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Thread: Where do we go from here?

  1. #1
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Where do we go from here?

    The trade deadline has passed, the roster is overflowing with major league caliber role players while lacking a bit in top end guys needed to seal the deal for post-season play and short series competitiveness. So what now?

    There is a serious numbers game going on in places that are in need of an upgrade. The Reds seem to be going with quantity over quality in the Pen, the Rotation and the OF, but w/o packaging several for one or two top end upgrades, the numbers problem has become fairly significant.

    The Rotation:

    Currently Cueto, Arroyo, Leake, Wood and Volquez are holding the rotation spots. Homer Bailey is rehabbing in AAA and is due back in 10 days or so. Aaron Harang is sidelined with back issues and there is no timetable for his return. Matt Maloney, Sam Lecure and Micah Owings are in AAA and probably won't be back until September if at all.

    So how does it stack-up. I'm guessing that Cueto, Arroyo and Wood are in the rotation for the balance of the season. Mike Leake has a clear expiration date for 2010 and probably has about 8 starts left before hitting his innings limit (probably in early September). Volquez may be the one to go when Bailey returns.

    The Pen

    Cordero, Masset and Rhodes are locks. Ondrusek and Smith have pitched well and Carlos Fisher hasn't really done anything to deserve a demotion at this point. Bill Bray has been shakey. In AAA Chapman is getting ready and is the clear replacement for Bray. Jared Burton, Jason Isringhausen and Russ Springer are all possible additions. Volquez or Bailey may take one spot. Not sure how to fit them all.

    The Outfield

    All players are flawed. Gomes, Stubbs and Bruce are the shakey starters, Heisey and Nix have both been good off the bench. Chris Dickerson is lighting it up at AAA. None of these guys can play the IF so creating a spot by reducing an IF isn't an option (though I still wouldn't be shocked if Janish is optioned and Dickerson added). There is already a numbers game in the bullpen so dropping to 11 pitchers probably won't happen.

    This was a team that not only had the chips to deal several role players for an upgrade but almost had to do it to manage its own roster. It will be interesting to see what happens but the only obvious moves may be subbing Chapman for Bray and swapping Bailey for Volquez if Volquez doesn't get it together. In September, the roster crunch will ease, but in October we'll probably regret not exchanging some quantity for quality.
    Last edited by mth123; 08-01-2010 at 07:57 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #2
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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    The overwhelming consensus that the Reds HAD to do SOMETHING/ANYTHING/OMGWHATRUDOING?!?!?! is laughable...

    Again. Somebody show me how me how they took a step back. You can't... As far as the division is concerned, they're right in the thick of contention... If there weren't any realistic deals to be made that would improve the current club, while factoring in future payroll, then the best move was to not make a move...

    It's not like Walt didn't make an attempt... The one player that he thought could really improve the squad went to another team based on the Mariners liking the Rangers package more than the Reds... How that's Walt's fault is beyond me...

    This team could very soon have two potential T.O.R. arms coming up to bolster the pen (Bailey and Chapman)... The pitching staff is solid... The two major needs we had in SS and LF were blocked by the fact that there were no real viable options available in the trade market at those positions...

    I'm pleased by the fact that Walt didn't weaken the future of the team by forcing the issue at the deadline.
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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    It may not make much of a difference to us--we may still see the future as bright and we might be right--but if this team tanks, then the narrative is going to be: "same old Reds--why should anyone buy season tickets for that, especially when [insert sports media person] said they didn't try to get anyone at the deadline?"

    Sure, winning the division could make all the above moot, but stories like this die hard. Especially given the last ten years. Saying that doing nothing has NO risk is an ill-funded proposition. It does carry risk.

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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    What is the latest word on Harang? I would replace Volquez with him, not with Bailey. If Harang is still not well enough, I'd replace V with Maloney.

    This team has more than enough defense to keep pitch to contact guys like Harang and Maloney in games. They can't do anything for guys who don't throw strikes however.

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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    What is the latest word on Harang? I would replace Volquez with him, not with Bailey. If Harang is still not well enough, I'd replace V with Maloney.

    This team has more than enough defense to keep pitch to contact guys like Harang and Maloney in games. They can't do anything for guys who don't throw strikes however.
    I think Harang threw a bullpen session yesterday as well as took batting practice with no pain.

    Mark Sheldon:

    *Aaron Harang (back) threw in another bullpen session today and said he felt OK. Harang also took batting practice and didn't seem to be favoring anything.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Somebody show me how me how they took a step back.
    Where in my post or in this thread was that stated?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    What is the latest word on Harang? I would replace Volquez with him, not with Bailey. If Harang is still not well enough, I'd replace V with Maloney.

    This team has more than enough defense to keep pitch to contact guys like Harang and Maloney in games. They can't do anything for guys who don't throw strikes however.
    Its already August and Harang hasn't even started a rehab. He'll likely be rehabbing until rosters expand and then step in for Leake when Leake hits his inning limit.

    Bailey has one more rehab start and then will probably need to be activated. From a timing standpoint, Bailey for Volquez and Harang for Leake makes sense. If Volquez gets it together, Bailey may end-up in the pen for Fisher. Bailey and Volquez are cut from the same cloth. Its possible Bailey has the same control issues that EV has and if so, at that point I'd fall back to Maloney, but I'd give both Bailey and EV a chance to get it together first. If either can get everything working, they could put togther a run of dominance that could help the team in the post-season. Maloney is a nice serviceable back-end guy, but he offers no hope for post season match-ups like the others do.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    What is the latest word on Harang? I would replace Volquez with him, not with Bailey. If Harang is still not well enough, I'd replace V with Maloney.

    This team has more than enough defense to keep pitch to contact guys like Harang and Maloney in games. They can't do anything for guys who don't throw strikes however.
    Defense prevents runs you are correct.. but if Gomes, Stubbs, and Bruce struggles continue and this team depends on Votto and Rolen to carry the team then this team is going to lose more then it wins regardless of the steller defense.

    Russ Springer has looked really good in his 7 games so far. Dickerson is looking like he is ready to come back. But how do you bring them in? Does Stubbs go down? Bray might be the only arm I could see worth replacing but he is a lefty and he hasn't been awful.
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    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    The overwhelming consensus that the Reds HAD to do SOMETHING/ANYTHING/OMGWHATRUDOING?!?!?! is laughable...

    Again. Somebody show me how me how they took a step back. You can't... As far as the division is concerned, they're right in the thick of contention... If there weren't any realistic deals to be made that would improve the current club, while factoring in future payroll, then the best move was to not make a move...

    It's not like Walt didn't make an attempt... The one player that he thought could really improve the squad went to another team based on the Mariners liking the Rangers package more than the Reds... How that's Walt's fault is beyond me...

    This team could very soon have two potential T.O.R. arms coming up to bolster the pen (Bailey and Chapman)... The pitching staff is solid... The two major needs we had in SS and LF were blocked by the fact that there were no real viable options available in the trade market at those positions...

    I'm pleased by the fact that Walt didn't weaken the future of the team by forcing the issue at the deadline.
    Finally, another voice of reason. Thank you sir.
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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Where in my post or in this thread was that stated?
    Where in my post did I directly aim that statement at you? It's a generalization... Seems to be the overall feel of discussion here since the deadline passed... That by not making a move, the Reds all but sealed their fate in that they won't be playing in the playoffs...
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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    In September, the roster crunch will ease, but in October we'll probably regret not exchanging some quantity for quality.
    Should our decisions be based on more long term thinking, or short-term? And lets be honest here.... there wasn't a great flurry of trading going on to begin with around MLB. And especially when it came to not only quality, but more importantly - filling the Reds needs.

    Jocketty was trying to work deals for bullpen help. But what relievers did he miss out on, or could have possibly had? And more importantly - at what asking price? None of us know.

    I agree with him when he basically says that the potential returns were not worth the prices......http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...=.jsp&c_id=cin

    The Reds were seeking bullpen help the past few weeks but were largely unimpressed with the market and the high asking price. As a possible workaround, they recently signed veteran free-agent relievers Jason Isringhausen and Russ Springer to Minor League deals.

    Jocketty also indicated that the club would take a closer look at some of its Triple-A pitchers, which presumably means Isringhausen, Springer, Jared Burton and Cuban lefty prospect Aroldis Chapman.

    A few relievers changed teams on Saturday, including Kerry Wood going from the Indians to the Yankees, Octavio Dotel from the Pirates to Dodgers, Kyle Farnsworth from the Royals to the Braves and Chad Qualls from Arizona to Tampa Bay.
    Farnsworth was the only one out of that lot I'd have been interested in. Dotel is an extreme flyball pitcher, not the flamethrower he once was, and is prone to give up the HR. He's a good fit possibly for Dodger Stadium, but not GABP IMO. And Wood and Qualls certainly aren't improvements over what we currently have.

    Some lament our starting pitching, or that it won't hold out. That's possible, but based on a lot of pure speculation (and worry) IMO.

    In July, this entire staff led the NL in ERA (3.10) and WHIP (1.14). As well as OB%, OPS, and BAA. They were 2nd in SLG% and in ERs (81). The opposition hit a paltry .216 against us. So I'm not overly concerned about this staff. At least not to the point of giving up valuable prospects for rentals that may/may not have helped us... AND ... when it comes to guys like Lee or Oswalt, we had very remote and/or slim chances of landing anyway. And when it comes to Oswalt, I don't think he's the same Oswalt, and the price tag was pretty hefty.

    And according to Jocketty, the Reds did make a pretty substantial offer to the Ms for Lee. The Ms just liked the Texas offer better....http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...tantial-offer/

    As far as any OF upgrades, or even SS for that matter? Where did we miss out?
    Last edited by GAC; 08-01-2010 at 10:29 AM.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Where in my post did I directly aim that statement at you? It's a generalization... Seems to be the overall feel of discussion here since the deadline passed... That by not making a move, the Reds all but sealed their fate in that they won't be playing in the playoffs...
    Well since it was post number two in a thread that I started about the Reds numbers crunch, it was a reasonable conclusion. Can't really see another post you could be responding to and if you were responding to posts in another thread, you should have made that post in that thread.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Should our decisions be based on more long term thinking, or short-term? And lets be honest here.... there wasn't a great flurry of trading going on to begin with around MLB. And especially when it came to not only quality, but more importantly - filling the Reds needs.

    Jocketty was trying to work deals for bullpen help. But what relievers did he miss out on, or could have possibly had? And more importantly - at what asking price? None of us know.

    I agree with him when he basically says that the potential returns were not worth the prices......http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...=.jsp&c_id=cin

    Farnsworth was the only one out of that lot I'd have been interested in. Dotel is an extreme flyball pitcher, not the flamethrower he once was, and is prone to give up the HR. He's a good fit possibly for Dodger Stadium, but not GABP IMO. And Wood and Qualls certainly aren't improvements over what we currently have.

    Some lament our starting pitching, or that it won't hold out. That's possible, but based on a lot of pure speculation (and worry) IMO.

    In July, this entire staff led the NL in ERA (3.10) and WHIP (1.14). As well as OB%, OPS, and BAA. They were 2nd in SLG% and in ERs (81). The opposition hit a paltry .216 against us. So I'm not overly concerned about this staff.

    As far as any OF upgrades, or even SS for that matter? Where did we miss out?
    I think the Reds were looking at Aardsma and Downs.. just couldn't get deals done. Walt was on the record as to saying the players they were after were not dealt.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Should our decisions be based on more long term thinking, or short-term? And lets be honest here.... there wasn't a great flurry of trading going on to begin with around MLB. And especially when it came to not only quality, but more importantly - filling the Reds needs.

    Jocketty was trying to work deals for bullpen help. But what relievers did he miss out on, or could have possibly had? And more importantly - at what asking price? None of us know.

    I agree with him when he basically says that the potential returns were not worth the prices......http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...=.jsp&c_id=cin



    Farnsworth was the only one out of that lot I'd have been interested in. Dotel is an extreme flyball pitcher, not the flamethrower he once was, and is prone to give up the HR. He's a good fit possibly for Dodger Stadium, but not GABP IMO. And Wood and Qualls certainly aren't improvements over what we currently have.

    Some lament our starting pitching, or that it won't hold out. That's possible, but based on a lot of pure speculation (and worry) IMO.

    In July, this entire staff led the NL in ERA (3.10) and WHIP (1.14). As well as OB%, OPS, and BAA. They were 2nd in SLG% and in ERs (81). The opposition hit a paltry .216 against us. So I'm not overly concerned about this staff.

    As far as any OF upgrades, or even SS for that matter? Where did we miss out?
    Maybe there wasn't anything, or maybe players weren't dealt because the team would not pull the trigger. I'm guessing its more for monetary reasons than anything. This team has a ton of interchangeale parts and dealing a few and backfilling with others wouldn't have had that big an impact on the future. I'm guessing many won't make the roster and will be lost in the numbers crunch as 6 year free agents, guys who run out of options or get dealt for a PTBNL to make a roster spot to pick-up a backfill for an injury at a spot where the depth is not so deep. Can't keep Matt Maloney and Sam Lecure in AAA as insurance forever and with no room on the big league roster, they'll eventually be lost for nothing. If you won't deal to address a need, what do you do with them?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #15
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Where do we go from here?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
    I think the Reds were looking at Aardsma and Downs.. just couldn't get deals done. Walt was on the record as to saying the players they were after were not dealt.
    Yep. And we don't know why either. Maybe the teams dangling them weren't really serious, but were doing so to see what they could get in return, only to pull back.

    I did like these two quotes from the article...

    Unlike many of the other potential buyers, the Reds were in a tougher spot when it came to making potential trades. The top hitting team in the National League with a strong rotation, they have no glaring weaknesses. That made Jocketty hesitant to bring someone in unless they were head-and-shoulders better than a player already in-house.
    Now to be fair, that is Sheldon saying the Reds have no glaring weakness, and not Jocketty. But RZ will have a field day with the statement regardless. :

    Jocketty did say this though, and I agree with him......

    "The one thing I've learned -- you have to have patience and you have to have discipline to prevent from making deals like that just to make a deal," Jocketty said. "Because a lot of times, you make a deal that you might regret later. I've had several experienced guys from the past that told me some of the times the best deals you make are the ones you don't make. Obviously there were clubs coming at us for some of our top young talent, but we just weren't going to trade for deals we didn't think would really change our club."
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations


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