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Thread: Reds Win above Replacement stats

  1. #1
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    Reds Win above Replacement stats

    just searched it prior to tonights game for the team leader in the WAR stat. The first number is the WAR, the Second is how much that player would be paid if he was being paid compared to other players with similar value.

    Code:
    Name	WAR	Dollars
    Joey Votto	4.7	$18.70
    Brandon Phillips	3.3	$13.00
    Scott Rolen	3.1	$12.40
    Jay Bruce	1.6	$6.40
    Ramon Hernandez	1.5	$5.90
    Drew Stubbs	1.1	$4.50
    Ryan Hanigan	1.1	$4.40
    Orlando Cabrera	1	$3.90
    Miguel Cairo	0.5	$2.20
    Laynce Nix	0.5	$2.00
    Jonny Gomes	-0.1	-$0.40
    Funny how these stats come out to be pretty close to correct.

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    The dollar numbers are based on what FA players signed for based on their previous season's WAR, which was right around 4 million per 1 WAR this offseason. Basically, it's an estimated open market value.

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Rijo's Ghost View Post
    The dollar numbers are based on what FA players signed for based on their previous season's WAR, which was right around 4 million per 1 WAR this offseason. Basically, it's an estimated open market value.
    I think I said that but thanks for probably explaining it a little better than I did.

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    Seems odd that Gomes should be paying the Reds. I would say he's had a better season than most of the guys on the team. Perhaps I don't fully understand this statistic.

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    Quote Originally Posted by sivman17 View Post
    Seems odd that Gomes should be paying the Reds. I would say he's had a better season than most of the guys on the team. Perhaps I don't fully understand this statistic.
    It takes in defensive value.

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    It takes in defensive value.
    Even so... I'm still surprised. He's only had 1 error all season and has 3 assists. And he's got the 4th best ZR of NL LFs. Ah well

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    Quote Originally Posted by sivman17 View Post
    Even so... I'm still surprised. He's only had 1 error all season and has 3 assists. And he's got the 4th best ZR of NL LFs. Ah well
    Well his bat isnt great either.

    his UZR/150 is 3rd worst in the majors.

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    Random Thought: Is Jay Bruce on his way to becoming Paul O'Neill?

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    Random Thought: Is Jay Bruce on his way to becoming Paul O'Neill?
    Maybe, but Bruce has more power and Paul had better contact ability.

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    I think the O'Neill comparison is accurate. I actually see him more of an Austin Kearns. Their stats at the same age are very similar. Kearns had a much better OBP, but that's the only major difference. Kearns didn't quite pan out like we had all hoped.

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    The closer I look at the stats on Fangraphs (especially defensive) the more skeptical I become.

    I posted this on Saturday:

    Code:
    Name	Team	         Bat  Field  Replace	Pos.	RAR	WAR	Dollars
    Rafael Furcal	Dodgers	18.1	4.8	10.2	2.9	36.0	3.7	$14.80 
    Troy Tulowitzki	Rockies	10.6	3.2	8.8	2.8	25.4	2.6	$10.40 
    Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	13.3	-6.1	13.4	4.1	24.8	2.5	$10.20 
    Stephen Drew	Dbacks	-0.3	3.2	12.1	3.7	18.7	1.9	$7.70 
    Jose Reyes	Mets	1.5	-0.4	12.4	3.7	17.3	1.8	$7.10 
    Juan Uribe	Giants	0.5	1.1	11.7	2.7	16.0	1.6	$6.60 
    Starlin Castro	Cubs	0.4	2.6	8.5	3.0	14.6	1.5	$6.00 
    Jerry Hairston	Padres	-4.8	5.3	11.6	2.5	14.5	1.5	$5.90 
    Yunel Escobar	Braves	-7.7	4.4	10.0	3.3	10.0	1.0	$4.10 
    Felipe Lopez	Cards	1.8	-2.7	9.1	1.4	9.6	1.0	$3.90 
    Ronny Cedeno	Pirates	-9.3	3.5	9.7	3.4	7.3	0.7	$3.00 
    Clint Barmes	Rockies	-7.3	0.6	10.7	2.3	6.3	0.7	$2.60 
    Ian Desmond	Nats	-7.8	-0.5	10.6	3.5	5.9	0.6	$2.40 
    Orlando Cabrera	Reds	-13.8	1.8	13.7	4.1	5.9	0.6	$2.40 
    Alcides Escobar	Brewers	-10.9	0.1	11.5	3.7	4.3	0.4	$1.80 
    Ryan Theriot	Cubs	-14.3	-2.0	13.0	2.1	-1.2	-0.1	($0.50)
    Brendan Ryan	Cards	-16.9	3.0	8.9	3.2	-1.9	-0.2	($0.80)
    Just two days later:

    Code:
    Name	      Team	Bat	Field	Replace	Posit	RAR	WAR	Dollars
    Rafael Furcal	Dodgers	17.8	6.3	10.5	3	37.6	3.9	$15.50 
    Troy Tulowitzki	Rockies	10.6	2.8	8.8	2.8	25	2.6	$10.30 
    Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	13.5	-8.4	13.8	4.2	23.1	2.4	$9.50 
    Stephen Drew	DBacks	-0.8	4	12.4	3.8	19.4	2	$8.00 
    Starlin Castro	Cubs	2.8	2.7	8.8	3.1	17.4	1.8	$7.10 
    Jerry Hairston	Padres	-5.3	7.3	11.9	2.5	16.4	1.7	$6.70 
    Juan Uribe	Giants	0.1	1	12	2.7	15.9	1.6	$6.50 
    Jose Reyes	Mets	0.9	-2.7	12.8	3.8	14.8	1.5	$6.10 
    Ronny Cedeno	Pirates	-5.8	6.1	9.9	3.5	13.8	1.4	$5.70 
    Yunel Escobar	Braves	-7.7	5.1	10	3.3	10.7	1.1	$4.40 
    Orlando Cabrera	Reds	-14	5.3	14	4.2	9.5	1	$3.90 
    Felipe Lopez	Cards	2.8	-4.4	9.3	1.4	9.2	0.9	$3.80 
    Clint Barmes	Rockies	-8.7	3.1	11	2.4	7.8	0.8	$3.20 
    Alcides Escobar	Brewers	-11	0.2	11.7	3.8	4.7	0.5	$1.90 
    Ian Desmond	Nats	-9.4	-3.7	10.8	3.6	1.4	0.1	$0.60 
    Brendan Ryan	Cards	-16.2	5.1	9.2	3.3	1.3	0.1	$0.50 
    Ryan Theriot	Cubs	-13.8	-4.3	13.3	2.2	-2.7	-0.3	($1.10)
    Looking just at the Fielding Portion of the Value Equation gives you this:

    Code:
    NAME	     FLD 7/26 FLD 7/24  DIFF
    Rafael Furcal	6.3	4.8	1.5
    Troy Tulowitzki	2.8	3.2	-0.4
    Hanley Ramirez	-8.4	-6.1	-2.3
    Stephen Drew	4.0	3.2	0.8
    Starlin Castro	2.7	2.6	0.1
    Jerry Hairston	7.3	5.3	2.0
    Juan Uribe	1.0	1.1	-0.1
    Jose Reyes	-2.7	-0.4	-2.3
    Ronny Cedeno	6.1	3.5	2.6
    Yunel Escobar	5.1	4.4	0.7
    Orlando Cabrera	5.3	1.8	3.5
    Felipe Lopez	-4.4	-2.7	-1.7
    Clint Barmes	3.1	0.6	2.5
    Alcides Escobar	0.2	0.1	0.1
    Ian Desmond	-3.7	-0.5	-3.2
    Brendan Ryan	5.1	3.0	2.1
    Ryan Theriot	-4.3	-2.0	-2.3
    Are we to believe that just two games (I am assuming Monday's games aren't included) make that big a difference? Do fielding stats fluctuate that wildly? Just on fielding alone OCab picked up 1.4 million in value in two games. Does that seem right to anyone?

    There might be a logical explanation, but I certainly am not aware of it.

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    The closer I look at the stats on Fangraphs (especially defensive) the more skeptical I become.

    I posted this on Saturday:



    Just two days later:



    Looking just at the Fielding Portion of the Value Equation gives you this:



    Are we to believe that just two games (I am assuming Monday's games aren't included) make that big a difference? Do fielding stats fluctuate that wildly? Just on fielding alone OCab picked up 1.4 million in value in two games. Does that seem right to anyone?

    There might be a logical explanation, but I certainly am not aware of it.
    The numbers dont have to stay the same. Its a fluid stat just like OPS. Cabrera did make a few pretty good plays recently so that could easily explain the bump. His bat has also been hot. WAR is cumulative its not a rating.

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    The numbers dont have to stay the same. Its a fluid stat just like OPS. Cabrera did make a few pretty good plays recently so that could easily explain the bump. His bat has also been hot. WAR is cumulative its not a rating.
    I under it is fluid but it would seem like the further into the season the less likely you are going to have a big jump like that. Two games out of one hundred is 2%. I don't care how many plays he made it should not affect his fielding value that much, in effect tripling it. Could a player boost his OPS from .600 to 1.800 in two games this time of year?

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    I under it is fluid but it would seem like the further into the season the less likely you are going to have a big jump like that. Two games out of one hundred is 2%. I don't care how many plays he made it should not affect his fielding value that much, in effect tripling it. Could a player boost his OPS from .600 to 1.800 in two games this time of year?
    Fielding Sabermetric values are still very suspect. Even Sapermatricians agree they need a lot of work. Defense is very tough to get statistics on.

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    Re: Reds Win above Replacement stats

    Comparing it to OPS like that is wrong. I was simply saying it can go up and down depending on how the guy plays.

    Its being compared to replacement level. He went from half a win better to 1 win better than a replacement level player. I wish I could explain it better but I'm not great at it. Maybe someone will PM you with a better explanation than I can give.


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