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View Poll Results: Reason for tonight?

Voters
47. You may not vote on this poll
  • Too much rest

    12 25.53%
  • Wearing out

    10 21.28%
  • Not enough rest

    0 0%
  • Just a bad start.

    25 53.19%
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Thread: Mike Leake tonight?

  1. #1
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    Mike Leake tonight?

    Heres another poll.
    Quote Originally Posted by moewan View Post
    Barmaid to patron "Sir you are slurring, I am going to have to cut you off"

    Patron to barmaid "I'm not slurring, I'm speaking in cursive"


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  3. #2
    Hot Stove Season HotCorner's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    Mike Leake. Wall.

    Wall. Mike Leake.

  4. #3
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    Leake didn't pitch well tonight but keep in mind that Scott Rolen botched an inning ending double play. If Rolen makes that play, the inning is over with 0 runs scored. Instead, six runs scored. But yeah, Leake hasn't looked as sharp lately. It looks like he could be wearing down.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #4
    Hot Stove Season HotCorner's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    Last 2 months (9 starts) prior to tonight's start:

    June - 5.22 ERA | 1.77 WHIP
    July - 4.56 ERA | 1.32 WHIP

  6. #5
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    I think these graphs tell the story well:







    Mainly the last one. He's been serving up a lot of Ball de Gopheur while not striking out many and walking a fair amount.

    I think it's just an adjustment period + him maybe running out of steam.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  7. #6
    Formerly Farsighted Fan sabometrics's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    No need to read too much into it imo. Likely the league is adjusting to him, but he still has been pitching at a level of a 4 or 5 guy. With other guys stepping up their games it isn't too much of a concern for me.
    "He looked like a surfer kid from SoCal," manager Dusty Baker says. "He didn't say much, but you could tell he was cool."

  8. #7
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    I'm sure the book is out on Leake and he's gonna have to adjust to continue having success.... Dude likes to pound the zone... Everybody knows that know, so hitters are going to the plate ready to swing... He's gotta continue to mix things up...
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  9. #8
    Reds fan for life!!!! WVPacman's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    The only thing that I hope for is that I don't want the reds to skip every other start for Leake.I personally think thats why he had so much trouble tonight b/c of that.Welch said tonight that Leake could pitch over 200 hundred innings! So if the kid says he can do it then give him a chance.We are in a playoff race and the last thing we need is to start screwing up our young pitcher.Mize well go a head and bring up Lacure to pitch the rest of the season or go out and get another pitcher.JMO
    I can spell,I just can't type!!

  10. #9
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    If Rolen makes that play, or it's ruled an error.....Leake has a very good start. Only 1 ball hit hard that I recall.....I just don't think it was as tragic as it seemed.

    That said, resting him is obviously wise, not sure how they get that done right now.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  11. #10
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    If Rolen makes that play, or it's ruled an error.....Leake has a very good start. Only 1 ball hit hard that I recall.....I just don't think it was as tragic as it seemed.

    That said, resting him is obviously wise, not sure how they get that done right now.
    What about piggy backing when Homer's ready?

    Volquez throws 3-4 then Leake throws 3-4 or vica versa? That way they know going in and getting warm isnt an issue? Just a thought if we're going to continue running them both out there.
    Quote Originally Posted by moewan View Post
    Barmaid to patron "Sir you are slurring, I am going to have to cut you off"

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  12. #11
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    Leake is going to be OK. Just like golf. I tore my rotator cuff last winter and didn't play golf for awhile-- a couple of weeks. When I came back, I had lost eveything though I was healty. You cannot sit idle. so shut him down or let him pitch. One or the other.

    I finally got back to my game.

  13. #12
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    Quote Originally Posted by WVPacman View Post
    The only thing that I hope for is that I don't want the reds to skip every other start for Leake.I personally think thats why he had so much trouble tonight b/c of that.Welch said tonight that Leake could pitch over 200 hundred innings! So if the kid says he can do it then give him a chance.We are in a playoff race and the last thing we need is to start screwing up our young pitcher.Mize well go a head and bring up Lacure to pitch the rest of the season or go out and get another pitcher.JMO
    No thanks. Heard on the radio broadcast that he pitched 140 innings last year plus another 20 after he signed. So, (if that's true) I would be ok with shifting him to the bullpen after 170-175 ip as long as they don't use him too much out of the bullpen. We should have someone ready to take his spot in the rotation by then.

    But 200 ip? Why push it?
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  14. #13
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    Leake hasn't been very good for the last couple months. After last night, he's at 126 IP. He can go another 50 or so, but at this point, he's the weakest link in the rotation. After a couple more starts he'll be approaching last season's IP numbers (I don't think the AFL innings should be considered since they came after a 3 month lay-off. We're trying to manage the effect of taking the ball and going out there without all that time to recover). I think he has to be considered a guy who might need to be optioned who can get his work in at AAA for the rest of the season and then be shut down when the AAA season ends. The Reds will be getting Homer back at about that point and if he has another good rehab, he should probably get another crack at it.

    In Leake's last 10 starts (Starting in June) He's thrown 60 Innings, walked 19 (a still good 2.85 BB/9), Struck out 33 (4.95 K/9) for a k/BB ratio of 1.73. He's allowed 10 HR for a HR/9 rate of 1.5. His ERA is 5.40. Some of that is bad luck (like last night) and some is being left in too long, but his early dominance might be giving him a bit of a free pass. First time around the league and no book on him at all since teams didn't even have guys who may have faced him in the minor leagues helped him to a hot start, but he may never have another 10 start stretch as good as he was in April and May. Those K and HR numbers suggest back-end guy and not some one we'd want pitching a big game down the stretch or in the post season.

    I think the league is adjusting and Leake may not be one of the best five with everyone healthy. He won't be available for the post-season anyway and even though Bailey and Volquez are also question marks, they have the profile that might get them on a roll and could allow them to put up a dominant stretch in the post season and it may be worth seeing if the Reds can catch that lightning in a bottle. By the time October rolls around both Leake and Wood will be over the limit of safely pitching and Cueto will be in uncharted waters from an IP standpoint. Since the Reds were unable to acquire a stabilizer, they really need to try and get the high ceiling guys rolling. HokieRed suggested that the Reds should start stretching Chapman back-out for a late boost to the rotation. I agree, this team is going to need some more options down the strech. Give the three big arms (Volquez, Bailey and Chapman) a chance to get on a roll and provide a TOR presence even if its only for a well timed stretch.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  15. #14
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    Leake has had a successful season for a rookie but he's basically been a back end guy based upon his below average peripherals...

    NL ave starter: FIP: 4.17, K/9: 6.9; BB/9: 3.15; K/BB: 2.17;

    Mike Leake: FIP: 4.44, K/9:5.57; BB/9: 3.14; K/BB:1.77.

    For context, to draft a starter who immediately impacts the 25 man roster at all has to be considered a homerun. But also for context, Leake isn't anything close to the question posed by the "Is Mike Leake the ace of the rotation?" thread.

    Hi early ERA may have skewed expectations a bit.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #15
    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake tonight?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    His early ERA may have skewed expectations a bit.
    I worry about the "Jay Bruce effect" among the fan base with Leake's early showing. Hopefully we can all be happy with what he becomes instead of being disappointed if he doesn't morph into a HOFer.


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