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Thread: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    The Reds played their 100th game of the season today and currently have a 55-45 record at the 100 game mark. How many wins do you think it will take for the Reds to reach the playoffs? With 62 games remaining, if the Reds play .500 baseball the rest of the way that would put them at 86-76. That's not enough to make the playoffs, IMO. I think 90 wins could get them in. In order to do that, the Reds would have to go 35-27 over their final 62 games. The starting pitching will have to continue pitching like they have lately, and the offense will need guys like Bruce and Gomes to step it up, but it's doable, IMO.

    Let's hear your opinion. Are the Reds capable of winning 90 games?
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    The Reds are on pace for 89 wins.

    I'm guessing that they or the Cards will do better than that to make the playoffs.

    Probably 92 might do it.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    If we end up with 90, I think we're more likely to win the division than the wild card. I'd be a whole lot more comfortable with 92. Of course, that's going to require near .600 ball the rest of the way.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    If we end up with 90, I think we're more likely to win the division than the wild card. I'd be a whole lot more comfortable with 92. Of course, that's going to require near .600 ball the rest of the way.
    Which is pretty unlikely.

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    I really, really want the Reds to make the playoffs this season but I will say this - if this team wins 88+ games it will be a huge step in the right direction no matter what. I think next year's team will be better. Volquez will be back for the full season. Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs will have another year of experience under their belts. Aroldis Chapman may be ready to contribute by then. Not to mention the F.O. will have the whole offseason to upgrade the shortstop and left field positions. With that said, I want to make the playoffs this season. Hopefully Walt can upgrade the team in the next few days to give the team a better chance in the final 62 games.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    If the NL West separates itself a bit, it could take 94-95 wins. If the West teams all knock each other back a peg, anywhere from 88-92 could be enough. Look out for the Phillies, though. I expect a huge August from them, Oswalt or no Oswalt. They will get Utley back and they know the drill...they will make a nice run. If any team is going to make a major charge, they are the most likely.
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    I'll say 92 wins gets the divison and 89 the wild card

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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    if you take the thread title literally, 1 more win then the cardinals

    but honestly I think 95 wins is what its going to take. The Cardinals will likely bring in a key player, and I would still not be surprised if Jocketty does something also. The Reds and the Cards have the easiest schedule in baseball, plus they are playing teams that will be dismantled by August. I am aiming high, but I think that is what it will take to win the Central.
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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Voice of IH View Post
    if you take the thread title literally, 1 more win then the cardinals

    but honestly I think 95 wins is what its going to take. The Cardinals will likely bring in a key player, and I would still not be surprised if Jocketty does something also. The Reds and the Cards have the easiest schedule in baseball, plus they are playing teams that will be dismantled by August. I am aiming high, but I think that is what it will take to win the Central.
    I doubt it takes 95 just to make the playoffs. 90's a good threshold.

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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    94

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    Lets Go 'Bird' Hunting The Voice of IH's Avatar
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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I doubt it takes 95 just to make the playoffs. 90's a good threshold.
    that's to win the central, I agree that 90 could get you in with the wild card...JMHO
    Hey Sparky! Indian Hill English teachers taught me everything I know!

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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Voice of IH View Post
    that's to win the central, I agree that 90 could get you in with the wild card...JMHO
    This version of the Cards isn't a 94 win club.

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    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    I'm not sure just how many wins it would take for the Reds to win the division or to claim the wild card, I do know the Reds must play better than they have for the last month to win this division.

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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    We win 92 we're in. I was ready to post that as I entered the thread
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    Re: 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Not to mention the F.O. will have the whole offseason to upgrade the shortstop and left field positions.
    I think an everyday Heisey upgrades the LF position now.

    Gomes in May:

    (.364 BA) .420/.636/1.056 10 BB in 88 Ab's

    Gomes in April, June, July combined:

    (.236 BA) .271/.395/.666 11 BB in 225 Ab's

    Not to mention a -30 UZR in LF.

    Not a snowflakes chance you pick up his $1.8 mil option next year.

    He literally is living off one big month right now. He needs to be platooned, badly. This is where the manager and his archaic baseball beliefs hurt this franchise. He sees those RBI numbers and just thinks he is a everyday ballplayer. But the real numbers, show he is dragging this offense down with him. Once Rolen is back, you have to, have to, have to make a switch.

    93 is the Wild card number. 90 is the Division.
    Last edited by nemesis; 07-25-2010 at 11:53 PM.
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