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Thread: We don't have to beat the Cards...

  1. #1
    The Franchise sivman17's Avatar
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    We don't have to beat the Cards...

    we just have to win more games than them. I know this sounds obvious, but I think everyone is making a big deal out of this series. Yes, the Cards are 10-5 against us this season and outplayed us in every aspect of the game this series. But, we only play them 3 more times.

    As I posted in another thread, if you remove the Reds-Cards games, the Reds are 19-18 against .500 or better teams, while the Cards are 23-20.

    The Reds have 16 more games this year against .500 or better teams, and 31 games against sub-.500 teams. In total (including the Cards), the Reds are 24-28 against .500+ teams and 40-23 against sub-.500 teams.

    Removing the Cards from the equation, these are the remaining games the Reds have against .500+ teams and the record against them so far this year:
    LAD (3 more games): 3-3
    SF (3 more games): 2-2
    COL (4 more games): 2-1
    SD (3 more games): 1-3
    We are 8-8 against these teams this season, and we have 13 more games against them.

    Of the remaining losing teams the Reds play, the Reds are 31-13 against those teams so far this season. Those teams are:
    FLA (3 more games): 2-2
    CHC (3 more games): 10-3
    MIL (9 more games): 4-1
    PIT (3 more games): 8-5
    HOU (6 more games): 7-2
    This means that we have 24 more games against teams in which we have posted a .705 winning pct thus far. The Reds also play 7 games against Arizona, whom the Reds have not faced yet this season. Arizona is 45-69, so I expect the Reds to beat up on them.

    Obviously it's painful to watch the Reds lose to the Cards, who are our biggest competition, but in reality it doesn't mean a whole lot, unless we see them in the playoffs. But at this point, we can't worry about who we might face in the playoffs. The three remaining Cardinals games are in the first week of September, which means even that series won't play a huge part in the outcome of the division.

    19 of the last 22 games are against sub-.500 teams.

    If they play true to their winning pct against winning and losing teams so far, the Reds would go 7-9 against the remaining winning teams, and 20-11 against losing teams. This would be a 27-20 finish, which would put the Reds at 91-71 for the season. I know you can't predict remaining wins, but that's why it's called a prediction. I would be happy with a 91-win season, which I think is very reasonable. I also think it could give us a good shot at the playoffs.
    Last edited by sivman17; 08-11-2010 at 06:02 PM.
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  3. #2
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    The logic seems sound but some of those sub .500 teams shouldn't be overlooked. FLA is always tough and Houston has been playing out of their minds as of late. I think they have scored the most runs since the all star break. They have a good young nucleus in Houston to make any game you play against them interesting.

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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    The logic seems sound but some of those sub .500 teams shouldn't be overlooked. FLA is always tough and Houston has been playing out of their minds as of late. I think they have scored the most runs since the all star break. They have a good young nucleus in Houston to make any game you play against them interesting.
    I agree with this. I think we'll know a lot after the west coast trip that always seems to do a number on the Reds. The Brewers are another team that is still scary when you consider a team has Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Ricky Weeks and Corey Hart, I don't care what they're record is, they're more than capable of taking a series. Josh Johnson starting off the Marlins series is another negative thing, you hope to miss him when you play Florida, but they aren't really a sub-500 team when he's on the hill. I'm interested to see what happens with the west coast trip, I think that will be a huge indicator of what's to come in the remainder of the season.

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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    I thought before this series, and this series reinforces my opinion, that the Reds will win the division, but the Cardinals would have a better chance to win the WS.

    The Cards have 2 dominant pitchers. They stacked their rotation to 'win' this series. That will work in any short series and that is why they are a threat in the post-season. The Reds are deeper, especially at the 4th and 5th spots (and 6th or 7th with Bailey and even Harang lurking out there), so over a long season, and we still have about 50 games left, that gives them an advantage.

    These 3 games were bad, but they can definitely win 1 more game than the Cards just by pitching Travis Wood 8 or 9 times when the Cardinals have their #5 out there.

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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    Even if the Reds don't win the division, they can still win the Wild Card. Look at teams that have won the Wild Card and have been in or won the World Series.

  7. #6
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    BRM, Westbrooke has been a real surprise for the Cards. He has pitched really well since coming over. I think its a combo of getting out of the AL, which artificially inflates the ERA's to begin with, and coming to a winning team. The way its set up for the Cardinals, they won't have to use a 5th starter for like a month due to having off days (they have I think 2 off days next week, for example). Now there is some minor controversy with Cards fans because the front starters won't get 6 days of rest. However, going with a 4 man rotation still gives them the best chance to win.


    I also feel really bad for Johnson. I heard a stat that after the game that the bullpen blew for him is that he left the game like 6 or 7 times with the lead. He could easily have 4-6 extra wins if he was with the Reds or Cards.
    Last edited by MikeThierry; 08-11-2010 at 10:11 PM.

  8. #7
    Retro-Gamer Krawhitham's Avatar
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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    No we don't have to beat them, I just hope they miss out on the Wild Card too. That rotation will kill in a 5 or 7 game series

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    The Franchise sivman17's Avatar
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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    I also agree that the Cardinals are more built for the playoffs than the Reds. Their top 3 pitchers are dominant and will keep them in any game.

    But, that's why it's a 162 game season. I am confident that the Reds can win a lot of games down the stretch. If the Cards continue to play like they like did this series, they are going to a bunch of games too.

    I have no idea what's going to happen but I do see it being a neck and neck race, just like it's been for the past 3 months. Someone posted a stat before showing they have been within 3 games of each over for over 90 days or something. I see no reason why that won't continue.

    The only bad thing is people are going to be jumping overboard after we face Josh Johnson.
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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    Quote Originally Posted by sivman17 View Post
    we just have to win more games than them. I know this sounds obvious, but I think everyone is making a big deal out of this series. Yes, the Cards are 10-5 against us this season and outplayed us in every aspect of the game this series. But, we only play them 3 more times.

    As I posted in another thread, if you remove the Reds-Cards games, the Reds are 19-18 against .500 or better teams, while the Cards are 23-20.

    The Reds have 16 more games this year against .500 or better teams, and 31 games against sub-.500 teams. In total (including the Cards), the Reds are 24-28 against .500+ teams and 40-23 against sub-.500 teams.

    Removing the Cards from the equation, these are the remaining games the Reds have against .500+ teams and the record against them so far this year:
    LAD (3 more games): 3-3
    SF (3 more games): 2-2
    COL (4 more games): 2-1
    SD (3 more games): 1-3
    We are 8-8 against these teams this season, and we have 13 more games against them.

    Of the remaining losing teams the Reds play, the Reds are 31-13 against those teams so far this season. Those teams are:
    FLA (3 more games): 2-2
    CHC (3 more games): 10-3
    MIL (9 more games): 4-1
    PIT (3 more games): 8-5
    HOU (6 more games): 7-2
    This means that we have 24 more games against teams in which we have posted a .705 winning pct thus far. The Reds also play 7 games against Arizona, whom the Reds have not faced yet this season. Arizona is 45-69, so I expect the Reds to beat up on them.

    Obviously it's painful to watch the Reds lose to the Cards, who are our biggest competition, but in reality it doesn't mean a whole lot, unless we see them in the playoffs. But at this point, we can't worry about who we might face in the playoffs. The three remaining Cardinals games are in the first week of September, which means even that series won't play a huge part in the outcome of the division.

    19 of the last 22 games are against sub-.500 teams.

    If they play true to their winning pct against winning and losing teams so far, the Reds would go 7-9 against the remaining winning teams, and 20-11 against losing teams. This would be a 27-20 finish, which would put the Reds at 91-71 for the season. I know you can't predict remaining wins, but that's why it's called a prediction. I would be happy with a 91-win season, which I think is very reasonable. I also think it could give us a good shot at the playoffs.
    Amen

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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    Who cares, win those games and beat the Cards.

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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    Quote Originally Posted by sivman17 View Post
    we just have to win more games than them. I know this sounds obvious, but I think everyone is making a big deal out of this series. Yes, the Cards are 10-5 against us this season and outplayed us in every aspect of the game this series. But, we only play them 3 more times.

    As I posted in another thread, if you remove the Reds-Cards games, the Reds are 19-18 against .500 or better teams, while the Cards are 23-20.

    The Reds have 16 more games this year against .500 or better teams, and 31 games against sub-.500 teams. In total (including the Cards), the Reds are 24-28 against .500+ teams and 40-23 against sub-.500 teams.

    Removing the Cards from the equation, these are the remaining games the Reds have against .500+ teams and the record against them so far this year:
    LAD (3 more games): 3-3
    SF (3 more games): 2-2
    COL (4 more games): 2-1
    SD (3 more games): 1-3
    We are 8-8 against these teams this season, and we have 13 more games against them.

    Of the remaining losing teams the Reds play, the Reds are 31-13 against those teams so far this season. Those teams are:
    FLA (3 more games): 2-2
    CHC (3 more games): 10-3
    MIL (9 more games): 4-1
    PIT (3 more games): 8-5
    HOU (6 more games): 7-2
    This means that we have 24 more games against teams in which we have posted a .705 winning pct thus far. The Reds also play 7 games against Arizona, whom the Reds have not faced yet this season. Arizona is 45-69, so I expect the Reds to beat up on them.

    Obviously it's painful to watch the Reds lose to the Cards, who are our biggest competition, but in reality it doesn't mean a whole lot, unless we see them in the playoffs. But at this point, we can't worry about who we might face in the playoffs. The three remaining Cardinals games are in the first week of September, which means even that series won't play a huge part in the outcome of the division.

    19 of the last 22 games are against sub-.500 teams.

    If they play true to their winning pct against winning and losing teams so far, the Reds would go 7-9 against the remaining winning teams, and 20-11 against losing teams. This would be a 27-20 finish, which would put the Reds at 91-71 for the season. I know you can't predict remaining wins, but that's why it's called a prediction. I would be happy with a 91-win season, which I think is very reasonable. I also think it could give us a good shot at the playoffs.

    I agree...mostly because I doubt either teams gets the wildcard spot. Just keep doing what we have done, win the division, and we won't have to worry about the Cards in a short play-off series.

    In the playoff format the Cards are probably the best team in the NL, but their wholes on offense make them the 6th or so best team over 162 games. The Reds are the opposite...built well for the long haul because of depth, but depth isn't as important in the play-offs. History has shown us that you have to have an ace to do really well in the post-season, Reds don't have one, the Cards have two. The Giants have 1 with two more very close to that level...those are the two teams I most fear in a short series.

  13. #12
    part of BBN jmac's Avatar
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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM13 View Post
    I thought before this series, and this series reinforces my opinion, that the Reds will win the division, but the Cardinals would have a better chance to win the WS.

    The Cards have 2 dominant pitchers. They stacked their rotation to 'win' this series. That will work in any short series and that is why they are a threat in the post-season. The Reds are deeper, especially at the 4th and 5th spots (and 6th or 7th with Bailey and even Harang lurking out there), so over a long season, and we still have about 50 games left, that gives them an advantage.

    These 3 games were bad, but they can definitely win 1 more game than the Cards just by pitching Travis Wood 8 or 9 times when the Cardinals have their #5 out there.
    Bingo buddy !

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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    Quote Originally Posted by sivman17 View Post

    As I posted in another thread, if you remove the Reds-Cards games, the Reds are 19-18 against .500 or better teams, while the Cards are 23-20.
    If you remove all of the games the cards lost the cards are 63-0 and have a 1.000 winning percentage. Oh wait unfortunately all games during the season count.

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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    Quote Originally Posted by Yadi for Mayor View Post
    If you remove all of the games the cards lost the cards are 63-0 and have a 1.000 winning percentage. Oh wait unfortunately all games during the season count.
    which is the exact reason why you just swept us and we are only a game out. we are simply winning ball games at almost the same rate you are....so if you slip up for a series and we dont, then we might just be 1 game up on you.....and if that just happens to fall at the end of the yeat then you might just be sitting at home....while we play in october....even if you sweep us labor day weekend in st louis.......ain't baseball awesome?

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    Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

    The Cardinals do have the Cubs on the slate for the weekend. Let's see where we stand after the weekend.


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