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Thread: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Sorry, didn't mean to offend you or Carroll. And yes, I'm guilty of listing several young guys about whom I know next to nothing but the numbers. I have seen Carroll pitch, however. And I'm aware of his virtues. I hope he makes it.
    I don't take offense, just very confused that you named multiple guys who I literally had to look up over a more than a few guys pitching in the US with at least one above average pitch that we know about.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    Well, like I said originally, I might have slighted Carroll. But my reasoning is this: When I see a 25-year-old in AA, and he strikes out roughly one batter every two innings, and, while pitching pretty well, he has never had a dominant kind of season, it just doesn't seem to me that the big leagues are in his future. There are exceptions, of course. Carroll is a good athlete, and he keeps the ball down, for the most part. He could become a serviceable journeyman. But I haven't seen enough upside there to place him high on a prospect list. That said, I hope that steady wins the race and he proves me wrong.

    Now, as for the teenagers . . . Naturally, they're a very long way away from the big leagues. And in fact, many of them will do well to attain what a guy like Carroll already has. They're shots in the dark. But all the guys I listed have had impressive seasons, and the DSL guys, in particular, have competed well enough to have their team in the second round of the playoffs of a 34-team league. At this stage, while putting up imposing numbers, they haven't done anything to disqualify themselves as prospects. To me, that's their advantage. It may be a fleeting one, but these types of evaluations are inevitably snapshots.

    At any rate, I don't purport that my rankings are any more than a remote, hastily presented, amateur opinion.

  4. #18
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    From Kevin Goldstein today:

    Ismael Guillon, LHP, Reds (Rookie-level AZL Reds): 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 K. Big bonus 18-year-old Venezuelan has impressed scouts with plus velocity; 73 strikeouts in 57 innings.

  5. #19
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    1. Chapman
    2. Boxberger ( he's not even in the top 20 - huh?)
    3. Guilon
    4. Joseph
    5. Tuttle or Ravin (they have the two best arms after Chapman)

  6. #20
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread View Post
    1. Chapman
    2. Boxberger ( he's not even in the top 20 - huh?)
    3. Guilon
    4. Joseph
    5. Tuttle or Ravin (they have the two best arms after Chapman)
    To tell you the truth, I overlooked Boxberger. But I wouldn't have him nearly as high as most people.

  7. #21
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    But I wouldn't have him nearly as high as most people.
    Neither would I -- never really got the Boxberger fever.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  8. #22
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    Has anyone seen Muhammad pitch? As a 49th round pick I did not pay much attention to him, but he has put up good numbers.

  9. #23
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    lol...wrong thread.

  10. #24
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    Box was good when he was starting.

  11. #25
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    Box was good when he was starting.
    That was also when he was in Lynchburg. People keep blaming the transition to reliever, but I think it's more a matter of facing better hitters.

  12. #26
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    That was also when he was in Lynchburg. People keep blaming the transition to reliever, but I think it's more a matter of facing better hitters.
    It has to be more than just facing better hitters. He went from very good to the worst pitcher in the league. His ERA tripled upon going to AA/transitioning to the bullpen.

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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    That was also when he was in Lynchburg. People keep blaming the transition to reliever, but I think it's more a matter of facing better hitters.
    Facing improved hitters might be a part of the reason, but no way I believe that improved hitters is the main reason he went from

    3.19 ERA
    2.9 BB/9
    0.4 HR/9
    8.3 H/9
    1.242 WHIP

    to
    10.65 ERA
    8.4 BB/9
    1.5 HR/9
    11.8 H/9
    2.239 WHIP

    Makes me think the dude isnt warm coming out of the pen.

  14. #28
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    Just like Sean Watson, Boxberger throws a breaking ball that dives out of the zone. The difference between AA hitters and A+ hitters is that AA hitters know to lay off of it. Boxberger will need to learn to throw it for strikes if he's going to have success. Otherwise, he's going to have to hope his changeup develops into a better pitch.

  15. #29
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Just like Sean Watson, Boxberger throws a breaking ball that dives out of the zone. The difference between AA hitters and A+ hitters is that AA hitters know to lay off of it. Boxberger will need to learn to throw it for strikes if he's going to have success. Otherwise, he's going to have to hope his changeup develops into a better pitch.
    Almost everyone throws a breaking ball that dives out of the zone. Sliders and curves both break downward. I don't really think that is his issue. Sure, guys are going to chase less in AA, but we aren't talking about going from 3 to 5 walks per 9. We are seeing a rate nearly tripled. This isn't a guy who can't throw a fastball anywhere near the plate and has no clue where its going. He is striking out over 12 hitters per 9 innings in AA.

  16. #30
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    Re: Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Almost everyone throws a breaking ball that dives out of the zone. Sliders and curves both break downward. I don't really think that is his issue. Sure, guys are going to chase less in AA, but we aren't talking about going from 3 to 5 walks per 9. We are seeing a rate nearly tripled. This isn't a guy who can't throw a fastball anywhere near the plate and has no clue where its going. He is striking out over 12 hitters per 9 innings in AA.
    I wasn't very clear, so I'll rephrase. I'm not saying that the level difference is the sole reason for his struggles. I was merely acknowledging that it hasn't been mentioned as a factor. But how do you explain such a drastic change in his numbers? Granted, he has always had a reputation for taking a long time to warm up, but I'm just saying that you need to combine that with the change in level, too. Boxberger's wind up kind of reminds me of the Tasmanian Devil, so it shouldn't be a surprise that he struggles with control.


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