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View Poll Results: What will be the Reds' odds after the deadly West Coast Trip?

Voters
29. You may not vote on this poll
  • 80.0+ Dream season gets dreamier.

    8 27.59%
  • 72-79 Nice trip for a change.

    12 41.38%
  • 69-71 Reds manage to tread water.

    6 20.69%
  • 61-68 Team's chances take a hit.

    1 3.45%
  • 60 or below Whoever said 'Go west, young man' was crazy.

    2 6.90%
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Thread: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

  1. #1
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    Here are three sites that try to estimate a team's chances of making the playoffs. Since typically West Coast trips are dreamcrushers, I thought I would post these now after the West
    Coast Trip just for fun.

    http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB/N...tral/Reds.html
    This is a cool site because you can pick your favorite team and it breaks it out and gives different odds for the different amount of victories. This means if you estimate what the Red's record for the rest of the season it will give the odds of them making the playoffs with that particular record.

    Code:
    METHOD	CIN-DV	CIN-WC	CIN-TOT
    COOL	58.4	16.8	75.4
    BP	48.3	15.7	64.0
    SCS	N/A	N/A	71.1
    AVE			70.2
    			
    METHOD	STL-DV	STL-WC	STL-TOT
    COOL	41.6	17.8	59.4
    BP 	51.6	14.5	66.1
    SCS	N/A	N/A	65.2
    AVE			63.6
    Averaging the three Cincinnati's chances stand at 71.1. Any guesses as to what it will be when they return home?

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  3. #2
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    My opinion is that they may be hitting the west coast at just the right time.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  4. #3
    Rojo Johnson #99
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    My opinion is that they may be hitting the west coast at just the right time.
    Certainly a better team than in past seasons. I consider this trip relatively benign. If a stop in San Diego was included in this swing instead of Arizona (where the Reds had a nice sweep at the beginning of last season), I would be concerned.

  5. #4
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    As a Card fan, I probably shouldn't say this...but if the Reds go .500 or better on this trip, I'm thinking there will be later October baseball in Cincy.

  6. #5
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    I think this team will surprise you. They have done it all year. Not the Reds of the last few years.

  7. #6
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    100%

  8. #7
    The Buckeye Bomber
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    Considering that the Cardinals have lost three straight against NL Central teams (not surprised) I think the Reds come back from the coast in good shape provided they don't melt down completely out there.

    I went with the second option.
    I hate the Cardinals. I hate the Cubs.
    Let's. Go. Reds.
    "Per Aspera Ad Astra"

  9. #8
    Firin Away Jr's Boy's Avatar
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    We've won just 1 game.Place a poll 4 games in.

  10. #9
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    Quote Originally Posted by ThornWithin81 View Post
    Considering that the Cardinals have lost three straight against NL Central teams (not surprised) I think the Reds come back from the coast in good shape provided they don't melt down completely out there.

    I went with the second option.
    This has been the most frustrating Cardinals team I have seen in a decade. Another game where the defense lets the pitching down. Another game where 3 unearned runs cross the plate.

  11. #10
    Reds Fan 4 life!!!!!
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    This has been the most frustrating Cardinals team I have seen in a decade. Another game where the defense lets the pitching down. Another game where 3 unearned runs cross the plate.
    Yeah... Thank you Felipe Lopez. Why do you think he was run out of town on a rail.
    "Ahh, Jesus, I like him very much, but He no help with curveball." - Serrano. "Are you trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?" - Harris in Major League (1989)

  12. #11
    1st pick 2022 B.B. draft George Foster's Avatar
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    a 5-4 road trip would be a GREAT road trip. I don't want to face the Giants when they have been losing and coming home. Law of averages. Lets hope they win some games before the Reds come to town. 2 out of 3 win in St. Louis sounds great to me.
    Last edited by George Foster; 08-18-2010 at 01:40 AM.
    Not this year...maybe a Wild Card

  13. #12
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    Arizona Update: After the first three games all numbers trending in the right direction.

    Code:
    SITE	B4 WCT	DBACKS	DODGERS	GIANTS
    COOL	75.4	85.7		
    BP	64.0	81.7		
    SCS	71.1	86.9		
    				
    AVE	70.2	84.8

  14. #13
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    now it's on to LA where we haven't won since 2005. I expect a diffrent outcome this time around.

  15. #14
    The Smiling Side AintlifeGrande's Avatar
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    We take the series in Tinseltown I really believe the division is our's to lose.

    ROLL TIDE ROLL!!

  16. #15
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.

    Reds take the series in Los Angeles 2 games to 1 and the Cardinals match them by taking 2 out of 3 against San Francisco. Less games on the schedule left so the percentages eek up a bit. A series win in the Bay Area would cap one sweet West Coast trip.

    Code:
    SITE	B4WCT	DBACKS	DODGERS	GIANTS
    COOL	75.4	85.7	85.7	
    BP	64.0	81.7	84.0	
    SCS	71.1	86.9	89.0	
    				
    AVE	70.2	84.8	86.2


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