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Thread: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

  1. #46
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'm just curious, what aspects of his performance so far this year do you think are unsustainable? Contact rate? Power? Walks? Batted ball results?

    Again, I'm not arguing that he will sustain all of those, but I don't see the absurdity in suggesting it's a legitimate possibility.
    You truly think it's a legitimate possibility that a player who's last four seasons have been this:

    AA .245/.356/.330 - .686
    AAA .240/.306/.360 - .666
    MLB .205/.290/.292 - .582

    Has now become a .750 OPS every day player in the majors? It is going to take more than 80+ PAs to convince me of that, regardless of how the peripherals from those 80 PAs look.

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  3. #47
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    You truly think it's a legitimate possibility that a player who's last four seasons have been this:

    AA .245/.356/.330 - .686
    AAA .240/.306/.360 - .666
    MLB .205/.290/.292 - .582

    Has now become a .750 OPS every day player in the majors? It is going to take more than 80+ PAs to convince me of that, regardless of how the peripherals from those 80 PAs look.
    I guess it's not a possibility for Votto to OpS 1.030 this year, and Brandon Phillips has no business being an .800 OpS guy after the way his career started.

    Possibility is the question, not probability.
    (also, I'm not sure why 2010 stats are just thrown aside?)
    Last edited by VR; 08-05-2010 at 12:00 AM.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  4. #48
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    You truly think it's a legitimate possibility that a player who's last four seasons have been this:

    AA .245/.356/.330 - .686
    AAA .240/.306/.360 - .666
    MLB .205/.290/.292 - .582

    Has now become a .750 OPS every day player in the majors? It is going to take more than 80+ PAs to convince me of that, regardless of how the peripherals from those 80 PAs look.
    I'm not sure if you read what I wrote. I never claimed he "has now become" a .750 OPS bat. I've stated that it's not "absurd" to suggest that it's possible. There's a BIG difference there.

    In any event, his defense is such that even with a .650 OPS, he represents an equal or better option than Caberra. Let's all hope he continues to hit well and that Cozart can translate his AAA success to the majors in 2011.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-05-2010 at 12:17 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #49
    Member GOYA's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    I'm perfectly content to sit back and see how Janish does with this opportunity. At the end of the season, we'll see how he did. Of course, for some of you, his performance this season is meaningless because it's going to be a small sample size. It seems that statistics overshadow baseball for some folks here.

  6. #50
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    I think it's unlikely over a full season that Janish would achieve being a .750 OPS bat. However, I do think being a .700 OPS bat is reasonable and with his glove, that would be above league average.

  7. #51
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    I'm perfectly content to sit back and see how Janish does with this opportunity. At the end of the season, we'll see how he did. Of course, for some of you, his performance this season is meaningless because it's going to be a small sample size. It seems that statistics overshadow baseball for some folks here.
    Statistic are a result of the baseball played, it's not a separate entity in any way at all, it's just a picture that like a photograph is not the exact rendering of a moment, but a recording of one.

  8. #52
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Bat him 8th and hope for the best. His glove will be strong and his hitting is a bonus. Is he better than OCab? No. Better fielder, for sure (and OCab isn't that bad), but OCab just seem to make that big hit more often than not. Once again, it's an old guy thing. I observe and what I see is a guy who gets the big hit more often, but that may be perception. If it had been me, I would have rested OCab more and given Paul some playing time. I think he's a .250 hitter with a sub .300 OBP. Prove me wrong, Janish!

  9. #53
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    I think he's a .250 hitter with a sub .300 OBP. Prove me wrong, Janish!
    Which is basically what Cabrera has been this season: .260 BA/.302 OBP.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  10. #54
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Why doesn't this year count?
    Because the software I use is year to year.

  11. #55
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    You've got to look deeper than the final season totals. Half of those ab's in 2009 were so sporadic that you can't take anything away from them looking forward. As a golfer, I shoot in the high 90's low 100's. Because I play once or twice a year. When I was playing regularly (few times a month, which is a lot for me), I was in the mid to low 80's. Repetition makes a HUGE difference as does regularity. Paul's gotten little of that. A month long run last year. If he struggles for the month, his "season" totals are shot to hell.

    The fact that Paul tends to struggle when he's not used regularly tells me that he won't make a very good pinch hitter over his career. Doesn't tell me anything about what he'll be like playing everyday though.
    From 8-14 until 10-4 in 2009 Janish compiled 74% of his season ab's, playing in 48 games, every game of the season from 8-14, 29% of the teams season.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamel...9130&year=2009

    There is not much sporadic about that, and has absolutely nothing to do with your golf game.

  12. #56
    Member GOYA's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Statistic are a result of the baseball played, it's not a separate entity in any way at all, it's just a picture that like a photograph is not the exact rendering of a moment, but a recording of one.
    Not in the hands of some here. Otherwise, the present day Janish would considered a .300/.395/.471 hitter. Because those numbers are a result of the baseball he has played this season. (the photograph) There is emphasis on predicting the future. There is a wringing of hands if there is an aberration from the "norm".

    It is August and the Reds are leading the division. Janish IS our SS. What he hit 3 years ago isn't going to change that. I expect him to play his butt off. That's the future I care about.

  13. #57
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    Rem...what don't you like about his glove? He's as smooth an SS I've seen out there. Decent range, excellent at starting or turning the DP, and a canon for an arm.
    It's not that I don't think he has a good glove, I just don't think it is as high a caliber as some on this board think. As you said, he has decent range (and probably better than OCab as his stage in his career) but it's not going to set any standards. And, personally, as far as his arm goes, I think it's pretty good but, once again, it doesn't get rave notices from my observations.

    We don't really disagree except to the degree of his play.

    For me, I think that the SS position should, ideally, be manned by the best all-around player on the field and Janish is clearly not that. Neither is Cabrera. But, as long as Dusty is managing the team, he will go with the known commodity. More importantly, I think Walt will be focused on upgrading SS in the off season. I don't really see Janish in his plans unless he has no other choice. And, frankly, I agree with that.

    I'd love to believe that Cozart is the answer but I've yet to see him play and the numbers don't exactly jump out.

    Rem
    Last edited by remdog; 08-05-2010 at 02:05 AM.

  14. #58
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    From everything I've seen so far I love the defense Janish provides. I honestly believe the Reds would be a better team with Janish starting over Cabrera at SS. Neither one of them will hit like Larkin but I'd love to see Janish get to play everyday for the remainder of the season, just to see what he could do.

  15. #59
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    From 8-14 until 10-4 in 2009 Janish compiled 74% of his season ab's, playing in 48 games, every game of the season from 8-14, 29% of the teams season.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamel...9130&year=2009

    There is not much sporadic about that, and has absolutely nothing to do with your golf game.
    During that time when he was getting regular AB's on a daily basis, his OPS was over 100 points higher than before when he wasn't. I doubt it was because of Sir_Charles' golf swing, but I do think it shows that Janish, like most everyone else, is better when he plays everyday.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    I think he's a .250 hitter with a sub .300 OBP. Prove me wrong, Janish!
    If he hits .250, he'll OBA over .300.


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