hitting in the 5-6 hole down the stretch.

    The bigger issue is what does Jay Bruce look like in 2012? Does he look like the current version of Jay Bruce? Does he look like Austin Kearns? Does he look like an MVP caliber RF? No one knows. Then add to the issue that with Bruce being a super 2 the Reds would control him in 2011,12,13 and if he starts to put up Markakis overall production I don't know how much money you will save because he will get very expensive.

    If you are able to trade Jay Bruce for a player like Markakis who is young, productive, and under contract for several years you substantially limit your downside. And if Bruce does become a good baseball player its not like you are left hanging with chop liver. In order to be successful in baseball you need to take risks. The issue I am seeing more and more is Jay Bruce is no sure think in 2012, he has quite a bit of potential but so did the likes of Kearns, Willie Green, Encarnacion, etc.

  10. #69
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    If you are able to trade Jay Bruce for a player like Markakis who is young, productive, and under contract for several years you substantially limit your downside. And if Bruce does become a good baseball player its not like you are left hanging with chop liver. In order to be successful in baseball you need to take risks. The issue I am seeing more and more is Jay Bruce is no sure think in 2012, he has quite a bit of potential but so did the likes of Kearns, Willie Green, Encarnacion, etc.
    I think Bruce is a better player than those guys, but yes -- this is precisely the argument in re: 2012 and beyond. Add that to the notion that Markakis makes the team better in the near-term, and it's enough for me.

    I'm torn on this one, but I have the sense that because the mindset needs to shift from waiting for to capitalizing on unrealized young talent -- no one would argue that the time is not ripe for the Reds to deal prospects for talent that helps the big-league club for several seasons -- that if the best deal of that nature has to involve Jay Bruce, you do it. Could be wrong, but, as bucksfan says, you're not left with chopped liver, either.

    Very tough call.

  11. #70
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    Affordability is not production. And neither is payflex.

  12. #71
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Affordability is not production. And neither is payflex.
    When dealing with a fixed budget, Affordability and Payflex do equal production.

    Case in point. If the Reds did not have to pay Cordero $12M this year and next, they could have gotten another veteran starting pitcher, or SS, or left fielder for this season and the future. They would have similar production from Masset or Rhodes in the closer role to Cordero's current production, and then more production from that starting pitcher/SS/LF than they currently are getting from whoever is in those spots currently. Payflex and affordability leads to more production, when it is used correctly.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  13. #72
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    When dealing with a fixed budget, Affordability and Payflex do equal production.

    Case in point. If the Reds did not have to pay Cordero $12M this year and next, they could have gotten another veteran starting pitcher, or SS, or left fielder for this season and the future. They would have similar production from Masset or Rhodes in the closer role to Cordero's current production, and then more production from that starting pitcher/SS/LF than they currently are getting from whoever is in those spots currently. Payflex and affordability leads to more production, when it is used correctly.
    Paying market price for a blue chip stock like Markakis is not the same thing as betting your life savings on a roulette spin, like Cordero.

  14. #73
    Member RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    If I'm trading away Jay's future, I want a bigger present value upgrade than Markakis. WAR has Markakis at 2.0 to Bruce's 1.3 this year.

    I'm all for going after Markakis, but trading Bruce is just marginally better than running in place in 2010. If you want to get a ~1 win upgrade, go after a LF or SS. Trading away a very high ceiling player who is a positive contributor as is strikes me as a silly way to pick up a win given all of the other options. Offer them Alonso, Hesiey, and Maloney, keep Bruce and stick Markakis in LF.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #74
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    If I'm trading away Jay's future, I want a bigger present value upgrade than Markakis. WAR has Markakis at 2.0 to Bruce's 1.3 this year.

    I'm all for going after Markakis, but trading Bruce is just marginally better than running in place in 2010. If you want to get a ~1 win upgrade, go after a LF or SS. Trading away a very high ceiling player who is a positive contributor as is strikes me as a silly way to pick up a win given all of the other options. Offer them Alonso, Hesiey, and Maloney, keep Bruce and stick Markakis in LF.
    Markakis WAR this season may be significantly skewed by a poor UZR rating. I don't think its close this season in regards to who is the better overall player.

  16. #75
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Trade Deadline Buyers and Sellers

    While getting a guy like Markakis is a very Jocketty-like thing to do, it's not very likely to happen. Payroll won't be added.


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