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Thread: Question from an outsider

  1. #1
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    Question from an outsider

    Those who know the Reds:

    What's the ceiling on Travis Wood? Is he a #1 type starter in the future? He looks like he's been pretty darn good starting off.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Question from an outsider

    Probably a 2 or 3. I dont think he will ever be a dominating guy, but he certainly has enough stuff to have a very good major league career.

    Mid to low 3 ERA some years but probably never have one below 3 or above 4.

    Good contol, decent K rates, lots of fly balls, which likely leads to a higher than normal amount of homers given up.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    Just an opinion of an outsider who has seen Wood throw a few times. He's a small guy who can't really throw on a downward plain, so he'll really have to work hard to keep that velo consistently around 91 while locating his fastball. He'll need to really continue to develop that curve and throw that nasty change-up consistently for strikes. If he can develop a good sinker, it'd really be in his best interest playing in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

    To me, I don't really see a 2 or 3 but more likely a back-end of the rotation type pitcher. But who knows? I'm very far from an expert.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    Harper- I think that is a fair assessment. I don't think he has huge upside to sustain #1 or #2 numbers, but I do think his delivery and mental makeup make it possible that he will stick in the majors for a long career. I'm thinking something like Ted Lilly.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    It depends on what you're relating this to. I think he can be a #1-#3 starter depending on what team he's on. I never get the point of saying "oh is this guy a #1 type of starter" or not, because quite frankly if you went through the entire league and counted up all the players people make these arbitrary assessments of who's a #1 or not, there would be less pitchers people declare as #1's as there are TEAMS.

    So that shows the assessment is pretty inaccurate, because fans/experts can't really gauge WHAT a #1 guy actually is, since there needs to be as many #1 starters as teams (30). Based on that understanding, as said earlier if he has a low 3 ERA, that's enough to be a #1 starter easily in this league I'm betting, if you take the top 30 starters in the league to correspond with how many teams are out there.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    If I had to venture a guess he'll get to the point where he's part of the playoff rotation but not the first guy out. Probably a 3?

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    His ERA is going to be linked to his HR/FB ratio.

    as long as that BB rate stays around 2 and that K rate stays around 7 hes going to be pretty darn good.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    Travis Wood is not a true #1 starter in that he isn't over 6 ft tall and doesn't throw 95+. He does have a sneaky fastball though and good control with all of his pitches. He primarily pitches in the 89-91 range with his fastball but will get it up to 93 when he wants to. He will have a pretty good K rate and is pretty difficult to hit--.233 against him in Louisville, .175 in Cincinnati. He is primarily a flyball pitcher and will give up a few homeruns in GABP. He seems like a bulldog competitor on the mound and if we had a true #1 starter, I'd put him as a fringe #2 but definitely a #3.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    Cliff Lee doesnt have the makeup of a #1 starter either. Neither did Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    He's exceeded expectations the last 5 years, there's no evidence to show he can't be a #1.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    I would say his ceiling would be a Cliff Lee type starter, but it would be more likely he would follow a Mark Buehrle or Ted Lilly type career path. Either way, he appears to be very good.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    Quote Originally Posted by HARP3R View Post
    Just an opinion of an outsider who has seen Wood throw a few times. He's a small guy who can't really throw on a downward plain, so he'll really have to work hard to keep that velo consistently around 91 while locating his fastball. He'll need to really continue to develop that curve and throw that nasty change-up consistently for strikes. If he can develop a good sinker, it'd really be in his best interest playing in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

    To me, I don't really see a 2 or 3 but more likely a back-end of the rotation type pitcher. But who knows? I'm very far from an expert.
    I am so sick of people writing off shorter pitchers for no other reason than they are short. There are tons of 6' and below pitchers both past and present that are 6' and shorter. There are so many examples that it is silly to even name them.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    Quote Originally Posted by takealeake View Post
    It depends on what you're relating this to. I think he can be a #1-#3 starter depending on what team he's on. I never get the point of saying "oh is this guy a #1 type of starter" or not, because quite frankly if you went through the entire league and counted up all the players people make these arbitrary assessments of who's a #1 or not, there would be less pitchers people declare as #1's as there are TEAMS.

    So that shows the assessment is pretty inaccurate, because fans/experts can't really gauge WHAT a #1 guy actually is, since there needs to be as many #1 starters as teams (30). Based on that understanding, as said earlier if he has a low 3 ERA, that's enough to be a #1 starter easily in this league I'm betting, if you take the top 30 starters in the league to correspond with how many teams are out there.
    When people use the terminology relating to someone projecting as a #1 starter, it means he projects as a top of the rotation pitcher with dominant stuff. Basically the guy has a very good shot at being a potential Cy Young winner. Simply because a pitcher is placed as a team's #1 start or opening day starter does not mean he is an "Ace" or a Top of the Rotation pitcher. Aaron Harang is not an "ace", Zach Duke is not an "ace", nor are many other team's #1 starters.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    Estimates of his ceiling here are low in my opinion. His ceiling is certainly not to be the 4th best pitcher on any team.

    I see his ceiling is Tom Glavine territory or maybe Browning at his peak. He likely wouldn't start game 1 of the world series, but game 2 or 3. Right now, in my estimation he'd be in our top 3 to start the playoffs.

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    Re: Question from an outsider

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    Probably a 2 or 3. I dont think he will ever be a dominating guy, but he certainly has enough stuff to have a very good major league career.

    Mid to low 3 ERA some years but probably never have one below 3 or above 4.

    Good contol, decent K rates, lots of fly balls, which likely leads to a higher than normal amount of homers given up.
    4 HR in 50 innings or 1 HR per 12.5 innings with the big team
    9 HR in 100 Innings or 1 HR per 11.11 innings in AAA this season


    The rest of the Reds starters this season
    1 HR per 11.75 innings for Cueto
    1 HR per 8.88 innings for Arroyo
    1 HR per 8.00 innings for Homer
    1 HR per 7.94 innings for Leake
    1 HR per 6.67 innings for Harang
    1 HR per 6.00 innings for Volquez


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