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Thread: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

  1. #31
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I don't expect him to hit better in the bigs. I never said he'd be a .750 ops guy. I just don't understand the thinking that he'd be a .600 or lower ops guy. Once he adapted to a level, he was basically .700...so the bigs he'd be a bit lower if he maintained his physical strength at that age. But he's IMPROVED that aspect. So instead of dropping to...say, .650 ops in MLB, it'd be more like .675 or even .700. But like I said, even that .650 is better than Cabrera (even without considering defense).



    The key is that he makes plays that CABRERA doesn't make. Hence, marked improvement. And that's if his glove is average as you basically describe it.
    I think Cabrera was worn down and injured by a manager who refused to let his understudy play a little more and I think we've seen a couple months of him at his worst. I agree that Janish should have gotten more time earlier, but I think the biggest benefit would have been a better Cabrera. Janish is OK, but he's not a long term solution.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #32
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    .750 OPS for Janish is unrealistic but .650 isn't out of the question. Where would a .650 OPS and +10 glove put him WAR wise?
    I don't think .280/.360/.390 is unrealistic. Optimistic, sure. But not unrealistic. The guy makes a lot of contact and works a fair number of walks. Maintain a decent BABIP and make a lot of decent contact and you're going to hit for a decent average. His career LD% at the major league level is north of 20%.

    The question is whether or not he can sustain a reasonable BABIP. His 2008 and 2009 were marred by a .230 and .247 BABIP respectively despite healthy line drive rates. I appreciate that he doesn't quite sting the ball the way some guys do, but I don't see why we should expect him to vary so significantly from the rest of baseball. This year his BABIP is at .297 and lo and behold he's hitting .269/.364/.403. As for the increase in power (ISO), he's 28 -- this is when guys tend to be entering their power peak.

    I wouldn't exactly put money on him sustaining his current .327 wOBA (league average is around .330), but the idea that this is fundamentally unsustainable based on his skill set simply doesn't make sense to me.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-04-2010 at 08:55 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #33
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Yeah it's a real head scratcher.
    Code:
    YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   SLG  OBA   OPS
    2008 Reds         25   38    80    5   15   2   0   1   1.25    6    7   18    0   0  .188  .250  .270  .520 
    2009 Reds         26   90   256   36   54  21   0   1   0.39   16   26   40    2   0  .211  .305  .296  .601 
         TOTALS           128   336   41   69  23   0   2   0.60   22   33   58    2   0  .205  .292  .290  .582 
         LG AVERAGE             362   49   96  20   2  11   2.99   47   38   71    6   3  .266  .423  .339  .762 
         POS AVERAGE            360   49   96  18   3   7   1.96   38   31   55    9   3  .268  .393  .328  .721

    You've got to look deeper than the final season totals. Half of those ab's in 2009 were so sporadic that you can't take anything away from them looking forward. As a golfer, I shoot in the high 90's low 100's. Because I play once or twice a year. When I was playing regularly (few times a month, which is a lot for me), I was in the mid to low 80's. Repetition makes a HUGE difference as does regularity. Paul's gotten little of that. A month long run last year. If he struggles for the month, his "season" totals are shot to hell.

    The fact that Paul tends to struggle when he's not used regularly tells me that he won't make a very good pinch hitter over his career. Doesn't tell me anything about what he'll be like playing everyday though.
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 08-04-2010 at 08:54 PM.
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    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
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  5. #34
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    What's his combined OpS between 2009 and 2010?

    What is the NL average OpS for SS?
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  6. #35
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Yeah it's a real head scratcher.
    Code:
    YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   SLG  OBA   OPS
    2008 Reds         25   38    80    5   15   2   0   1   1.25    6    7   18    0   0  .188  .250  .270  .520 
    2009 Reds         26   90   256   36   54  21   0   1   0.39   16   26   40    2   0  .211  .305  .296  .601 
         TOTALS           128   336   41   69  23   0   2   0.60   22   33   58    2   0  .205  .292  .290  .582 
         LG AVERAGE             362   49   96  20   2  11   2.99   47   38   71    6   3  .266  .423  .339  .762 
         POS AVERAGE            360   49   96  18   3   7   1.96   38   31   55    9   3  .268  .393  .328  .721
    Why doesn't this year count?

    Code:
                                                                                                                            
    Year   Age  Tm  Lg   G  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB  Pos Awards
    2008    25 CIN  NL  38  89  80  5 15  2  0  1   6  0  0  7 18 .188 .270 .250 .520   37  20   2   2  0  0   0           6
    2009    26 CIN  NL  90 292 256 36 54 21  0  1  16  2  0 26 40 .211 .296 .305 .601   59  78   8   5  5  0   1        6/51
    2010    27 CIN  NL  40  78  67  8 18  3  0  2   9  0  2  9 11 .269 .364 .403 .767  105  27   0   1  1  0   1        6/54
    3 Seasons          168 459 403 49 87 26  0  4  31  2  2 42 69 .216 .302 .310 .613   62 125  10   8  6  0               2
    162 Game Avg.      162 443 389 47 84 25  0  4  30  2  2 41 67 .216 .302 .310 .613   62 121  10   8  6  0               2
    No, not awesome but compare Janish's line to O-Cab's line this year:


    Code:
                                                                                                                           
    Year   Age  Tm Lg   G  PA  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
    2010    35 CIN NL 102 453 416 51 108 24  0  3  37 11  3 25 47 .260 .302 .339 .641   71 141  11   3  3  6   0         *6
    The question is, is .028, worse glove and a heady blend of vetty herbs and spices worth $4mm?
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  7. #36
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I don't think .280/.360/.390 is unrealistic. Optimistic, sure. But not unrealistic. The guy makes a lot of contact and works a fair number of walks. Maintain a decent BABIP and make a lot of decent contact and you're going to hit for a decent average. His career LD% at the major league level is north of 20%.

    The question is whether or not he can sustain a reasonable BABIP. His 2008 and 2009 were marred by a .230 and .247 BABIP respectively despite healthy line drive rates. I appreciate that he doesn't quite sting the ball the way some guys do, but I don't see why we should expect him to vary so significantly from the rest of baseball. This year his BABIP is at .297 and lo and behold he's hitting .269/.364/.403. As for the increase in power (ISO), he's 28 -- this is when guys tend to be entering their power peak.

    I wouldn't exactly put money on him sustaining his current .327 wOBA (league average is around .330), but the idea that this is fundamentally unsustainable based on his skill set simply doesn't make sense to me.

    Gotta update that stat line. :O) He's hitting .300/ .395/ .471 now.

    Oh yeah....and I agree. He's showing more power the past 2 years, and he's still a nice contact hitter. Thus...improvement.
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 08-04-2010 at 09:00 PM.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  8. #37
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    If it were that simple he would have done it years ago. More likely it's the usual small sample size/hot streak/luck.

    And, frankly, I'm not as enamored with Janish's glove as some on here. It's good, not great.

    He's what we've got for now. I think that there's a good chance that that will change by Opening Day 2011.

    Rem
    Ryan Ludwig says hi. Some guys develop late. Some never do. Which one is Janish?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Using the low minor numbers to boost a 24 year old can be a mistake of Jeff Jones proportion. The fact is the more advanced the pitching has gotten the lower Janish's numbers have gotten with regular playing time.

    215 trips to the plate last year was enough for some, evidently a good game against the Pirates means more to some than others.
    His sample is small enough right now that good and bad days have wild effects on his OPS. So that's true enough. But its been more than 1 good game.
    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Yeah it's a real head scratcher.
    Code:
    YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   SLG  OBA   OPS
    2008 Reds         25   38    80    5   15   2   0   1   1.25    6    7   18    0   0  .188  .250  .270  .520 
    2009 Reds         26   90   256   36   54  21   0   1   0.39   16   26   40    2   0  .211  .305  .296  .601 
         TOTALS           128   336   41   69  23   0   2   0.60   22   33   58    2   0  .205  .292  .290  .582 
         LG AVERAGE             362   49   96  20   2  11   2.99   47   38   71    6   3  .266  .423  .339  .762 
         POS AVERAGE            360   49   96  18   3   7   1.96   38   31   55    9   3  .268  .393  .328  .721
    And his past performance in the high minors and as a Red last year still don't take into account the premise that Janish HAS gotten stronger. Look deeper at his numbers. All of them. His OBP is almost always 80-100 points higher than his BA. That indicates some plate discipline. His problem is he doesn't hit enough singles. 2006-2009 20+ doubles a year. That isn't an accident, that's a trend. So take his improved strength into account. If he is stronger, dribblers might start shooting through. More singles. He's got the frame to hit the ball harder.

    If Janish can hit .250+ for the rest of the season Cabrera is an afterthought. If he hits .250+ he'll OBP .340. His history says he has better plate discipline than Phillips.

    He needs more singles. That's it.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #38
    Formerly Farsighted Fan sabometrics's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    .750 OPS for Janish is unrealistic but .650 isn't out of the question. Where would a .650 OPS and +10 glove put him WAR wise?
    Adam Everett did this for 4 years basically from 2003-2006. He averaged just over 2.1 WAR per year. Not spectacular, but very useful to a lot of teams. Everett's 2006 is pretty outlandish though. His value came entirely from his glove that year as he was +25. 2003-2005 are very realistic comps to what Janish can provide over the next few years if he got a similar amount of ABs.
    "He looked like a surfer kid from SoCal," manager Dusty Baker says. "He didn't say much, but you could tell he was cool."

  10. #39
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    I think Nick Punto is another decent comp. Again, nothing to write home about, but something nearing league average. Certainly better than paying millions for less than that.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #40
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by sabometrics View Post
    Adam Everett did this for 4 years basically from 2003-2006. He averaged just over 2.1 WAR per year. Not spectacular, but very useful to a lot of teams. Everett's 2006 is pretty outlandish though. His value came entirely from his glove that year as he was +25. 2003-2005 are very realistic comps to what Janish can provide over the next few years if he got a similar amount of ABs.
    And Everett was on some very successful teams from 2003 to 2006.

    Has anyone noticed the other two (East and West) NL leaders have Alex Gonzalez and Jerry Hairston, Jr. currently as their starting shortstops.
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  12. #41
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I don't think .280/.360/.390 is unrealistic. Optimistic, sure. But not unrealistic. The guy makes a lot of contact and works a fair number of walks. Maintain a decent BABIP and make a lot of decent contact and you're going to hit for a decent average. His career LD% at the major league level is north of 20%.

    The question is whether or not he can sustain a reasonable BABIP. His 2008 and 2009 were marred by a .230 and .247 BABIP respectively despite healthy line drive rates. I appreciate that he doesn't quite sting the ball the way some guys do, but I don't see why we should expect him to vary so significantly from the rest of baseball. This year his BABIP is at .297 and lo and behold he's hitting .269/.364/.403. As for the increase in power (ISO), he's 28 -- this is when guys tend to be entering their power peak.

    I wouldn't exactly put money on him sustaining his current .327 wOBA (league average is around .330), but the idea that this is fundamentally unsustainable based on his skill set simply doesn't make sense to me.
    It's only around 250 PA's, but since he took over for Gonzalez last year, Janish has very close to a .750 OPS.

    He may not sustain that, but just watching him hit this year, it's really hard to conclude that he has not improved as a hitter from when he came up. The question is by how much.
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  13. #42
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    .750 OPS is an absurd target for Janish. That doesn't mean he's not better (or as good) than Cabrera though.

  14. #43
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    .750 OPS is an absurd target for Janish. That doesn't mean he's not better (or as good) than Cabrera though.
    I'm just curious, what aspects of his performance so far this year do you think are unsustainable? Contact rate? Power? Walks? Batted ball results?

    Again, I'm not arguing that he will sustain all of those, but I don't see the absurdity in suggesting it's a legitimate possibility.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #44
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    For all the argument about Janish's ceiling, here is all that matters: Janish > Orlando Cabrera. Janish helps this team more offensively and defensively than Cabrera at this point in their respective careers.

  16. #45
    Member NDRed's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    For all the argument about Janish's ceiling, here is all that matters: Janish > Orlando Cabrera. Janish helps this team more offensively and defensively than Cabrera at this point in their respective careers.
    And that is certainly sustainable.
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