Looking ahead: $27.5 mil

[Brutus]

That's how much money, approximately, the Reds will shed from this year's $76 million payroll of expiring contracts and raises.

This includes the assumption that the Reds do not pick up options for Harang, Arroyo or a vesting option for Ramon Hernandez (120 games played, according to Cot's). This also takes into account a bump to $11 mil for Brandon Phillips and a decrease to $6.5 mil for Scott Rolen. I included all relevant buyouts.

(Note: this number goes down by about a million if Gomes' option is exercised)

This would mean the following players would be needing replaced:

Bronson Arroyo
Aaron Harang (both of which probably have ready replacements in the rotation)
Arthur Rhodes
Mike Lincoln
Ramon Hernandez
Orlando Cabrera

Of the returning players, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto and Jay Bruce will all be arbitration eligible (Bruce as a Super-2 player). I'm guessing these three will earn roughly $18 million in raises - either through arbitration or extensions.

So assuming the payroll stays around $76 million, that means about $10 million to replace a shortstop (Zach Cozart might make that irrelevant), possibly a left fielder (depending on Heisey or Alonso), a backup catcher and possibly some bullpen arms.

The shortstop market looks like slim pickings.

J.J. Hardy
Cristian Guzman
Alex Gonzalez (doubt lightning will strike twice)
Cesar Izturis
Derek Jeter (we know the outcome of this)

I would take my chances on Cozart for next season if one can't be acquired via trade -- though I'd sell my soul to acquire Stephen Drew.

Catchers:

Josh Bard
John Buck
Gerald Laird
Victor Martinez
A.J. Pierzynski
David Ross
Jason Varitek

Personally, since I think Hanigan is a real good starter, I wouldn't throw too much money at the position. A $2-3 million backup should suffice.

In terms of outfielders, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth and David DeJesus (who has an option) are the potential players worth acquiring as no-brainer upgrades. Of course, Crawford will wind up getting a hefty deal wherever he goes and will be too rich for the Reds' blood. Werth too. DeJesus would be a nice addition but might have to be acquired this month in order to have a shot at him next year.

Again, it seems the Reds will be better off saving the money and using an in-house option (Heisey, Alonso or Gomes).

To me, short of acquiring Dan Haren, Roy Oswalt or Ricky Nolasco, the starting pitching probably won't be dealt with for next season. Brandon Webb is an intriguing possibility. Beyond that, I'd spend resources on the bullpen.

Arthur Rhodes
Jeremy Affeldt
Grant Balfour
Matt Guerrier
J.J. Putz
Jon Rauch

Thoughts? Comments? Additions? Subtractions? Suggestions?

[mth123]

That $18 Million in raises for Cueto, Votto and Bruce seems a little excessive. I'm guessing Votto gets about $7 Million, Cueto about $4 Million and Bruce about $2.5 Million. I could be wrong though. Its the big unknown for next year.

$5 Million in Buy-outs for Harang, Arroyo and Cabrera and $1.6 Million in minor league salary for Alonso and Chapman. Add another couple million for guys who may end on the DL that makes the major league 25 man payroll about $68 Million. Assuming Cozart/Janish man SS and Arredondo moves into Rhodes slot (I know Arredondo is not a lefty), the Reds would have about $16 Million to fill catcher and TOR starter. I'd be tempted to go with Hanigan/Corky behind the plate with the idea that Mesoraco will be ready in June or so and save the rest for the TOR starter. (Roy Oswalt's contract would be a perfect fit).

If the Reds could deal Harang at the deadline and rid themselves of his buy-out, it would give them another $2 Million to spend.

[Mario-Rijo]

I'd probably bring in Bard Or Varitek as a low cost option who could platoon with Hanny a bit. I doubt Mes will be ready next year especially considering he's in this organization with this regime, they are very methodical in moving players up usually. Corky is a decent 3rd option in AAA for one more season.

SS I'd go with Janish/Cozart, that's an easy one looking at the other possibilities. Does Cabrera have an option? Don't think we wanna bring him back at this point, it'll be time for Cozart to get his shot. I think Macier Izturis is also gonna be a FA (though don't know how thought he signed a 3 year deal) but he is listed at 3B, but he is a solid SS option as always.

Definitely wanna offer arbitration to Arthur and I can live with whichever way that works out. Beyond him I doubt I'd pursue any other relief arms I think we have enough and with Arredondo hopefully on his way back we are sitting ok. This is assuming of course guys start panning out the way we'd hope.

And LF could be filled with some combination of Heisey/Dickerson/Frazier/Alonso. If DeJesus would come cheap fine but I doubt that happens. I still wonder if it might be wise to trade Brandon. I'd hate to do that but if the payroll doesn't increase and you can make a shrewd deal there it would go a long way towards improving the team overall. Not sure what deal you'd make but I could see replacing BP with Mark Ellis or perhaps even Akinora Iwamura (if healthy) at a much cheaper price. Maybe Brandon, Maloney/Owings and Cordero for Joakim Soria and Alberto Callaspo then you wouldn't even need to sign a FA 2B.

C - Hanigan
1B - Votto
2B - Callaspo
SS - Cozart
3B - Rolen
LF - Alonso
CF - Stubbs
RF - Bruce

C - Varitek/Bard
CIF/COF - Frazier
MIF - Janish
OF - Heisey
OF - Dickerson

Volquez
Leake
Cueto
Chapman
Bailey/Wood

Soria
Rhodes
Masset
Bray
Burton (not giving up on him)
Arredondo
Ondrusek

Some serious wishful thinking there but a blueprint along the lines of what I'd attempt to do. Don't know what that would come out to payroll wise but I'd have to believe it would be significantly lower even after all the raises.

[TheNext44]

Here's a more detailed look at what next season's payroll looks like via Cot's. The names of some the minimum players will probably be different, but I don't think the money will. I also based the arb numbers on comps from the last two year, but they could end up being higher or lower, but probably not by much. The big saver would be signing any of the big three to extensions, which would lower their cost in 2011 greatly. I would say that if the Reds signed all three, the could save at least $5M over all in 2011. This assumes that the Reds pick up Gomes' option, but don't on Arroyo, Harang and Cabrera. I would agree with mth123 and add a few million for guys on the DL and other X factors.

This would give the Reds about $10M minimum to spend to upgrade, and possibly as much as $17M. More if they increase payroll, which is a real possibility, especially if they make the playoffs. So really, very similar numbers to what has been discussed, just a more detailed look at how it breaks down for those who might be skeptical.

Cordero		12.1
Philips		11.1
Rolen		8.1
Votto		7
Cueto		4
Bruce		3
Chapman	 	1
Masset		1.5
Volquez		1
Gomes		1.75
Alonso		0.6
Dickerson	0.5
Ondrusek	0.5
Miller		0.5
Gomes		0.5
Hanigan		0.5
Herrera		0.5
Owings		0.5
Bailey		0.5
Leake		0.5
Janish		0.5
Woods		0.5
Heisey		0.5
Stubbs		0.5
Cozart	 	0.5
Smith		0.5
Bray		0.5
Harang		2
Arroyo		2
Cabrera		1
		
Total		64.15

[top6]

Don't you think they'll be able to bump payroll up slightly, given that they'll be coming off a World Series win?

[mth123]

This thread points out the urgency to deal Harang. Not only are there better guys pushing this year, but getting rid of that $2 Million buy-out would be really helpful.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I'd bet Ramon Hernandez is back next year at a bargain price. I'd sign Votto long term after he finishes his .320/35/110 season

[fearofpopvol1]

This thread points out the urgency to deal Harang. Not only are there better guys pushing this year, but getting rid of that $2 Million buy-out would be really helpful.

I think if he could get healthy and throw a few good games before the deadline, it's very possible. Wood could then step in for him. His injury came at an awful time.

[mth123]

I think if he could get healthy and throw a few good games before the deadline, it's very possible. Wood could then step in for him. His injury came at an awful time.

Agreed, and unless he can impress some one enough in a rehab start, its why he has to be given a rotation spot when he's ready. He'd probably clear waivers, but maybe the Reds put him on Waivers on Aug 1 and simply don't pull him back if anyone claims him.

[Chip R]

I would think that Cabrera would be back as well. I think he has an option.

[WVRedsFan]

Your shortstop is on the bench now. Janish won't hit much above OCab (~.250) but his defense, as we saw today makes up for it.

[Scrap Irony]

If they've got somewhere between $10-25 million to spend, this is what I'd do:

Starting Rotation
Volquez
Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Wood
Comment: Young and talented. If Cueto and Volquez can move to that next level, they won't need an ace. If not, they're short top-end talent. Chapman, Maloney, Klinker, and a couple minor league free agent types provide depth, some of it quality. Still, re-signing Arroyo would be a decent move, as would signing a veteran like Javier Vazquez, Ted Lilly, or Brandon Webb would be a good gamble.

Relievers
Cordero
Masset
Bray
Ondrusek
Owings
Smith
Maloney
Chapman
Arrendondo
Comment: Nice arms, but they need a bellweather closer, IMO. None are available on the free agent market. I'd probably groom Chapman as closer and see how he responds. If not, I guess a combination of Cordero, Arredondo, and perhaps a Kerry Wood could be serviceable.

Starting Lineup
2B Phillips
LF Heisey
1B Votto
3B Rolen
RF Bruce
C Miguel Olivo
CF Stubbs
SS Janish
Comment: The big addition, obviously, is Olivo. He makes the lineup much more solid and gives the team a well above average offense. I'd pay him pretty well ($16 million for two years should get it done) to make him my starting catcher. If Olivo isn't available or non-receptive, I'd target Martinez (same contract and same result), John Buck, or aother offensive catcher. Hanigan would get the same job he has now, while the team waits on Mesoraco (or Grandal) to get through AA and AAA. (If no good offensive catcher can be found, I'd be tempted to try a Mesoraco/ Hanigan time share, with the hope that Mesoraco's power offsets his inexperience.

Bench
Hanigan C
Ty Wiggington IF/OF
Gomes IF/OF
Valaika MI
Dorn OF
Comments: I'm really upgrading the bench with veteran bats and rookies with promise. There are very few true gloves here. (Hanigan only, FWIW.) But Wiggington, Valaika, and Dorn all play multiple positions and Gomes can play both corner OF positions. More importantly, each provides a bat that should grade out plus. They should really help out if someone gets hurt. Frazier, Francisco and Alonso provide AAA insurance should none of these work out. If Wiggington is too expensive, I'd target Bill Hall or Mike Lowell, but for different reasons. Lowell could caddy Rolen at third and Votto at 1B, Hall could play CF and middle infield spots. (Though not well.)

[corkedbat]

LF Chris Heisey/Felix Perez
2B Brandon Phillips
1B Joey Votto
3B Scott Rolen
RF Jay Bruce
CF Drew Stubbs/Chris Dickerson
CA Ramon Henandez/Ryan Hanigan (Devin Mesoraco?)
SS Paul Janish/Zach Cozart

UT Todd Frazier
UT Juan Francisco

SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Jonny Cueto
SP Travis Wood/Aroldis Chapman
SP Edinson Volquez
SP Mike Leake
RP Micah Owings/Sam Lecure
RP Jordan Smith/Logan Ondruzek/Enerio Del Rosario
RP Bill Bray (Donnie Joseph)
PR Jose Arredondo
RP Arthur Rhodes
RP Nick Massett
CL Francisco Cordero

If I had to make one subtraction, it would be finding a taker for Cordero and finding another young closer candidate. The surprise isRhodes returning for one more season (to buy time for Joseph). There will be a a name not listed on the bench and one in the Pen. The Reds will make a decent sized splash in the free agency or trade market (or both). A bat in the lineup or TOR starter are most likely spots. Another healthy year for Rolen is a must if they stand pat with the lineup.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Seems as if people really think Homer Bailey is gone. Unfortunate

[GoReds]

Seems as if people really think Homer Bailey is gone. Unfortunate

I don't think Homer is gone, necessarily, but relying on Homer to be a solid contributor at this point is akin to building on a sand foundation.