Ronald Torreyes

[Hoosier Red]

Once again, a complete whiff on the point.

Here's what I think you're missing mem, the generalities play a part in how the prospect projects.
Not height so much, but if a guy is only 130 lbs, even at age 17, there is only so much room for him to fill out.

Tools like hitting and fielding are important, but how do you measure them? Only through stats? If that were the case there'd be no need for scouts, you'd just promote the players who have performed the best.

The reason every one in the minor league system projected Drew Stubbs as a potential 20 HR guy, even though he couldn't hit 20 homers at various stages in the minors if you spotted him the first 15 is because of his physical tools.

Torreyes may be the exception, but the exception gets treated differently than the rule. Whereas the rule is treated as a top propsect until he proves that he isn't, the exception won't be treated as a top prospect until he proves he is. And even then there will be skepticism.

[Homer Bailey]

I'll chime in with just a quick thought. Simply naming short players that have had success is great to prove the point that short players CAN have success in the major leagues, but it does not provide any evidence that it is LIKELY that a short player will succeed.

[dougdirt]

There are two reasons people downgrade prospects who are little guys. Projectability and prejudice. I'm glad the Reds didn't buy into that thinking when scouting Torreyes. The key is in recognizing which guys break the mold. It's not easy. Pedroia lasted into the supplemental 1st round, meaning most, if not all, MLB clubs passed on him at least once.

Keep in mind that Torreyes' numbers in the VSL were stratospheric, and he was playing with mostly older kids. Check VSL stats going back a few years. What he did as a 17 year-old was phenomenal. Add in the anecdotal reports we've seen about his defense, and it is certainly possible, IMO, that this is a kid who will crush his limitations.

Two points here. If we assume that Pedroia is as his listed 5'8" and 180 pounds, he has 1 inch in height on Torreyes (which isn't important at all) but very likely 40-50 pounds of good weight on him (which is very important).

To your second point, you very well could be right. What he did in the VSL was incredibly impressive. Bat on ball skills were beyond outstanding, especially in a league where the pitchers are incredibly wild. There are certainly signs that he could be a guy who can be an exception. But those signs have only been shown at levels where the other players on the field also have a bunch of giant question marks too. The VSL, while its technically full of professional players, is so far below even the GCL/AZL in terms of talent, its not funny. The AZL numbers were nice in terms of the strike out rate and the solid pop he showed.

But as far as filling out.... I can't look at this picture of him and see him filling out much. Or this one. He just looks like a little kid still and most guys at 17 that look like that aren't going to be filling out all that much.

Again, that isn't to say he can't be the exception.... because he could be. But after 115 PA in the US, I think its a little bit early to say that he already is the exception. Watch, hope he continues to do what he has been doing (with a few more walks) and wait.

[lollipopcurve]

Put it this way, Doug -- my guess is that if you're a scout, you don't recommend Torreyes to your supervisor.

I'm glad the Reds have seen him differently.

[dougdirt]

Put it this way, Doug -- my guess is that if you're a scout, you don't recommend Torreyes to your supervisor.

I'm glad the Reds have seen him differently.

That isn't true at all. The Reds have over 200 players in the minor league system between the DSL/VSL through Louisville. Each year we see a shuffle of 50+ guys with signings, releases and retirements. You have to fill those teams. A player who shows a major league tool, or even something close to it, especially at 16/17 is going to get recommended. I would venture that Torreyes is at least rocking something similar to that on two fronts right now with his contact/bat control and his defense. That absolutely gets you mentioned to a supervising scout.

I ranked Torreyes among the Top 40 prospects in the entire system. I absolutely would have called my supervisor and provided a full report on a kid like that. It doesn't mean his OFP report wouldn't list below average power though because of his size/projectability.

There is a difference between being cautious on the future view of a player and writing him off. You still seem to believe that the two things are the same.

[membengal]

I'll chime in with just a quick thought. Simply naming short players that have had success is great to prove the point that short players CAN have success in the major leagues, but it does not provide any evidence that it is LIKELY that a short player will succeed.

Duh. Of course it doesn't. It was offered as a helpful reminder that dismissive generalizations are not helpful, and that some succeed at that height, evenly wildly succeed. I was hoping for more discussion of Torryes than how tall he is. Scrap and lollipop are trying, but they're being roundly ignored in their efforts to actually discuss the player and what he did on the field last year, as opposed to how he measured as a 17-year-old.

[dougdirt]

Duh. Of course it doesn't. It was offered as a helpful reminder that dismissive generalizations are not helpful, and that some succeed at that height, evenly wildly succeed. I was hoping for more discussion of Torryes than how tall he is. Scrap is trying, but he's being roundly ignored in his efforts to actually discuss the player and what he did on the field last year, as opposed to how he measured as a 17-year-old.

And again, no one is dismissing him. They are saying its going to be an uphill battle. Big difference.

[texasdave]

And again, no one is dismissing him. They are saying its going to be an uphill battle. Big difference.

As it is with all players trying to navigate the minor league obtacles and make it to "The Show".

[dougdirt]

As it is with all players trying to navigate the minor league obtacles and make it to "The Show".

Certainly, but some guys have bigger issues to overcome than others. The 6'4" right hander with the 96 MPH fastball is going to have to overcome less than the 5'6" screwballer. Doesn't mean that Danny Ray couldn't do it, but he had to overcome a lot of things to do it. Things that a 6'4" righty who throws 96 wouldn't have.

[Scrap Irony]

And again, no one is dismissing him. They are saying its going to be an uphill battle. Big difference.

I suppose I have a hard time seeing why Torreyes is not mentioned at all.

Because of possible size problems? Because he might get the bat knocked out of his hands at a higher level? I grudgingly accept that may be a possibility for a Billy Hamilton, as his power numbers are lacking.

But Torreyes? That argument holds little water.

No one in the Venezuelan League over the past six years has touched the numbers Torreyes put up in 2010. His OPS was the highest by a 17-year-old in the league. It's among the top OPSes the league has ever seen.

I don't care what size he is (and he's listed at 5'10", BTW, and 150 lbs), that's getting it done. His isolated power is not just good for his age, it's remarkably good. (It's much higher, for example, than that of Yorman Rodriguez, Billy Hamilton, Juan Duran, or any 17 or 18-year-old kid the Reds have trotted out in the past five years.)

Sure, you could point to a small sample size, but the kid also got it done in the Arizona League. (Both with power and BA.) His age 17 year is similar enough to the following guys from the five years before:

Mike Trout
Randal Grichuk
Jonathan Garcia
Engel Beltre
Alex Liddi

That's it. He's also the only 2B on that list.

[bubbachunk]

This topic has gotten so circular, it is not accomplishing anything.

[dougdirt]

I suppose I have a hard time seeing why Torreyes is not mentioned at all.

Because of possible size problems? Because he might get the bat knocked out of his hands at a higher level? I grudgingly accept that may be a possibility for a Billy Hamilton, as his power numbers are lacking.

Torreyes had a .145 Isolated SLG this season in the US. Billy Hamilton's was .138. Why are Hamilton's lacking, but Torreyes isn't? They are basically interchangable.

No one in the Venezuelan League over the past six years has touched the numbers Torreyes put up in 2010. His OPS was the highest by a 17-year-old in the league. It's among the top OPSes the league has ever seen.

What he did was incredible. The VSL has absolutely no bearing on the future performance of players though. In its history, there is next to no correlation to VSL success to success in the US. The talent levels are all over the place. The pitchers are so far apart in talent level, its not funny. The fields are in rough shape. Defenders are rough. While its nice to see VSL/DSL numbers, they should generally be taken with a huge grain of salt. What Torreyes did in the AZL is 1000 times more important than what he did in the VSL. While he was there, he showed outstanding contact ability and solid pop for a middle infielder.

I don't care what size he is (and he's listed at 5'10", BTW, and 150 lbs), that's getting it done. His isolated power is not just good for his age, it's remarkably good. (It's much higher, for example, than that of Yorman Rodriguez, Billy Hamilton, Juan Duran, or any 17 or 18-year-old kid the Reds have trotted out in the past five years.)

I don't care what he is listed at.... last season, he wasn't that tall or that heavy. Juan Duran should never have his power compared to Ronald Torreyes. It isn't in the same conversation, story or trilogy.

Sure, you could point to a small sample size, but the kid also got it done in the Arizona League. (Both with power and BA.) His age 17 year is similar enough to the following guys from the five years before:

Mike Trout
Randal Grichuk
Jonathan Garcia
Engel Beltre
Alex Liddi

That's it. He's also the only 2B on that list.

And Elizardo Ramirez once obliterated rookie ball too with a 1.10 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP and 73 walks with 2 walks. Numbers in rookie ball can tell us a whole lot, or they can tell us absolutely nothing. For every Joey Votto and Hanley Ramirez who hit very well in rookie ball as a teenager and go on to stardom, there is a Garrett Guzman, Tony Blanco (former Red hit .384/.442/.662 as an 18 year old with 13 HR's that season) or Will Smith who go on to nothing (or in Blanco's case, obliterating the Japanese pro league 9 years later).

[Scrap Irony]

Those numbers mixed with positive scouting reports do mean something, though. And, of the scouts who've seen him, almost all come back pretty darn positive.

An example of this can be seen in BA's own report:

Generously listed at 5-foot-10, Torreyes isn't the toolsiest guy, but he runs well and has remarkable feel for hitting. Torreyes hit .390/.468/.606 in 284 plate appearances with 11 strikeouts (no, not a typo) in the Venezuelan Summer League before the Reds brought him to Arizona a couple of weeks ago. He hasn't slowed down, hitting .372/.426/.558 with three strikeouts in 47 PAs, leaving AZL observers with some puzzled looks on their faces after showing them surprising power for a player his size

BA praised his hitting tool, his speed, and his power. (This in itself should allay most doubter's concerns about pop, but I digress.) Other scouts, Red officials, and coaches have insisted his defense is outstanding. (Plus, I believe.) So, for those keeping score at home, that's four of the five tools that have been praised, yet he's not toolsy?

Why?

I think it's largely because of his stature. You don't think he's toolsy because he doesn't look toolsy. (doug's two pictures in this very thread seen to argue the same bias. In essence, he's too small to hit with the power he's already hitting with.)

In the end, it really doesn't matter what a bunch of amateur posters think of when discussing a prospect. I realize, after having argued with doug for five years on this site, his opinion is set in stone and won't change no matter how persuasively I argue. It's largely the same for me.

Shrug.

But it's the bias that's troubling. Both Torreyes and Hamilton have been downgraded as prospects because of their stature. Only because of stature, really, as the production, pedigree, and scouting reports all seem to agree that each player has some really solid tools. Now, maybe they will flame out-- most phenoms do-- but clinging to a blind obedience (i.e., physicality) would miss real talents like Pedroia (who was smaller than Torreyes at the same age), Furcal (also smaller), Roberts, and Tejada. And, like those guys (and 99% of all males across the world), both Hamilton and Torreyes are likely to get bigger than they are currently.

[Scrap Irony]

Torreyes had a .145 Isolated SLG this season in the US. Billy Hamilton's was .138. Why are Hamilton's lacking, but Torreyes isn't? They are basically interchangable.

You're right. The questions of Hamilton's power are poor ones as well. That .138 ISO would have ranked 9th among second basemen in all of mlb.

You have alleviated my concerns about Hamilton's power.

Thanks.

[lollipopcurve]

Put it this way -- it's possible Torreyes is a top-shelf 2B prospect. Last I heard, every team fields a second baseman. It's one of those middle of the diamond positions. Kinda important. You can OPS and ISO and break out the scales all you want, but we're talking about a middle infielder here, and we're talking about baseball, not fantasy baseball.