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Thread: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

  1. #16
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I know everybody is clamoring to lock up Votto long term, but at this point, I'm not sure we'll get much of a discount there. However, I think Bruce is a prime candidate for us to buy out his arbitration. He has the potential to explode and leave us with a $10M arb value one of these years. I'd love to get some cost certainty around him -- something like: $1M, $2.5, $5.0, $8.5. Considering that he'll be entering FA in his prime and has plenty of opportunity to bag a huge contract, it could be real nice for him to get $17M guaranteed.
    I think Votto will be pretty fair with any extension. He seems like the type of guy that will be happy to take a decent raise. He said himself he believes in earning your way through the system.

    As far as Bruce, I agree wholeheartedly. I think a backloaded, 4-year, $20 million deal that escalates each year is a terrific gamble.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #17
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    What is the main difference between AAAA mashers and true big league talent? I say pitch recognition is the only difference. Does Jay have the natural ability to adjust and not have to decide too early if he needs to swing at pitches? The good to great players have a quick enough bat and good enough pitch recognition to wait that extra millisecond.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  4. #18
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    I know what I'm getting tired of and it's not waiting.
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    Are we talking about Jay Bruce or Edwin Encarnacion?
    Edwin is proof that guys don't always pan out. But we can't lump those two together because Bruce has some things going for him that EE never did.

    1. (less important) Bruce was the #1 prospect in baseball. EE was highly regarded, but never close to that level. Bruce smashed the minors to a greater degree and at a younger age.

    2. (more important) EE was a defensive atrocity. I made the argument that he was the worst starting 3B in the major leagues many times. Bruce is an excellent defender. The comparison of the bats holds water, the comparison of the two as complete players does not.

    EE got shipped out when he leveled off around a .800 OPS - that offense couldn't carry his defense. If Bruce follows that same trajectory and levels out around a .800 OPS, he'll be a pretty darn productive player. Not the star we hoped, but still pretty good. That's the difference. I would absolutely look to lock up Bruce through his arb years now.

  6. #20
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    I would like to believe it's wise to lock up bruce for 7 years, but I'm not sure. His arb cases shouldn't get too out of control at first.
    2015 Rotation: Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani

  7. #21
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    I'm as big a fan of Jay Bruce as anyone, but I think talk of locking him up longer term is very premature. I'd hope we see a wide open competition for outfield jobs next spring. I'd expect Jay to win the RF job that way but I don't see how it could be considered a certainty at this point. Can we be sure, for instance, that Bruce would outperform Heisey in RF in 2011 or a Heisey/Edmonds platoon? I hope he would and think he probably would, but it hardly seems certain enough to offer him a long term deal.

  8. #22
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I would like to believe it's wise to lock up bruce for 7 years, but I'm not sure. His arb cases shouldn't get too out of control at first.
    It's about protecting for the possibility that one great year could lose all your negotiating power. If they lock him up now, before he's had the breakout season, you guard against the possibility of going into Arbitration knowing he may ask for $8-10 mil and get it.

    By locking him up, you get a discounted rate... a rate that you are comfortable in knowing he should at least justify with his defense, and then possibly far exceed if/when he does breakout.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  9. #23
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    Bruce went 4-for-5 tonight with his 12th HR, a triple, and two singles. I hope this is the start of a long hot streak from Bruce. When he's on top of his game, he's capable of carrying an offense on his back. I would love to see him go on a power surge and reach 20+ homers for the third straight season.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  10. #24
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Bruce went 4-for-5 tonight with his 12th HR, a triple, and two singles. I hope this is the start of a long hot streak from Bruce. When he's on top of his game, he's capable of carrying an offense on his back. I would love to see him go on a power surge and reach 20+ homers for the third straight season.
    Score an assist, apparently, for Jimmy Ballgame jumpstarting him!

    Way to go, Jimm-may!
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Score an assist, apparently, for Jimmy Ballgame jumpstarting him!

    Way to go, Jimm-may!
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  12. #26
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    His slash stats jumped from .258/.326/.411 to .265/.331/.428, a 22 point jump in OPS. Not bad for a night in August.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #27
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    Jay Bruce is a Ballplayer. It would be foolish to give up on any kid with his talent. He would be my everyday RFer for the next 15 years if he remains healthy.

  14. #28
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    If he really is beginning to heat up for the stretch run, watch out... It would be just what this club needs to put a little room between itself and The Cards.
    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Score an assist, apparently, for Jimmy Ballgame jumpstarting him!

    Way to go, Jimm-may!
    I give a lot more credence to a return of pop from his injury. I don't know if what you say is genuine or in jest but I don't buy how Edmonds has helped him, especially if Vottos presence couldn't. Though he has been staying back better lately.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  16. #30
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Bruce...A Work in Progress at the Plate

    23 years old.

    Think about that before you criticize this kid.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain


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