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Thread: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

  1. #1
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    Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    I have seen many many posts mentioning how the Reds should be another 5 or 6 games over .500 for various reasons. Some people make the claim this team is underachieving, I for one cannot look at our team on paper and really have ever thought we would be 13 games over .500 this late in the season. We have definitely overachieved thus far.

    This is my view of our lineup on paper

    Phillips - meeting around his potential - Wash
    OCab - playing about where we all expected him - Wash
    Votto - taking the next step to the top tier of 1st baseman in the MLB - Over could be a wash depending on expectations
    Rolen - playing like he did from 97-03 which I never ever expected - BIG OVER
    Gomes - he was a minor league FA, already done more than I expected - Over
    Bruce - was hoping for another step forward, underachieving so far - Under
    Stubbs - career ops .765 in the minors, .686 in his rookie year - Under
    Ramon - OPS is 60 points higher than last season, clutch hitting - Over
    Hanigan - OBP over .400 with some big time hits - Over
    Heisey - a rookie with a .955 OPS and many big pinch hits - Over (needs more pt)
    Nix - about what he did last year, hot of late - Wash
    Cairo - career year - definitely Over
    Janish - just keeps hitting and making plays - Over (getting his chance now)

    Arroyo - just being Arroyo - Wash
    Harang - it's a blessing in disguise he is out - TBD
    Leake - 7-3 3.86 ERA straight out of college - Over
    Cueto - he is pitching like an Ace - Over
    Bailey - didn't build off last year - Under
    Wood - guy has a .87 WHIP! - OVER
    LeCure/Volquez/Maloney - TBD

    Masset - early struggles but is getting it together - Under
    Rhodes - dude was an all-star - Over
    Coco - 29/35 on saves which is ok, bad in non-save situations, definitely regressed this year - Under
    Ondrusek/Smith - rookies throwing lights out - Over/Over
    Herrera - didn't have the same effectiveness - Under
    Owings - just being Owings - Wash
    Lincoln - he just stiiinks - Wash
    Bray - had higher hopes but has only thrown 11.2 innings - TBD

    Overall numbers:

    Wash - 6
    Over - 14
    Under - 6

    Stubbs is really a hard one to gage what kinda expectations but i'll throw him in the Under category.

    Combine this with our pre-season projected record of anywhere from 78-84 to 84-78 we are currently on pace for a 93 win season I would say we are definitely over achieving.

    I am interested to see the opinions of those who agree we are overachieving and also those who think we are underachieving and why that is....
    Last edited by Griffey012; 08-05-2010 at 09:26 PM. Reason: I forgot Rhodes!

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  3. #2
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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    i can't disagree with anything said here.. If Bruce and Stubbs played to their potential, we would be up there with the Yankees as a top team in all of baseball

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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    Only time will tell. It takes perspective to look back and see whether Votto is having a career year, or maybe he rips off 6-7 as good or better over the next 10 years. Or, will Cueto develop into a TOR pitcher or is this the best he gets. Since the Reds have SO many young players you could go on and on.

    To answer your question- The Reds have a good thing going and are over-achieving in relation to pre-season expectations.

  5. #4
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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    I agree with pretty much all the assessments here. Also I definitely feel the team is achieving about the most you could hope for. While alot of the players are having better than expected years, I would credit more of it to chemistry and all those intangibles people hate to give credit to because it seems cliche. Being aggressive on the basepaths and lots of comeback wins are qualities of that I feel. If someone wouldve told me at the beginning of the year the reds current position, I wouldve expected huge years from Bruce, Stubbs and Bailey. Despite the nice years by many, Votto is the only one that has taken that leap to absolute stud in the eyes of the entire league. With that I give Walt and Dusty alot of credit for having a vision of a TEAM and seeing it out so far.

  6. #5
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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    I was going to say the 5th spot in the rotation was the difference, but really it's the entire active starting pitching staff. Cueto has been good and Wood and Leake have really stepped up to get this team over .500. If we have a 2-10 pitcher in the 5 spot this team isn't where it is today.

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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    I think they are playing exactly to their talent levels.

  8. #7
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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    overachieving no doubt. mainly because the role player guys are having above average seasons, and votto is playing at an MVP level. they have been riding the momentum all year, and know they have a legit shot to win the central, gonna be a fun 2nd half

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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    Quote Originally Posted by FlyerFanatic View Post
    overachieving no doubt. mainly because the role player guys are having above average seasons, and votto is playing at an MVP level. they have been riding the momentum all year, and know they have a legit shot to win the central, gonna be a fun 2nd half
    Overachieving but you have FDB in your sig....... hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dale4Saul2Red0 View Post
    Overachieving but you have FDB in your sig....... hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
    whats the saying go? players are winning in spite of dusty? yea..think thats it

  11. #10
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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    Too many stupid losses.

    Every year there are some stupid losses, but this year there is an abundance of stupid losses. That is why I think this team could be more games up in the Central.

    Players tend to come into their own about their third year or in their late 20's, such as 28, 29, 30 years old. We have alot of players coming into their own and in their prime. And then we have that veteran leadership and ability from guys who have played on championship and contending teams, that expect to win. Our weaker links are the young guys who haven't come into their own.

    But the good/excellent starting pitching, to me, is the X factor.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    Ocab, Bailey, Volquez, Harang all under based on what they have done this year so far.

  13. #12
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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Too many stupid losses.

    Every year there are some stupid losses, but this year there is an abundance of stupid losses. That is why I think this team could be more games up in the Central.

    Players tend to come into their own about their third year or in their late 20's, such as 28, 29, 30 years old. We have alot of players coming into their own and in their prime. And then we have that veteran leadership and ability from guys who have played on championship and contending teams, that expect to win. Our weaker links are the young guys who haven't come into their own.

    But the good/excellent starting pitching, to me, is the X factor.
    But you can argue on the flip side, with all the comeback wins this season, how many of those games the Reds probably shouldn't have won, yes, there have been some stupid losses as you put it, but it's pretty much evened out as far as I'm concerned.

  14. #13
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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    First half the offense over achieved and the pitching underachieved. The offense is more than likely due to sputter in the second half but the pitching has been more consistent. It'll be interesting to see what trends emerge

  15. #14
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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    Can we just say that the team has ACHIEVED, period? Could be worse, could be better. It is what it is.

  16. #15
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    Re: Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

    I think the Reds are finally equalling their talent level with their on the field play. But, I do have to say that the Reds have 35 MLB players in their organization, which is very new. Look at our Louisville squad and there are 6-7 guys who could easily play in the bigs and a few of them who could be amazing. This season has been an absolute revelation and I am more excited about the Reds and the organization than I have been since 1999.
    Variatio delectat - Cicero


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