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Thread: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

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    Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    There is a reason Gomes has 65 RBI so far. He is batting .376 RISP and .308 with runners on. I know all the sabermetrics people will say that has no value since it is "random." But it any other sport like basketball, soccer, football they measure players by the runs/points they actually create, not the "imaginary" runs they would create in a perfect world.
    I'm just saying we should recognize he's been pretty clutch so far this year.

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    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    Agreed. All he does is knock people in. If he came up to bat with no one on 4 times in a game, he might go 0-4, but if the 5th time he came with a RISP, he seems to knock them in. That's really what matters.

    Difficult to take a guy like him out of the lineup when he produces. Something that Jay Bruce fails to do time and time again.
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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    then you figure in his D and realize how unproductive he even if you want to quote a sample size that has dropped .300 points in the last week.

    Seriously 100 PA is what makes a player productive? His .700 OPS in his 181 PA with no one on doesnt really matter? Does it matter that when he has came up with no outs in an innings hes made an out 70% of the time?

    I dont understand why people think RISP is all that matters. If every one was only good with RISP then dont you think a team would be awful? Fact is its a pretty small sample size and honestly it doesnt matter that much.
    Last edited by GIDP; 07-30-2010 at 07:26 AM.

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    Does it matter that when he has came up with no outs in an innings hes made an out 70% of the time?
    Don't most hitters make outs at least 70% of their at-bats? Unless we are talking about just getting on base, in which case, 3/10 times up to the plate isn't preferred
    Hey Homer! If you can put it together, you'll put the Reds over the top....think about it.

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by jfleur87 View Post
    Don't most hitters make outs at least 70% of their at-bats? Unless we are talking about just getting on base, in which case, 3/10 times up to the plate isn't preferred
    What else do you think "make outs" mean. Getting on base isnt making an out. Im confused on what you mean by "unless we are talking about just getting on base".

    Anyways I think the sample size is the issue more than anything.

    League hits .257/.326/.402 total
    League hits .251/.313/.395 with no one on base
    League hits .265/.343/.413 with runners on base
    League hits .261/.352/.411 with RISP
    League hits .281/.313/.432 with bases loaded
    League hits .259/.326/.406 in night games
    League hits .254/.326/.397 in day games

    Basically what im trying to point out that over the course of a season and a ton of PA these stats tend to be almost exactly the same. Its just magnified on players because of how limited the amount of PA the player gets in those situations. Is it good to hit well with RISP? Yes, is it good to hit well with RISP and poorly with no one on? No. The seasonal production matters much more.

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    I suppose what I was going for is that I would take someone getting a hit 30% of the time, but I wouldn't be thrilled with someone only getting on base 30% of the time. But its early, and I tend to take awhile before I can make a coherent thought. That being said, if Gomes ends up with around 20 hrs and around 90-100 rbi's, I guess I don't really care that he isn't that great with the bases empty
    Hey Homer! If you can put it together, you'll put the Reds over the top....think about it.

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by jfleur87 View Post
    I suppose what I was going for is that I would take someone getting a hit 30% of the time, but I wouldn't be thrilled with someone only getting on base 30% of the time. But its early, and I tend to take awhile before I can make a coherent thought. That being said, if Gomes ends up with around 20 hrs and around 90-100 rbi's, I guess I don't really care that he isn't that great with the bases empty
    Even if its at the cost of everyone else driving in runs? If guys arent on base you cant drive him in. If someone drives someone in 40% of the time and only has someone on base in front of them 30% of the time how many RBI is that guy going to get? If Gomes hit in front of himself he wouldnt have those RBIs. He gets a lot of chances, has done well in those spots, but hes also done poorly in the other spots making others guys production drop. Plus hitting with RISP isnt a repeatable skill it fluctuates year to year. Good players will hit better with RISP because they are better hitters already. Bad players will hit bad with RISP because they are worse hitters. The same is true for bases empty.

    Jonny Gomes for his career is a .855 OPS bat with RISP
    Gomes with bases empty is a .805 OPS hitter.

    The differnce in the stat is basically that hes been IBB 9 times with RISP.

    With men on hes a .789 OPS
    Day Games: .782
    Night games: .805

    Guys just dont tend to have vastly huge splits for their whole career. When they rack up more PA the numbers get closer and closer to the career line.

    Which for Gomes is .798 OPS.
    Last edited by GIDP; 07-30-2010 at 09:29 AM.

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by Roush's socks View Post
    There is a reason Gomes has 65 RBI so far. He is batting .376 RISP and .308 with runners on. I know all the sabermetrics people will say that has no value since it is "random." But it any other sport like basketball, soccer, football they measure players by the runs/points they actually create, not the "imaginary" runs they would create in a perfect world.
    I'm just saying we should recognize he's been pretty clutch so far this year.
    He has been regressing to the mean a bit of late...he had a ridiculous .450 avg with RISP early on in the season. But yea, he has been huge for our offense thus far in getting those guys in. Hopefully he continues at a pretty amazing pace.

    On a similar note, Ramon deserves some props also as he has been a guy who has been coming up with a lot of big hits with runners on base. He is hitting .309 with RISP compared to his .257 with them empty.

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    then you figure in his D and realize how unproductive he even if you want to quote a sample size that has dropped .300 points in the last week.

    Seriously 100 PA is what makes a player productive? His .700 OPS in his 181 PA with no one on doesnt really matter? Does it matter that when he has came up with no outs in an innings hes made an out 70% of the time?

    I dont understand why people think RISP is all that matters. If every one was only good with RISP then dont you think a team would be awful? Fact is its a pretty small sample size and honestly it doesnt matter that much.
    But we are talking about 1 guy and not the whole team. And it's a guy who has been batting 5th for most all the season. That is a spot in the lineup, especially our lineup, where you should put a high value into RISP productivity. Since we have rough OBP's at the top and Votto and Rolen have good OBP's...the 5th spot is going to be up a lot with RISP and needs to produce.

    That being said, I don't know all of the saber stats out there. What stats are their that pertain to knocking in runs? Or are there any? The thing I dislike about looking at a RISP slash line is that it is not indicative of a player's ability to drive in runs. If someone hits .400 with all singles, gets the runner in from 3rd with 1 out, and has a lot of sac flys, he is going to get a ton of RBI's, however his OPS may only be .880. Then you may have a guy hit .250 with a few HR's and 2b's get walked at a higher clip and post a similar OPS, but he is going to get way fewer RBI's.

    In any case a walk shouldn't be looked at as a negative, so I typically like to look at the ratio of AB's/RBI. Which tells me how often a guy gets the run in compared to how many opportunities he had in which he didn't get a BB,HBP. Still not a perfect or in-depth measure, but I feel like it does more justice than just rbi's or just RISP slash line.

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    I give Gomes his due. Hes hit well in that situation, probably with a good chunk of luck, but still you cant take what has happened back. I just ask why is that stat so much more important to people than the whole package. Splits like OPS with RISP tend to even out. Guys can have better years one year and be bad the next. Its all basically when you happened to get your allotment of hits that year.

    The only split that is really worth putting stock into is LH/RH splits, and thats only after a good chunk of PA.

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    No fancy math to back me up here, but I think a guy like Gomes wants to be up in a big situation. Can't say that about every player here. Cough bruce cough.

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    It's shocking to me that his WAR is 0.0 this year. Is WAR just a misleading stat or is his defense really that bad?

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by DocRed View Post
    It's shocking to me that his WAR is 0.0 this year. Is WAR just a misleading stat or is his defense really that bad?
    Well he has been a slightly above average hitter and hes below average in the field so is it that surprising that his WAR is 0.0 or 0.1?

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    Well he has been a slightly above average hitter and hes below average in the field so is it that surprising that his WAR is 0.0 or 0.1?
    Hmm...dunno. I'm a big Gomes fan so I would like to believe he has been a big asset to the team. I don't understand how his batting value was 10.2 last year but only 1.6 this year.

    It's a tuff pill to swallow that he is supposedly based on WAR only as good as a triple A outfielder.

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    Re: Gomes 1.162 OPS with RISP

    Quote Originally Posted by DocRed View Post
    Hmm...dunno. I'm a big Gomes fan so I would like to believe he has been a big asset to the team. I don't understand how his batting value was 10.2 last year but only 1.6 this year.

    It's a tuff pill to swallow that he is supposedly based on WAR only as good as a triple A outfielder.
    His OPS last year was almost .100 points higher.


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