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Thread: Reds' Pitchers DER

  1. #1
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Reds' Pitchers DER

    We can easily look up a Team's DER (Defense Efficiency Rating) from several websites. However, I wondered how it varied from pitcher to pitcher within a team. So I took a quick look first at the the 2010 Reds. And next I compared the DER of Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang, since they have both pitched a large number of innings with basically the same fielders behind them for the past five seasons.

    I used my own DER formula and will explain it briefly:
    1) Take IP and multiply by 3 to get the total number of outs needed.
    2) Subtract strikeouts to get the total number of fielding outs needed.
    3) Take PA and subtract out (HR+K+BB+HBP) (things that are out of the control of fielders) to get actual fielding chances.
    4) Divide number of fielding outs needed by number of actual fielding chances.

    Okay that is out of the way. So what were the results?

    First the 2010 Reds' Pitchers DER:

    Code:
    	        ERA	PDER10
    Travis Wood	2.65	0.801
    Bronson Arroyo	3.94	0.798
    Johnny Cueto	3.38	0.752
    CoCo Cordero	4.03	0.745
    Mike Leake	4.16	0.743
    Homer Bailey	5.51	0.716
    Aaron Harang	5.02	0.706
    Nick Masset	4.13	0.701
    Here is the chart comparing Arroyo and Harang over the years.

    Code:
    	ERA	PDER		ERA	PDER
    BA06	3.29	0.758	AH06	3.76	0.710
    BA07	4.23	0.718	AH07	3.73	0.741
    BA08	4.77	0.722	AH08	4.78	0.722
    BA09	3.94	0.772	AH09	4.21	0.703
    BA10	3.84	0.798	AH10	5.02	0.706
    BA-TOT		0.752	AH-TOT		0.718
    Here are the Reds Team DER from 2006-2010 as sort of a baseline to go on. Note how much improvement there has been in the past two years.


    Code:
    YEAR	TDER
    2006	0.725
    2007	0.723
    2008	0.721
    2009	0.759
    2010	0.753
    This, obviously is a very small sample, but maybe it suggests that pitchers that work faster get better fielding support behind them.

    In any case since I had it already had it on Excel I went ahead and posted it in case anyone was interested.

    If anyone was wondering why my DER differs from the DER you find on various websites it is because, in short, I think mine is better. Here is a typical definition of DER from The Hardball Times: Defense Efficiency Ratio.
    Code:
    The percent of times a batted ball is turned into an out by the teamsí fielders, not including home runs.
    That is all well and good up to a point, IMO. But it doesn't take into account things that a defense can do that can make a huge difference. Those types of things include outfield assists, caught stealing, pickoffs, double plays and cutting down runners on the basepaths. I just took the view that if a defense needed to get X amount of outs in a season, the team that took fewer batters to get those required outs was the better defense.

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  3. #2
    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' Pitchers DER

    Nice work.

    Having played baseball my entire life, mostly at 1B, CF and SS (I am 33 now and still play in a very competitive local adult league), I can vouch for the fact that fielders love to play for a pitcher who gets the work done quickly. Tom Browning was the best at that. He got the ball back from the catcher and was ready to toss it right back within seconds. Nothing worse than standing in the heat, waiting for a guy to kick the rubber, mess with the dirt, wave off 2-3 signs, etc...get on with it, yo. There is a strong correlation there for a reason.
    Founder and Ruling Elite of the Derrick Robinson Fan Club. Limited amount of memberships available.

  4. #3
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' Pitchers DER

    Code:
    Name	        ERA	PER
    Adam Wainwright	1.99	0.790
    Chris Carpenter	2.89	0.769
    Kyle McClellan	1.96	0.764
    Jaime Garcia	2.71	0.739
    Brad Penny	3.23	0.722
    B. Hawksworth	5.37	0.680
    		
    TEAM	        3.41	0.747
    And since there are so many Cardinal fans on the board. Here are how your pitchers stack up. Poor Blake Hawksworth. Nobody was playing any defense for him this year.

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    Re: Reds' Pitchers DER

    So any ball put into play, except for a HR, is counted? I dunno how much those numbers mean. Someone like Wainwright gets a ton of easy weak grounders in the infield, same with Carpenter. But Hawksworth got balls pounded all over the field against him.

    The overall quality of the pitcher seems to skew the PER number

  6. #5
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' Pitchers DER

    Quote Originally Posted by 10xWSChamps View Post
    So any ball put into play, except for a HR, is counted? I dunno how much those numbers mean. Someone like Wainwright gets a ton of easy weak grounders in the infield, same with Carpenter. But Hawksworth got balls pounded all over the field against him.

    The overall quality of the pitcher seems to skew the PER number
    As with any stat it isn't perfect. I just threw it out there in case anyone was interested.


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