Why trades of prospects must happen

[Kc61]

The Louisville roster is full of players who will very soon need major league playing time.

Alonso, Francisco, Dorn, Valaika, Cozart.

(I assume Frazier could use another year at AAA after his slow start this season.)

On the pitching side there are Chapman, Maloney, Lecure, Jukish, Del Rosario, Burton, Herrera.

And maybe Fisher and Smith go to AAA when Izzy and Springer come up. That only adds to the logjam.

The Reds obviously don't have room for all of them. They can't keep them at AAA as insurance forever.

Isn't there a logjam that requires some promotions and some deals? Reds can't just sit with all these guys at AAA indefinitely.

Views?

[BuckWild03]

I would agree with this if it weren't for the lack of quality players "available" on the trade market. I don't want to see the Reds make a move just to make a move.

[Kc61]

I would agree with this if it weren't for the lack of quality players "available" on the trade market. I don't want to see the Reds make a move just to make a move.

These deals don't have to be right now. But I think the Reds should be moving AAA guys in trades by this off-season.

[BuckWild03]

I agree. Not sure who the big name free agents will be this off-season but I definitely think Alonso, at the very least, is dispensable.

[lollipopcurve]

These deals don't have to be right now. But I think the Reds should be moving AAA guys in trades by this off-season.

You're right that this kind of trade must be made in the relatively near future. But the Reds won't be "up against it" until options start running out. So, I think that means that they could conceivably run Alonso and Francisco (and Cozart) out at Louisville again next year. And that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. After all, you have to think that at least one of these guys, maybe more, will be needed as a key player by the Reds down the line, and the extra seasoning would likely be beneficial.

The key, of course, is finding the right deal. I'm sure the Reds have a number of players they're interested in and are just waiting to see if those players will be made available. I would prefer they hold their bullets until they can bag big game, instead of dribbling the prospect bounty away on some spare parts.

[camisadelgolf]

The Louisville roster is full of players who will very soon need major league playing time.

Alonso, Francisco, Dorn, Valaika, Cozart.

(I assume Frazier could use another year at AAA after his slow start this season.)

On the pitching side there are Chapman, Maloney, Lecure, Jukish, Del Rosario, Burton, Herrera.

And maybe Fisher and Smith go to AAA when Izzy and Springer come up. That only adds to the logjam.

The Reds obviously don't have room for all of them. They can't keep them at AAA as insurance forever.

Isn't there a logjam that requires some promotions and some deals? Reds can't just sit with all these guys at AAA indefinitely.

Views?

I agree with you in principle, but I don't really see any urgency to bring those guys up. Even in 2011, I think the Reds can afford to keep pretty much all those guys short of Burton in AAA. I say Burton is an exception because I think he'll be non-tendered unless he returns to form at the major league level.

[cinreds21]

Smith has done pretty well, I don't really think he's deserving of being sent down, yet.

[flash]

I have often suggested that the Reds should try to obtain Eduardo Nunez, SS from the Yankees. With Jeter still at shortstop his future there is questionable. I said the Reds could offer Francisco or Alonso. But the Yanks may want young pitching Their staff is like the Geritol gang.

Another potential SS is Osvado Martinez From the Marlins. He is hitting .301 in the Southern League. The Marlins do need help in the outfield right now.

I think the Reds could stand to improve at short, third, and the outfield. Cabrera is all right and is a proven winner, but the Reds need someone at the top of the line-up who can get on base.

Rolen is a good player, not great. At his age he is also only a 110-120 game player. A good back-up at third would be helpful. That is why I think the Reds should try to protect Mendez.

The Reds outfield is all right. There is nothing special about it. Stubbs is a big disappointment. (I believe he is 0-his last 24.) He also can't bunt. Bruce has his rocket arm and Gomes has power. I don't see Nix in the future at all. Because of this I think Dorn and Sappelt will be pushing for a spot next year. Heisey too.

Cozart is all right, but I doubt if he is any better than Cabrera.

All in all, the Reds minor league performances this year have been bad. Aside from Dorn, Sappelt and Merasco, and Mendez, there hasn't been any outstanding play. for the most part of the year the Reds farm teams have been trying top stay out of the cellar which is not good.

[Brutus]

The Louisville roster is full of players who will very soon need major league playing time.

Alonso, Francisco, Dorn, Valaika, Cozart.

(I assume Frazier could use another year at AAA after his slow start this season.)

On the pitching side there are Chapman, Maloney, Lecure, Jukish, Del Rosario, Burton, Herrera.

And maybe Fisher and Smith go to AAA when Izzy and Springer come up. That only adds to the logjam.

The Reds obviously don't have room for all of them. They can't keep them at AAA as insurance forever.

Isn't there a logjam that requires some promotions and some deals? Reds can't just sit with all these guys at AAA indefinitely.

Views?

Some of these guys (like Valaika) probably don't have to be added to the 40-man roster, and thus don't have to go anywhere. Sure, it will be time for them to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft if they aren't added, but most of the guys not already on the 40-man aren't going to be in high demand -- especially since the prerequisite of taking someone in the Rule 5 is that they have to be added to the active roster all season.

[HokieRed]

Valaika's on the 40 now, though I'd be surprised if he is at the time of Rule 5.

[flash]

Some of these guys (like Valaika) probably don't have to be added to the 40-man roster, and thus don't have to go anywhere. Sure, it will be time for them to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft if they aren't added, but most of the guys not already on the 40-man aren't going to be in high demand -- especially since the prerequisite of taking someone in the Rule 5 is that they have to be added to the active roster all season.

That may or may not be true. Dorn didn't go anywhere last year because he had never had an outstanding season.

Both he and Vailaika have done well this year so they will be targets for teams with spots to fill. They are also cheaper than free agents. Mendez will be a target also. Cozart might be, but since he is nothing special offensively he might be all right.

I believe Mesaraco will be on the 40 man roster. Sappelt has another year before being rule five eligible.

[dougdirt]

That may or may not be true. Dorn didn't go anywhere last year because he had never had an outstanding season.

Both he and Vailaika have done well this year so they will be targets for teams with spots to fill. They are also cheaper than free agents. Mendez will be a target also. Cozart might be, but since he is nothing special offensively he might be all right.

Zack Cozart would absolutely 100% be taken before Dorn or Valaika.

[Kingspoint]

Trades made of prospects now are "Sell Low" trades.

Trades made to acquire prospects now are "Buy Low" trades.

Do you want to "Sell Low" or "Buy Low"?

If Walt can find a "piece that fits", meaning one of the following:

1. A Quality Reliever, preferably Left-handed
2. A Quality Left-Fielder
3. A Quality Utility Infielder (basically a tweener Starter/UI)

....then I'm sure he's willing to "Sell Low" a couple of prospects.

Otherwise, nobody in the Minors are being moved until the off-season, when you can get fair market value for them.

I left out Shortstop on purpose because I don't think Walt will go down that road as Dusty loves Cabrera, Cabrera's having a great July (for him), and Cabrera keeps coming up with some quality "veteran" moments.

[camisadelgolf]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Provided the Reds plan on buying out Orlando Cabrera's contract, it would make a lot of sense if the Reds were to trade Aaron Harang for Chin-lung Hu in August. It wouldn't be a huge salary increase for the Dodgers, who should probably expect Vicente Padilla to implode or John Ely to get tired before the end of the season. Because they already have Rafael Furcal, they don't have much room for Hu since he'll be out of options after this year. He would be a good addition for the Reds because he would compete with Janish and Cozart for the majority of playing time at shortstop next season.

[mth123]

The Louisville roster is full of players who will very soon need major league playing time.

Alonso, Francisco, Dorn, Valaika, Cozart.

(I assume Frazier could use another year at AAA after his slow start this season.)

On the pitching side there are Chapman, Maloney, Lecure, Jukish, Del Rosario, Burton, Herrera.

And maybe Fisher and Smith go to AAA when Izzy and Springer come up. That only adds to the logjam.

The Reds obviously don't have room for all of them. They can't keep them at AAA as insurance forever.

Isn't there a logjam that requires some promotions and some deals? Reds can't just sit with all these guys at AAA indefinitely.

Views?

I could not agree more. I'll go a step further and say that now is most certainly the time. I love the next several years of Reds baseball. The young talent should provide a nice competitive run for us long suffering fans, but even with that, I'm just not real sure that they will ever be any better than they are in 2010.

I don't expect the Reds to get an .800 plus OPS from a gold glove winning second baseman again in the next five years, but they are getting it now.

I don't expect the Reds to have a top defender with a .900 OPS bat at third any time in the next five years, but they are getting it now.

I don't expect a catching tandem that has a starter with a .773 OPS with a back-up who is a better defender with an OPS of .850, but they are getting it now.

The CF is an elite defender who may improve a little if he can figure when to swing and when not to, but he's providing some pop, he's not an automatic out, he runs like the wind and while I don't expect a drop-off, other than a couple more times per month on base, I don't really expect a ton of improvement over what they are getting at this position now.

The young rotation is competitive almost every night and while Cueto may take his step forward and Volquez may resume his role as the strong number three, the team will likely lose one of the top innings eaters in baseball over the last five years, who takes the ball and lays down a solid foundation of competitve innings that gives the team a chance to win far more often than not. The two youngest guys (Leake and Wood) might be pretty decent starters for a while, but its going to be hard for either to top their debuts. Improvement will need to come from a couple of hard throwers with control issues (and one an injury problem) in Bailey and Chapman and its not any kind of certainty that the loss of Arroyo and the likely reversion to being human by Leake and Wood can be entirely offset. Its hard to say that they'll be any better than what they are getting right now.

Finally, as good as he is, I don't have any expectations that the Reds are going to have a first baseman who leads the league in HR, Slg % and OBP. They are getting it now and it's pretty rare. I'd expect that type of production will fall off either because its near impossible for a player to sustain or because any player who can sustain it is the second coming of Lou Gehrig and probably not long for Cincinnati.

The team has lots of major league caliber kids on the way, but they really aren't going to play in front of the guys already here. Cozart, Mesoraco and Chapman may provide some good play to help offset the drop we're likely to see from several spots (along with improvement from Jay Bruce), but the other guys may only be slight improvements on the margins. Carlos Fisher, for example, might be a pretty good 7th inning guy but he's probably not the difference in winning and losing. Matt Maloney might have a career as a back-end guy, but he's not cracking the Reds rotation. Todd Frazier may excel in the role that Miguel Cairo currently plays, but the Reds found Cairo and he's doing quite well for just as cheap and its not worth passing on a key upgrade to hang onto the kid. Yonder Alonso has a reputation as a hitter and I still think he will be, but he plays a position filled with bats and while we all hope for the next Pujols, Lyle Overbay is more realistic. Potentialy nice player, not any kind of upgrade to what is already here. For those that have been around a while, think Danny Driessen trying to replace Tony Perez, nice player, he'll never be as productive. Deal him for an upgrade somewhere else.

Teams win championships by capitalizing on having a roster full of career years when the competition is down and while we all want to see this team grow throughout the decade, we're getting that right now. Having all these major league caliber kids is great for a team trying to find its way from 75 wins to 88 or so, but the next step requires upgrades at the top of the roster not more interchangeable parts at the bottom. I don't think there will be a better time and this team should be aiming for a championship in 2010.