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Thread: Zack Cozart

  1. #1
    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
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    Zack Cozart

    I know there is a prospect profile in the Forum somewhere but I wanted to open a fresh debate about his future value to the Reds.

    He is a heavily debated player in the Minors (who isn't?) that some feel is a legit prospect, while others feel he isn't to much to get excited about. (once again par for the course)

    So I did what I always do and decided to research it and put the numbers on the table in comparison to other teams SS prospects.

    So I decided to go with equal players at the same level. Born in 1985 or later, in AAA for less than 2 full years and have at least half their seasons AB's in AAA. International League players only since the PCL is a way bit hitter friendly.

    Let's start with Cozart...

    Zack Cozart (24) Cincinnati:
    .330/.450/.780 in 378 AB's
    9 Errors in 95 Games, 22 SB's in 25 Attempts - 88%
    16.8% K Rate
    8.0% BB Rate

    __________________________________________________ _________________________

    Argenis Diaz (23) Pittsburgh:

    .299/.284/.583 in 243 AB's
    6 Errors in 71 Games, 3 SB's in 4 Attempts - 75%
    20.5% K Rate
    6.2% BB Rate

    Never had a SLG% over .382 or an OBP over .342 for a season.


    Brian Bocock (25) Philadelphia:

    .254/.279/.533 in 240 AB's
    7 Errors in 74 Games, 4 SB's in 7 Attempts - 57%
    22.5% K Rate
    7.0% BB Rate

    Career high OPS is .656 in 2007 / Played in the Majors in 2008 with a .414 OPS


    Eduardo Nunez (23) NY Yankees:

    .360/.409/.769
    13 Errors in 93 Games, 18 SB in 21 Attemps - 86%
    14.2% K Rate
    6.9% BB Rate

    Lacks power. Never walked more than 32 times in any full season league.


    So what does this show us. Among the players that are his equal...

    He has the best BB rate. Second lowest K rate. Highest SLG%. 2nd highest OBP. Highest OPS. Most SB's, Highest SB success rate, Most HR's, Most RBI's, Commits one error every 10.6 games. (Cabrera 9.4 with less range)

    He leads all AAA Shortstops (INT/PCL) - (All Age Ranges and experience) in HR's, SB's, Runs, XBH's and second in Hits and RBI's. He does this in a park that is termed pitcher friendly and can sap RHH power. (see Stubbs, Drew)

    So what in all this doesn't make him a top flight SS prospect?

    I see the term "overvalue" our own prospects alot. I'd like to think most of the prospects are undervalued.

    Votto is a home grown MVP Candidate out OPSing Albert Pujols. Bruce and Stubbs are 25 and under OF's with less than 2 years AB's, Plus Gloves, Range and Arms. Both are Sporting over a .750 OPS and over a 100+ OPS+. Cueto a #3 starter, under 25 with a 123 ERA+, Travis Wood a #5 starter in 4 starts has a ERA+ of 210, Mike Leake a #4 starter has a ERA+ of 119 and never been in the minors, Chris Heisey has a OPS+ over a 100. Ondrusek with a ERA+ of 101 and a ERA of 0.96 in his last 20 games since being called back up. Jordan Smith hasn't even been to AAA and has an ERA+ of 119. Not to mention a DL'd Bailey

    We have Cozart, Chapman, Mesoraco, Sappelt, Perez, Francisco, Alonso, Frazier, Valakia, Dorn, LeCure, Klinker, Valiquette, Joseph, Del Rosario all more than likely capable major leaguers. All home grown. Name one other team in baseball that can brag this.

    All these players, less Votto, are going to be under 26 at the start of next year and Votto will only be 27.


    Older guys like Hanigan 30 (145 OPS+), Janish, 27 (129 OPS+), Dickerson 28 (97 OPS+ in 2009) all came from the system as well. All 3 are among the elite when it comes to being defenders on the field. All 3 are GG capable.


    That's 13 players, 11 on the active roster that are home developed, above average, ML players. So chances are, that Cozart, being developed in the same system, is being undervalued. He plays a plus glove and range with an average accurate arm. Hitting in GABP he could be a 20/20 SS easily, with 20+ 2B's and around .425 SLG% year one. Even a low, low .300 OBP would sport a .725+ OPS. .085 points better than the current SS. At a 6 year discount.

    Only Furcal, Hanley Ramirez, Reyes and Drew are above that line in the NL. Alex Gonzalez was before the trade in the AL. Only Pennington (.736) and
    Alexei Ramirez (.726) are above that line in the AL now that he is gone. Derek Jeter has a .719 OPS this season.

    Cozart has special tools and believe it or not a special bat that has performed and adjusted to every level. He could be an All Star if he goes, .350/.450/.800 which I think he is capable of in one or two seasons. He is more than likely better at the plate than 20 of the Starting SS in the Majors. More than likely in the top half of the defensive ones, so why are most undervaluing him so much?
    Last edited by nemesis; 07-20-2010 at 04:49 AM.
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  3. #2
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    Re: Zack Cozart

    Nice analysis.

    Cozart is developing nicely. Defense, speed and some EBH power. Would like to see him get a shot next year.
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    Member medford's Avatar
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    Re: Zack Cozart

    nice work. I've only seen Cozart play 1x, while he was with the Dragons. At the time, there were questions about his bat, if it was ever good enough to translate along with his defense into a regular major leaguer. In that game, I saw Cozart get to the plate 4 times I think, he drove the ball hard twice (once for a double, another for a loud out), made one poor 1st pitch swing and popped up, and what impressed me the most was a hit and run situation that he executed perfectly, driving the ball into the gap the 2nd baseman just vacated for another hit and moving the runner from 1st to 3rd. I never got to see him get tested in the field to any length, but that 1 game convinced me that he had a pretty good idea of what to do at the plate, and enough power to drive the ball into the gaps with some regularity.

    those numbers above look pretty solid for a #7 hitter type in the majors, though didn't he get off to a slow start like just about everyone else in AAA? It would be nice if he could get on base a little more and make a solid #2 hitter. As a shortstop, if Dusty is still around, he's probably going to be pencilled into the 2 hole anyways, but it sure would be nice if either Stubbs or Cozart could get on base a little more often and hit either #1 or #2 and allow the other to hit #7 ahead of the catcher. Perhaps Mes helps the lineup constrcution in a couple of years if he continues on his path to being a regular catcher worthy of a spot higher than the 8 hole. Having stubbs & Cozart hit 7/8 would provide some real solid power and defense ahead of the pitcher, as well as some speed to make those bunt situation a little easier to execute.

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    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Zack Cozart

    Nemesis, thanks for your analysis. I agree with everything you said. I would really like to see Cozart be the opening day Shortstop with Janish as his back-up. Throw OCab's money at Arroyo to stay and extensions for Bruce and Votto.

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    Re: Zack Cozart

    His consistent development this year is right up there with the breakout season of Mez, importance wise for me. (This is in reference to how it is helping the major league team this/next year not so far into the future.) Him showing that he should be able to hold down the SS spot means we can let Ocab walk and save some money to be spent in a more problem area like the bullpen or LF/bench.
    "When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Zack Cozart

    If OCab walks, I expect Janish to be the starter, with Cozart his primary backup until the positions are reversed. That will only happen if Janish can't OPS .730 as a regular.

    just my opinion.
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    Re: Zack Cozart

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    If OCab walks, I expect Janish to be the starter, with Cozart his primary backup until the positions are reversed. That will only happen if Janish can't OPS .730 as a regular.

    just my opinion.
    That very well could be. I would expect the bar to be set much much lower for Janish though. If .640 is good enough for Cabrera to stay in the lineup day in and day out with neutral UZR defense, then Janish would be extended the same line with Plus Plus UZR defense you'd think. I could see Cozart having to go on a tear to get the SS job at some point next year. I wish they could add him to the 40 man for September. Not that he'd see playing time.
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    Re: Zack Cozart

    Cozart is a shortstop who has solid plate discipline, 15-20 HR pop and an above average glove. For anyone who isn't sold on him as a prospect, I just have to ask.... why? Sure, he might only hit you .250, but he is going to walk and hit some HR's while playing good defense. Not everyone has to profile as an all star to be a good prospect.

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    Re: Zack Cozart

    It all depends on how good his glove is for me honestly.

  11. #10
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Zack Cozart

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    It all depends on how good his glove is for me honestly.
    Not as good as Janish. But still quite good.

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    Re: Zack Cozart

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Not as good as Janish. But still quite good.
    Yea, I knew it was pretty good.

    One question though, I know Janish has a super arm at short, is there a chance Cozart might be the better range SS or is janish better there also?

  13. #12
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Zack Cozart

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    Yea, I knew it was pretty good.

    One question though, I know Janish has a super arm at short, is there a chance Cozart might be the better range SS or is janish better there also?
    Similar range, less arm (though still plenty good, just not a plus plus arm like Janish has).

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    Re: Zack Cozart

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Similar range, less arm (though still plenty good, just not a plus plus arm like Janish has).
    sounds good

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    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
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    Re: Zack Cozart

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Not everyone has to profile as an all star to be a good prospect.
    This.

    I think alot of my frustration with the masses is unless a guy has a TOR arm or at least 3 plus tools, he immediately isn't a prospect worthy of playing for the Reds. There are not many SS in the entire minors that profile as .750+ OPS guys in the ML who also play decent D at the position. Cozart is one of them. Short of Mesoraco he is to me the single most cost saving, important prospect in the Reds system.
    Last edited by nemesis; 07-20-2010 at 10:49 PM.
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    Re: Zack Cozart

    I'm not sure how likely it is Cabrera won't come back. I feel like he will. I hope I'm wrong and I hope Janish is the starter next year. I think he'll out hit a rookie Cozart, who can ride the bench like Janish has. Seems fair. Can Cozart fill in at 2b or 3b?
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