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Thread: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

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    Member Topcat's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Carlton Fisk and many other players have blossomed in the majors. Better coaching, and food and accommodations along with higher $$$$ cheques cashed can make statistics in minors mean jack chat in the big picture.

    I agree with the projection barometer but it does not apply to every player brought up. If that was the case i would have determined Dickerson as nothing at all. When in truth he could be the 25 th man on any MLB team.
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  3. #62
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'm not sure if you read what I wrote. I never claimed he "has now become" a .750 OPS bat. I've stated that it's not "absurd" to suggest that it's possible. There's a BIG difference there.

    In any event, his defense is such that even with a .650 OPS, he represents an equal or better option than Caberra. Let's all hope he continues to hit well and that Cozart can translate his AAA success to the majors in 2011.
    Right... which is why I asked, do you truly think it's a legitimate possibility that Janish has now become that .750 OPS player? I didn't accuse you of making some proclamation about his future. You think it's possible Janish's numbers this year are due to a true increase in skill to the .750 level, I think that is extremely unlikely.

    We're in full agreement on paragraph #2.

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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    You truly think it's a legitimate possibility that a player who's last four seasons have been this:

    AA .245/.356/.330 - .686
    AAA .240/.306/.360 - .666
    MLB .205/.290/.292 - .582

    Has now become a .750 OPS every day player in the majors? It is going to take more than 80+ PAs to convince me of that, regardless of how the peripherals from those 80 PAs look.
    Why didn't you include this year's numbers (where he has nearly as many PAs as his first call-up) in his MLB totals?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    I'm perfectly content to sit back and see how Janish does with this opportunity. At the end of the season, we'll see how he did. Of course, for some of you, his performance this season is meaningless because it's going to be a small sample size. It seems that statistics overshadow baseball for some folks here.
    Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner. Past performance doesn't mean that much if you change something fundamental about yourself. The here and now matters. And regardless of the numbers, Janish helps this team more than Cabrera does when healthy IMO.

    The point of this thread was for someone to show me some numbers that prove that he's NOT the better option, because I certainly don't see it.
    2014 predictions:
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    From 8-14 until 10-4 in 2009 Janish compiled 74% of his season ab's, playing in 48 games, every game of the season from 8-14, 29% of the teams season.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamel...9130&year=2009

    There is not much sporadic about that, and has absolutely nothing to do with your golf game.
    I'm not disagreeing with that. But the other 71% of the season was EXTREMELY sporadic. As this season has been too. That final month and a half has been his only real consistent playing time in the majors. And unfortunately for Paul, he struggled during it. Was it because he was off for so long prior to those 48 days? Who knows. But rarely do people look beyond the final numbers for the whole season. And those simply don't do some players justice because of how they were used/mis-used.

    Dickerson's in a similar boat, only in his one lengthy stint of regular play, he did well. So his numbers are taken to the other extreme. In reality, they're both somewhere in the middle. Which in Janish's case, makes him a better option than Cabrera for now and in the future IMO.

    And I regret using my golf analogy. :O) I'm a scratch golfer...I swear! *blushes*
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 08-05-2010 at 09:40 AM.
    2014 predictions:
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    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    And regardless of the numbers, Janish helps this team more than Cabrera does when healthy IMO.
    There's the actual point. It's YOUR opinion. No one is saying that you're not entitled to it...but, by definition, then you have to allow others to have a different opinion if they so choose.

    We'll see what happens in over the next few weeks and in 2011. That will probably pretty much tell the story for Janish with the Reds.

    Rem

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    I'm perfectly content to sit back and see how Janish does with this opportunity. At the end of the season, we'll see how he did. Of course, for some of you, his performance this season is meaningless because it's going to be a small sample size. It seems that statistics overshadow baseball for some folks here.
    I think it is pretty telling that Walt went out and got OCab right before the season started. And I also think its pretty telling that Dusty kept writing OCab's name in the lineup day after day. I also haven't heard any Janish > OCab with the exception of here on RZ and Bill James throwing a mention of it earlier this season. It appears like most people associated with baseball felt that OCab was a much better option than Janish.

    Last season when Janish was given substantial playing time at the end of the season he did nothing with it. It forced the Reds hands to go out and get a SS because they couldn't rely on Janish to be the everyday SS. He is getting his chance now with reports of Cabrera being out anywhere from 15 days to 6 weeks. If he doesn't take the job and run with it then he more than likely won't have a future as a starting SS. And to be honest I don't have a problem with it. If your a young MLB player you need to take advantage of your playing time.

    FWIW I don't think Janish will ever hit enough to be a full time starting SS. I also think his defense here is a tad bit over rated.

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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    There's the actual point. It's YOUR opinion. No one is saying that you're not entitled to it...but, by definition, then you have to allow others to have a different opinion if they so choose.

    We'll see what happens in over the next few weeks and in 2011. That will probably pretty much tell the story for Janish with the Reds.

    Rem
    Very true. But many on here are stating that based on the numbers Janish isn't good enough to be the starter. I was wanting numbers to back that up.

    And I do allow others their viewpoints and opinions. I've never said someone else's view was simply wrong. I've said I disagree, but I certainly know that my opinion is FAR from infallible. Heck, it's rarely even listened to. Just ask my wife. *grin*
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  10. #69
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Not sure there is a field general in Janish, and that isn't the end of the world, but it is a very common trait for SS. I'm certain that's why Dusty chose OCab (not just the V word)
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Just ask my wife. *grin*
    Thanks for the offer but she might start telling me about your golf swing.

    Rem

  12. #71
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner. Past performance doesn't mean that much if you change something fundamental about yourself. The here and now matters. And regardless of the numbers, Janish helps this team more than Cabrera does when healthy IMO.

    The point of this thread was for someone to show me some numbers that prove that he's NOT the better option, because I certainly don't see it.
    But that's a key question that shouldn't be begged. Has Janish really fundamentally changed something about himself that should dramatically impact his projections?

    He put up some good numbers as a 23 year old in A ball but since then, his offense has tracked down as he has climbed levels.

    I would be skeptical of a ceiling defined by an OPS in the 700s
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    And, personally, as far as his arm goes, I think it's pretty good but, once again, it doesn't get rave notices from my observations.

    We don't really disagree except to the degree of his play.

    For me, I think that the SS position should, ideally, be manned by the best all-around player on the field and Janish is clearly not that. Neither is Cabrera. But, as long as Dusty is managing the team, he will go with the known commodity. More importantly, I think Walt will be focused on upgrading SS in the off season. I don't really see Janish in his plans unless he has no other choice. And, frankly, I agree with that.

    I'd love to believe that Cozart is the answer but I've yet to see him play and the numbers don't exactly jump out.

    Rem
    IIRC Janish was also a pitcher in high school that used to hit 90+ on the gun. He's probably got one of the better arms at SS.

    Here is the thing I have noticed about Dusty. Some of his in game moves are... puzzling. But as a manager of people, he's top notch, maybe one of the best in the game today. He finds ways to coax every last ounce of production from his players, and recognizes when they can or can't do something. His "vet rep" is really unwarranted. If he has talented youngsters, he plays them. And remember, who is on the 25 man roster isn't entirely up to him. He made the move to drop Stubbs lower in the order, and has now replaced him with Heisey. Heisey and not Nix, the veteran. Yes, he gives a lot of respect to Cabrera, but Cabrera has probably performed exactly to Dusty's expectations. And we can't discount the effect of Cabrera on Phillips either. I think Janish should be the starter from today forward, I think it is time to see if he's the guy or not. I'm not ignoring his past results, I'm just not ignoring that he may have turned a corner.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #73
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I think it is pretty telling that Walt went out and got OCab right before the season started. And I also think its pretty telling that Dusty kept writing OCab's name in the lineup day after day.
    And those two did the same with Wily Taveras.

    Not quite comparing WT with OC, but just saying. It might be telling, but it doesn't mean it's right.

    From what I've seen out of Cozart in AAA (and his entire pro career) and with Janish improving with the stick, I want no part of OC eating up salary and making outs (with limited range on top of that) in 2011.

  15. #74
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Very true. But many on here are stating that based on the numbers Janish isn't good enough to be the starter. I was wanting numbers to back that up.
    Although I agree that Janish should play more, I very much disagree that the offensive numbers to back up the fact he hasn't been good enough to start haven't been shown. He hasn't been a good hitter, 80-ish nice PAs this year notwithstanding. I don't think it's fair or conversational to even imply that those opposed to the idea haven't shown their work. They have. He's not a good hitter.

    That being said, O-Cab and his season wOBA of .289 compared to Janish's career wOBA of .284 leads me to conclude that the former hasn't produced better with the bat than Janish's likely production had he been given the chance.

    He is, however, an excellent defender, perhaps once of the best in the league and this is the biggest reason for him to see more playing time. Surely, Janish's glove more than makes up for .005 points of wOBA.

    Quite honestly, I think the Reds really jerked him around in the offseason as it seems he did everything he could to make it as the starting SS. With O-Cab on the DL, Janish will have a very limited window to prove himself.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Janish. Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB SS?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    ... Has Janish really fundamentally changed something about himself that should dramatically impact his projections?
    FWIW, I do recall Dusty saying in ST that Janish had really improved his arm strength, particularly in his forearms, as Dusty felt that was his hitting weakness last year- that he was being overpowered.


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