It's just my opinion, but the Reds will never be in the running for elite FAs..
Occasionally they might be in the running for a player of Bronson's calibar (who I think is at least above average at this level of performance, I think most agree on that).
I don't think Bronson would redo his 2011 year to take less money, but I think he'd be open to a reasonable offer for an extension.. In other words, he's not going to ask for CC Sabathia money.
I have no problem letting Harang walk after this year. I expect that. But if Bronson is cut loose after this year, I doubt the team ever becomes competitive. At some point you have to keep your good players and get out of the John Allen mindset..
Also, I think bringing Arroyo back would help us recruit more FAs.. Sure, money might be tight, but most FAs want to play on a team with at least a chance of winning.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
If you mean the top 2-3 FA on the market then I agree with you. I also agree that those are the players more than likely a team like the Reds want to stay away from. A top tier FA would take up too much of the payroll and are also would be locked up into their twilight years.
Not so sure how it is still the John Allen mindset questioning whether or not a 34 year old Bronson Arroyo is worth his contract, especially when the Reds look to be deep and loaded in the SP department. The question that I am asking is can Walt Jocketty (not John Allen) improve the Reds more with $9M in the FA market than what Bronson adds to the team?
To tell you the truth, I don't know. My first reaction is to take the club option and then wait and see. Bronson is smoke a mirrors. Always has been and always will be. When he's good, he's good and when he's bad, he's bad. He's not a $10 million pitcher, but he gets the job done. With the arms we have coming up, is it worth keeping him around? I don't know. I do know that giving big money to guys like Arroyo is insane.
I think he is. If you took his stat lines over the past 4 years, and said to all MLB teams, would you pay 40 million for 4 years if you knew you were certain to get those numbers...I think teams would be running over each other to get him.
Just my opinion, but in that sense, yes he is a 10 million/yr pitcher.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Bronson Arroyo on a one-year, $9mm contract sounds good to me. Bronson Arroyo on a five-year, $55mm contract with a no-trade clause scares me, though. Just look at the kinds of deals Gil Meche and Kyle Lohse signed. It might be good for a while, but it's probably not worth the risk.
Picking up his option for next year is a no brainer. Take one more year to evaluate the staff you have on hand, and if you determine you have enough guys to replace his innings, let him walk after 2011. If you are still uncertain that Cueto, Volquez, Wood, Leake, and Bailey can handle the innings they'll need to handle as full time starters, then work out some sort of long term deal with BA. He's not much of a risk at all, as he has zero injury history, and doesn't rely on a overpowering fastball (which is something that may decline with age).
That option escalates to $13 Million based on IP. Considering that he goes deep in games and never misses a start, he'll be a $13 Million guy next year.
Bringing Arroyo back should be the minimum that they do for 2011. I'd rather they pass and use the money for the TOR.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I could be way off on this one, but I see Arroyo as a top-five starting pitcher on the free agent market, and there's a good chance he'll climb up that ranking as extensions happen late in the season. Couple that with the fact that Arroyo has been pitching well, things are looking pretty good for him. Oh, and he has zero injury history. You can't put a price on that because every starting pitcher that hits the market, short of Jon Garlad, has a history of injuries.
Randy Wolf had an ERA+ of 103 for his career at the age of 33 (about Arroyo's age), and he got a three-year deal with almost $10M per year despite having had arm surgery. Arroyo has an ERA+ of 107 despite pitching half his games in GABP (not to mention his time in the AL East)
Five years/$55M? Okay, maybe not. Four years/$40M? No problem imo.
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