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View Poll Results: Does Homer have TOR Stuff?

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  • Yes

    14 66.67%
  • No

    3 14.29%
  • Not sure

    4 19.05%
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Thread: Homer Bailey poll

  1. #1
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    After reading the thread about who to start assuming the Reds make the playoffs and seeing quite a few people suggesting Homer at the top or near it I just couldn't believe what I was hearing. I said to myself, hey self maybe your wrong maybe his stuff is TOR material. So let's just put this baby to rest once and for all. Is Homer a TOR guy or is he a BOR guy who just happened to have improved enough that he can give the mirage of a TOR guy against inferior competition.

    During the beginning of 2009 (when he improved) until present Homers line reads like so:

    177 IP, 176 Hits, 137 K's, 19 HR's and 75 Walks, 4.53 ERA, 1.418 WHIP, xFIP ERA 4.35

    What about those #'s suggests he is anything close to a TOR arm? If his stuff is TOR why isn't he producing TOR results? He's not even close, IMO he's a BOR arm who is defense dependant to keep his ERA down. Which there is nothing wrong with but why do people believe he has TOR stuff?

    I'm willing to be wrong as I'm one who believes results aren't everything but not willing to sit and be told he's one thing when he's not showing it in any way, shape or form. Someone please explain why I'm wrong. Because what I'm seeing is a #4 on a good defensive team and an eventual minor leaguer on a team with a poor defense.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 08-22-2010 at 01:49 PM.
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  3. #2
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    For me, it's just a gut instinct that he'll end up as a number 1. I've seen him struggle when he tries to overthrow. I've seen him struggle during the early chillier months too. But since about the middle of last season, I've seen consistent improvement. He's not overthrowing anymore, and when he gets hit, he settles back down and digs in. Yeah, he struggled early this year, but I'm convinced he's simply not a cool weather pitcher. During those early season games, he struggled early in the game and then steadily got better as the game wore on. I think he is just slow to warm up, even more so on chillier days. IMO this is something the coaching staff needs to work on with him...more cardio on those days to get his blood pumping prior to a start. Sure, he might not last as long in the game, but he won't get shelled right off the bat either. But like I said, I've got no 'evidence', just a gut feeling.
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  4. #3
    Member GOYA's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    Homer is not a finished product. He still has maturing to do. He certainly wasn't a finished product at the beginning of 2009.

  5. #4
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    Homer is not a finished product. He still has maturing to do. He certainly wasn't a finished product at the beginning of 2009.
    Ok didn't mean to imply he was, still I am not seeing TOR stuff from him.
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  6. #5
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Ok didn't mean to imply he was, still I am not seeing TOR stuff from him.
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  7. #6
    Lets Go 'Bird' Hunting The Voice of IH's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    can someone please send me a link that explains TOR and BOR, I hear it all the time used. and I am assuming that TOR is REALLY GOOD, but can someone give me something to read on it, I can't find anything.
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  8. #7
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    TOR -Top of Rotation a #1
    BOR - Back of rotation a 4 or 5

  9. #8
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Voice of IH View Post
    can someone please send me a link that explains TOR and BOR, I hear it all the time used. and I am assuming that TOR is REALLY GOOD, but can someone give me something to read on it, I can't find anything.
    Hah! For the longest time, I thought TOR meant the guy came from Toronto, or that Toronto has such a great staff that if he could pitch for Toronto that made him really, really good.

    Seriously, there have been all kinds of esoteric arguments about what makes a guy worthy of his slot in the rotation.

    I don't really go in for it, because over the course of a season, things tend to get jumbled up anyway.

    I guess it's just another way of saying a guy is or isn't worthy of not having his starts skipped during the season.
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  10. #9
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    I think it's premature to say that he came of age in 2009, or has yet.

    That's why many think he can be a TOR starter.

    Cueto has similar numbers up until this year.
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  11. #10
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    Lets look at his last 9 starts of last year:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ching_gamelogs

    6-3, 1.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 53 K, 24BB, 2 HR, .243 OBA

    He was as close to dominating down the stretch last year as Cincinnati has ever had. I'd challenge anyone to find a stretch where one of our starting pitchers has looked that impressive. I'd say maybe Cueto this year; and people aren't calling him overrated despite the way he got hit last night.

    He had a rough start to the year, but his last 4 starts not counting the one when he got hurt in Cleveland suggest he might be turning the corner. More of the same, dominating performances.

    The pedigree has always been there. When he goes out and has an overpowering performance, he's doing what scouts always said he'd do. I think that's reason for the excitement in the fan base. We hear this often enough with other guys, but "He's only 24".

    In terms of stuff that I can see, his stuff is as good as anyone we have. I've also heard guys like Albert Pujols and Dan Uggla say he's going to be a special pitcher as long as he stays healthy.

    I think he's much more likely to be a true TOR starter despite his early struggles under inept management then Mike Leake for instance.
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  12. #11
    Lets Go 'Bird' Hunting The Voice of IH's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    TOR -Top of Rotation a #1
    BOR - Back of rotation a 4 or 5
    lol, that makes so much since that I did not think of it
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  13. #12
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    Past performance is not a perfect predictor of future results, it's a starting point. And when you combine Bailey's past performance with his age and scouting assessments, there is great potential there. I don't know of anybody who is asserting with certitude that Homer is going to be a #1 or #2 guy and certainly not currently one. But it's a reasonable possibility in the future.

    Would you mind citing some examples of the claims against which you're arguing? I suspect it's a bit of a strawman -- certainly from the perspective of the general understanding. As for his stuff, 95 mph heat and a hammer curve aren't exactly BOR material. Whether or not he can consistently get TOR results with that stuff is a different question.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-22-2010 at 02:05 PM.
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  14. #13
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I think it's premature to say that he came of age in 2009, or has yet.

    That's why many think he can be a TOR starter.

    Cueto has similar numbers up until this year.
    There fixed the "came of age" quote.

    Cueto is debatable but he just seems to do better against better competition than Homer does for the most part, Cueto gets fair results whenever he's not his own worst enemy with mechanics despite the competition. I'm not sure where Cueto will end up in a rotation probably as a #3.

    Homer is often lumped in with Volquez where stuff is concerned. Volquez has shown TOR stuff at times with 206 K's in 196 IP also only 167 hits that season. Basically IMO good stuff equals stuff that misses bats completely (good K/9) and/or induces poor swings leading to low hits/9. If your not showing either ever then how good is your stuff really?
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  15. #14
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990 View Post
    Lets look at his last 9 starts of last year:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ching_gamelogs

    6-3, 1.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 53 K, 24BB, 2 HR, .243 OBA

    He was as close to dominating down the stretch last year as Cincinnati has ever had. I'd challenge anyone to find a stretch where one of our starting pitchers has looked that impressive. I'd say maybe Cueto this year; and people aren't calling him overrated despite the way he got hit last night.

    He had a rough start to the year, but his last 4 starts not counting the one when he got hurt in Cleveland suggest he might be turning the corner. More of the same, dominating performances.

    The pedigree has always been there. When he goes out and has an overpowering performance, he's doing what scouts always said he'd do. I think that's reason for the excitement in the fan base. We hear this often enough with other guys, but "He's only 24".

    In terms of stuff that I can see, his stuff is as good as anyone we have. I've also heard guys like Albert Pujols and Dan Uggla say he's going to be a special pitcher as long as he stays healthy.

    I think he's much more likely to be a true TOR starter despite his early struggles under inept management then Mike Leake for instance.
    Even then his H/9 and K/9 (and his BB/9) were suggesting his results weren't a result of overpowering stuff, only the ERA is a great number. Defense and poor opposition (4 games vs. the Pirates as an example) could easily explain that stretch.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  16. #15
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey, Overrated?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990 View Post
    Lets look at his last 9 starts of last year:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ching_gamelogs

    6-3, 1.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 53 K, 24BB, 2 HR, .243 OBA

    He was as close to dominating down the stretch last year as Cincinnati has ever had. I'd challenge anyone to find a stretch where one of our starting pitchers has looked that impressive. I'd say maybe Cueto this year; and people aren't calling him overrated despite the way he got hit last night.
    Check out Arroyo down the stretch last year.


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