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Thread: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

  1. #1
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Link.

    Interesting!

    Perhaps the most surprising aspect of his game is on the basepaths. No, heís not much of a basestealer. In 2006 he stole 19 bases in 117 games. Since then, heís stolen 30 in nearly 500 games spanning multiple levels. Thatís not the surprising part. Instead itís Bruceís ability to take the extra base. Baseball-Reference tracks this measure and the definition of what constitutes and extra base is pretty simple: itís any advancement where the lead runner isnít forced by the player behind him. Say Bruce is on first base when a single is hit into right field, if Bruce takes second and third during the run of play, heís credited with an extra base taken.
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Interesting article... and yet another example of how valuable he is to the team already purely in regards to doing the "little things" that matter but don't show up on the traditional stat sheet...
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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Interesting article... and yet another example of how valuable he is to the team already purely in regards to doing the "little things" that matter but don't show up on the traditional stat sheet...
    And when he finally gets it all figured out at the plate, watch out! That is why I am still of the opinion of signing him to a LTC ASAP.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    And when he finally gets it all figured out at the plate, watch out! That is why I am still of the opinion of signing him to a LTC ASAP.
    Same here. He may be scuffling a bit right now, but there is simply no doubting his abilities. He's gonna be a MONSTER.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
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  6. #5
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    This article is an example of why I really love statistical analysis--despite the fact that it runs rather contrary to my natural tendencies. In this case, I think we're seeing stats come darn close to capturing a quality of Bruce's game that would have been filed as an "intangible" beforehand.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    And when he finally gets it all figured out at the plate, watch out! That is why I am still of the opinion of signing him to a LTC ASAP.
    I wish I knew you'd be right.

    I am starting to wonder if he's ever more then average. He is reminding me every day more and more of Austin Kearns.

    My eyes just tell me a few things. He's fairly one dimensional at the plate; he's limited in his possibilities at the plate--where as a Votto or Phillips can fight off tough pitches to earn pitches to hit; Bruce seems to be a simple approach for an opposing pitcher. Basically, he is the easiest out in our lineup right now other then the pitcher.
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruce32 View Post
    I wish I knew you'd be right.

    I am starting to wonder if he's ever more then average. He is reminding me every day more and more of Austin Kearns.

    My eyes just tell me a few things. He's fairly one dimensional at the plate; he's limited in his possibilities at the plate--where as a Votto or Phillips can fight off tough pitches to earn pitches to hit; Bruce seems to be a simple approach for an opposing pitcher. Basically, he is the easiest out in our lineup right now other then the pitcher.

    He's 23... change your name please.
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    He's 23... change your name please.
    Absolutely. Bruce and Stubbs need to be trotted out there day in and day out. Let them play every day and it'll pay big dividends. This club is being built for the long haul. Remember that.
    As God as my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.

  10. #9
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Bruce just needs a hot streak. It's coming. And don't forget he had a 3-run jack robbed on Friday with a nice catch from Fowler. I agree that his plate discipline is less-than-desirable right now, but like others have mentioned, he's only 23 and is a hell of a talent. A lot more natural power than someone like Kearns. The ball just jumps off Bruce's bat. He just needs to acquire more plate discipline and he will be fine. Plus, I love that he's an excellent defensive RF.

  11. #10
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    He's 23... change your name please.
    Some see what I'm saying and some don't. There's nothing i'd love more then to be wrong about Bruce now.
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    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruce32 View Post
    Some see what I'm saying and some don't. There's nothing i'd love more then to be wrong about Bruce now.
    I feel you bro. You have attached your name to Jay Bruce, he's probably your favorite player and you're a little frustrated right now. I'm frustrated with him too, but he'll snap out of it.

  13. #12
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    The Reds have had only 19 players 23 or younger who qualified for the batting title in the last 110 years, Bruce is one of them, calling him one dimensional at this point is a tad bit premature.

    Code:
    CINCINNATI REDS
    SEASON
    MODERN (1900-)
    AGE <= 23
    EXTRA BASE HITS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OBA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    SLG displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RUNS CREATED/GAME             YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     EBH      OBA      SLG      AGE    
    1    Sam Crawford             1901     3.81     8.94     5.13       25     .378     .524       21   
    2    Sam Crawford             1902     3.60     8.02     4.42       20     .386     .461       22   
    3    Frank Robinson           1959     3.20     8.13     4.93       28     .391     .583       23   
    4    Frank Robinson           1956     2.68     7.43     4.75       26     .379     .558       20   
    5    Frank Robinson           1957     2.62     7.44     4.82       18     .376     .529       21   
    6    Vada Pinson              1961     2.36     7.28     4.93       13     .379     .504       22   
    7    Vada Pinson              1959     2.29     7.22     4.93       28     .371     .509       20   
    8    Johnny Bench             1970     2.24     7.14     4.89       38     .345     .587       22   
    9    Johnny Bench             1969     1.80     6.20     4.40       15     .353     .487       21   
    10   Doc Hoblitzell           1909     1.77     5.78     4.01       12     .364     .418       20   
    11   Adam Dunn                2002     1.68     6.70     5.02        8     .400     .454       22   
    12   Grady Hatton             1946     1.60     6.17     4.57        7     .369     .422       23   
    13   Bobby Tolan              1969     1.44     5.84     4.40       13     .347     .474       23   
    14   Frank Robinson           1958     1.41     6.32     4.91       17     .350     .504       22   
    15   Vada Pinson              1960     1.07     5.68     4.60       20     .339     .472       21   
    16   Vada Pinson              1962     0.97     5.81     4.84       16     .341     .477       23   
    17   Tony Cuccinello          1931     0.94     5.99     5.05        8     .374     .431       23   
    18   Johnny Bench             1968     0.57     4.32     3.74       23     .311     .433       20   
    19   Dan Driessen             1974     0.50     4.93     4.43        5     .347     .400       22   
    20   Doc Hoblitzell           1911     0.42     5.21     4.79        2     .342     .415       22   
    21   Doc Hoblitzell           1910     0.26     4.64     4.38        6     .332     .380       21   
    22   Doc Hoblitzell           1912     0.23     5.26     5.03        8     .352     .405       23   
    23   Pete Rose                1963     0.16     4.26     4.10       -3     .334     .371       22   
    24   Les Scarsella            1936     -.01     5.18     5.19       -1     .335     .412       22   
    25   Tony Cuccinello          1930     -.11     6.28     6.39       -5     .380     .451       22   
    26   Leo Cardenas             1962     -.24     4.60     4.84        1     .341     .411       23   
    27   Harry Craft              1938     -.35     4.51     4.86        7     .305     .418       23   
    28   Johnny Bench             1971     -.38     3.89     4.27        9     .299     .423       23   
    29   Mike Mowrey              1907     -.53     3.64     4.17        1     .308     .321       23   
    30   Pete Rose                1964     -.79     3.54     4.32      -18     .319     .326       23   
    31   Roy McMillan             1952    -1.06     3.60     4.65        1     .306     .350       22   
    32   Alex Kampouris           1935    -1.52     3.68     5.20       -3     .295     .361       22   
    33   Harry Steinfeldt         1900    -2.03     3.73     5.76        4     .292     .341       22   
    34   Roy McMillan             1953    -2.46     2.93     5.40      -25     .290     .302       23

  14. #13
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Of course, we all knew Bruce would be the guy singled out to be a malingerer, or a bust eventually.

    His middle name should be DavisDunn.

    Me? What's not to like about watching a 23 year old with moon shot power, a cannon for an arm, and an obvious love of the game?
    It's going to be a super gas when he gets all of the kinks worked out.

    We can the say we knew him when as he cashes in with some other team.

    Enjoy him while we can.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  15. #14
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    This is when you sign a player to a long-term contract, not when everyone knows he's good, like Votto. It's when not even the player is sure about it and needs the security. Of course, you have to be able to afford the risk. You can't turn around years later and say that you were one piece away but the Bruce and Stubbs contracts had your hands tied.

  16. #15
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    Re: Fangraphs: Jay Bruce's Oddity

    Just to pass along something I was sent in a message, someone at the game last night says he believes Bruce is hurt, as he spent a good portion of the game talking to the trainer last evening during the game. That explains why he might be out of the lineup today against a RHP
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