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Thread: Why trades of prospects must happen

  1. #31
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Why trades of prospects must happen

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Yes. The team will be better next year than this year. The team will be better the two or three years after that, too, than this year. Our pitching will improve every year for the next 5 years. Our Offense will be just as good as it will be more balanced. Instead of all of the Offense going through two guys in Votto and Rolen, it will be going through 8, 9, and 10 guys. We won't have guys OPS-ing under .700. It will be a much more balanced team that won't get shut out 8 times in a season, yet alone 16 times in a season like they will be this year. The Offense will be better built for the playoffs as will the pitching be better built for the playoffs. They'll have a shot at 96 wins every season.
    I think that is a rosy picture that counts on everything going perfectly. IMO, offense is only as good as the 3, 4 and 5 hitters. The Reds are getting MVP performance from two of those spots and the third had an unconscious month, is pretty good with RISP and is among the leaders in RBI. Voila! The team is leading the league in offense. As those guys fall off, you can count on leading the league again. I think expecting it is foolish. You won't make that up by improving the 7 and 8 holes in the order.

    On the pitching side, I do think some individual pitchers will improve, but this team is getting 300 competitive to dominant IP from Arroyo and Rhodes that will need to be made-up and kids like Leake and Wood repeating is no sure thing. Volquez, Bailey and Chapman are all boom or bust types and counting on all three to boom is pie in the sky optimism.

    2010 is the first year of this team's window. It may not get any better and letting this opportunity go by because we expect everything to go right and the window to stay open is wasteful. We haven't even mentioned finances and how hard it may be to keep this group intact beyond 2012. Rhodes is probaby gone after 2010. Arroyo after 2011 at best. Phillips probably after 2011 or 2012. If Votto keeps it up, he'll be a $15 Million man by 2012. Rolen could be done in an instant, but probably is gone after 2012. I can go on and on.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #32
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Why trades of prospects must happen

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think that is a rosy picture that counts on everything going perfectly. IMO, offense is only as good as the 3, 4 and 5 hitters. The Reds are getting MVP performance from two of those spots and the third had an unconscious month, is pretty good with RISP and is among the leaders in RBI. Voila! The team is leading the league in offense. As those guys fall off, you can count on leading the league again. I think expecting it is foolish. You won't make that up by improving the 7 and 8 holes in the order.

    On the pitching side, I do think some individual pitchers will improve, but this team is getting 300 competitive to dominant IP from Arroyo and Rhodes that will need to be made-up and kids like Leake and Wood repeating is no sure thing. Volquez, Bailey and Chapman are all boom or bust types and counting on all three to boom is pie in the sky optimism.

    2010 is the first year of this team's window. It may not get any better and letting this opportunity go by because we expect everything to go right and the window to stay open is wasteful. We haven't even mentioned finances and how hard it may be to keep this group intact beyond 2012. Rhodes is probaby gone after 2010. Arroyo after 2011 at best. Phillips probably after 2011 or 2012. If Votto keeps it up, he'll be a $15 Million man by 2012. Rolen could be done in an instant, but probably is gone after 2012. I can go on and on.
    I think Walt would say, "these things have a way of working themselves out".

    I appreciate your observation that this may be lightening in a bottle, just look at Seattle.

    However, most of your scenario will not take effect until 2012. Still, even then Rolen, Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Volky, Cueto, Wood and on and on will possibly still be there. Only Rolen figures to drop off far by then.

    One problem I have with your argument is that players you'd like to trade for big chips now (really, which ones will make a huge difference?) will be cheap solutions later, so the all in approach will not be sustainable.
    2015 Rotation: Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani

  4. #33
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Why trades of prospects must happen

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I think Walt would say, "these things have a way of working themselves out".

    I appreciate your observation that this may be lightening in a bottle, just look at Seattle.

    However, most of your scenario will not take effect until 2012. Still, even then Rolen, Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Volky, Cueto, Wood and on and on will possibly still be there. Only Rolen figures to drop off far by then.

    One problem I have with your argument is that players you'd like to trade for big chips now (really, which ones will make a huge difference?) will be cheap solutions later, so the all in approach will not be sustainable.
    Don't know about 2012, The double MVP seasons aren't likely repeated. Those 300 IP (more than 20% of a team's season total) could be gone after this year. Rolen will be another year older next year. Who knows if he stays healthy, requires even more rest or just reverts to the 2008 guy. Phillips could revert as well. The production from the catching spot probably won't be repeated and even Votto may be having a career year that sees a drop-off in 2011. The only thing we know for sure is that they have a real opportunity in 2010.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #34
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Why trades of prospects must happen

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Don't know about 2012, The double MVP seasons aren't likely repeated. Those 300 IP (more than 20% of a team's season total) could be gone after this year. Rolen will be another year older next year. Who knows if he stays healthy, requires even more rest or just reverts to the 2008 guy. Phillips could revert as well. The production from the catching spot probably won't be repeated and even Votto may be having a career year that sees a drop-off in 2011. The only thing we know for sure is that they have a real opportunity in 2010.
    I disagree, we know we have a real opportunity in 2011 and 2012 to compete. Whether any of those things you say come true is as unclear as whether someone gets injured soon or St. Louis reels off 15 in a row while the Reds bomb the west coast trip. Nothing's for sure, so why mortgage the future for spare parts? Many teams were asking high prices for their difference makers this year. See Washington and Toronto.
    2015 Rotation: Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani


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