Trading Quantity for Quality

[BoilerBC11]

Don't get me wrong, I'm having a blast following this years team, but I can't help but be excited for this offseason and what all moves we are going to make to make this success sustainable.

Currently we are in a position where we have A LOT of solid players, however we don't have a lot of positions that will need filled. So I guess the question is, whats better to have, great depth, or great players?

Here are our players for next year that I feel deserve starting:

C- Hernandez
Hanigan
Mesoraco

1B- Votto (Best in the Business)
Yonder

2B- Phillips (Best in the Business)
Valaika

SS- Cozart
Janish

3B- Rolen (Best in the Business, but is getting old)
Fransisco

RF- Bruce (Great Potential)

CF- Stubbs

LF- Heisey
Frazier

SP- Cueto (Solid 2)
SP- Volquez ( Solid 2)
SP- Arroyo (Solid 3 and good veteran presence)
SP- Bailey (Solid 3)
SP- Leake (3)
SP- Wood (3)
SP- Chapman (1-4?)

In my opinion, we need to cash in on this talent and make a few upgrades. Because I value quality over quantity.

Here are some trades I would consider:

Leake + Bailey + Frazier for Zach Grienke or Felix Hernandez

Yonder + Cozart + Prospect for Jose Reyes

What are some trades you would make? Or would you rather stand tight and keep our outstanding depth?

[brm7675]

I don't trade Leake and i don't want Reyes...

Don't get me wrong, I'm having a blast following this years team, but I can't help but be excited for this offseason and what all moves we are going to make to make this success sustainable.

Currently we are in a position where we have A LOT of solid players, however we don't have a lot of positions that will need filled. So I guess the question is, whats better to have, great depth, or great players?

Here are our players for next year that I feel deserve starting:

C- Hernandez
Hanigan
Mesoraco

1B- Votto (Best in the Business)
Yonder

2B- Phillips (Best in the Business)
Valaika

SS- Cozart
Janish

3B- Rolen (Best in the Business, but is getting old)
Fransisco

RF- Bruce (Great Potential)

CF- Stubbs

LF- Heisey
Frazier

SP- Cueto (Solid 2)
SP- Volquez ( Solid 2)
SP- Arroyo (Solid 3 and good veteran presence)
SP- Bailey (Solid 3)
SP- Leake (3)
SP- Wood (3)
SP- Chapman (1-4?)

In my opinion, we need to cash in on this talent and make a few upgrades. Because I value quality over quantity.

Here are some trades I would consider:

Leake + Bailey + Frazier for Zach Grienke or Felix Hernandez

Yonder + Cozart + Prospect for Jose Reyes

What are some trades you would make? Or would you rather stand tight and keep our outstanding depth?

[ThornWithin81]

I don't think our depth is as outstanding as you represent it being.

Just IMO.

[scott91575]

While young players for a proven vets sounds great, this team is going to be up against it's salary limit again next year.

If Arroyo's option is picked up look for this team to have the salary increase by over $10 million. With this season and hopefully a bump in season tickets next year they can probably handle that bump, but anything more is asking a lot.

Votto, Bruce, and Cueto are all arbitration eligible at the end of this year. Those 3 will eat up more than Harang's salary (they will end up costing over $20 million vs. next to nothing right now). Then in 2012 they will get another bump, and another round of young players hit arbitration. Those will eat into the Cordero and Arroyo money.

The Reds simply do not have the ability to take on a $10+ million player over any extended period if they plan on keeping the young, proven talent in house. The best hope is to have the young, unproven talent play at a high level while they sign the young, proven talent to long term deals.

BTW...I would in no way trade for Reyes. He is only signed through next year, and is an injury risk. Felix Hernandez's has HUGE contract numbers in 2012 through 2014, and I don't see the Mariners trading him at this point anyway. Greinke, maybe. Yet I am not sure KC is looking to deal him, and I would be more inclined to hope Leake and/or Bailey can pitch at the same level while getting paid a lot less.

[brm7675]

Votto will get a nice jump in pay, Cueto a decent one, but given the overall poor numbers for Bruce, I don't see him getting a huge raise. I also see our payroll moving up into the mid 90's next season.

While young players for a proven vets sounds great, this team is going to be up against it's salary limit again next year.

If Arroyo's option is picked up look for this team to have the salary increase by over $10 million. With this season and hopefully a bump in season tickets next year they can probably handle that bump, but anything more is asking a lot.

Votto, Bruce, and Cueto are all arbitration eligible at the end of this year. Those 3 will eat up more than Harang's salary (they will end up costing over $20 million vs. next to nothing right now). Then in 2012 they will get another bump, and another round of young players hit arbitration. Those will eat into the Cordero and Arroyo money.

The Reds simply do not have the ability to take on a $10+ million player over any extended period if they plan on keeping the young, proven talent in house. The best hope is to have the young, unproven talent play at a high level while they sign the young, proven talent to long term deals.

BTW...I would in no way trade for Reyes. He is only signed through next year, and is an injury risk. Felix Hernandez's has HUGE contract numbers in 2012 through 2014, and I don't see the Mariners trading him at this point anyway. Greinke, maybe. Yet I am not sure KC is looking to deal him, and I would be more inclined to hope Leake and/or Bailey can pitch at the same level while getting paid a lot less.

[1990REDS]

Votto will get a nice jump in pay, Cueto a decent one, but given the overall poor numbers for Bruce, I don't see him getting a huge raise. I also see our payroll moving up into the mid 90's next season.

So you think ownership is going to add roughly 25 mill to payroll next year? I think were in like the 71 mill range this year. I dont see that happening.

[gedred69]

While young players for a proven vets sounds great, this team is going to be up against it's salary limit again next year.

If Arroyo's option is picked up look for this team to have the salary increase by over $10 million. With this season and hopefully a bump in season tickets next year they can probably handle that bump, but anything more is asking a lot.

Votto, Bruce, and Cueto are all arbitration eligible at the end of this year. Those 3 will eat up more than Harang's salary (they will end up costing over $20 million vs. next to nothing right now). Then in 2012 they will get another bump, and another round of young players hit arbitration. Those will eat into the Cordero and Arroyo money.

The Reds simply do not have the ability to take on a $10+ million player over any extended period if they plan on keeping the young, proven talent in house. The best hope is to have the young, unproven talent play at a high level while they sign the young, proven talent to long term deals.

BTW...I would in no way trade for Reyes. He is only signed through next year, and is an injury risk. Felix Hernandez's has HUGE contract numbers in 2012 through 2014, and I don't see the Mariners trading him at this point anyway. Greinke, maybe. Yet I am not sure KC is looking to deal him, and I would be more inclined to hope Leake and/or Bailey can pitch at the same level while getting paid a lot less.

Good post. The part about hope to have the young talent play at a high level is the Minnesota model that has worked very, very well.

[scott91575]

Votto will get a nice jump in pay, Cueto a decent one, but given the overall poor numbers for Bruce, I don't see him getting a huge raise. I also see our payroll moving up into the mid 90's next season.

Bruce will still get over $2 million. Hermida got over $3 million, and he sucks worse than Bruce (although it was not Hermida's first venture into arbitration). BJ Upton got $3 million after a year worse than Bruce, but he did have better previous years.

Cueto should easily get over $3 and probably in the $4 million dollar range.

Votto is going to be over $10 million.

So perhaps my $20 million was high, yet it should be over $16 million. I fully expect the Reds to try and deal outside of arbitration, but much of that will be keeping those players salaries from escalating too much in their 2nd and 3rd time through arbitration, and hopefully into free agency (meaning 4+ year deal). So everything is just a guesstimate anyway.

Yet my point still stands....this team will not be looking to add payroll next year unless it's a trade deadline deal and the other teams kicks in some cash.

I also think $90 million is too high. More in the $80 million range which they are going to be right in that neighborhood if Arroyo's option is picked up.

edit: missed Volquez, so that $20 is closer to the actual number.

[scott91575]

So you think ownership is going to add roughly 25 mill to payroll next year? I think were in like the 71 mill range this year. I dont see that happening.

I think they are just over $68 this year. I think $80 million will be the ballpark (see above post).

[1990REDS]

I think they are just over $68 this year. I think $80 million will be the ballpark (see above post).

ya i was thinking maybe in the 75 to 80 mill range as well. with 80 being the absolute cieling.

[BoilerBC11]

ya i was thinking maybe in the 75 to 80 mill range as well. with 80 being the absolute cieling.

I hope our ownership can see how close this team is to competing for a WS, and goes out and spends some money. The Reds have to keep this buzz going so that we can continue to put butts in the seats.

We have the 4th largest TV and Radio audiences, so if we can keep putting people in the stands, we should be able to afford a payroll up around 90 million.

[1990REDS]

I hope our ownership can see how close this team is to competing for a WS, and goes out and spends some money. The Reds have to keep this buzz going so that we can continue to put butts in the seats.

We have the 4th largest TV and Radio audiences, so if we can keep putting people in the stands, we should be able to afford a payroll up around 90 million.

dont get me wrong, i would love to be up in that range. I just dont think ive ever heard of a team outside of newyork or boston adding 20 mill+ in payroll over a offseason.

[757690]

Bruce will still get over $2 million. Hermida got over $3 million, and he sucks worse than Bruce (although it was not Hermida's first venture into arbitration). BJ Upton got $3 million after a year worse than Bruce, but he did have better previous years.

Cueto should easily get over $3 and probably in the $4 million dollar range.

Votto is going to be over $10 million.

So perhaps my $20 million was high, yet it should be over $16 million. I fully expect the Reds to try and deal outside of arbitration, but much of that will be keeping those players salaries from escalating too much in their 2nd and 3rd time through arbitration, and hopefully into free agency (meaning 4+ year deal). So everything is just a guesstimate anyway.

Yet my point still stands....this team will not be looking to add payroll next year unless it's a trade deadline deal and the other teams kicks in some cash.

I also think $90 million is too high. More in the $80 million range which they are going to be right in that neighborhood if Arroyo's option is picked up.

edit: missed Volquez, so that $20 is closer to the actual number.

If the Reds roster stays the same, and the arbitration eligible players get $16M total in the offseason, the Reds will still have at least $10M to spend on improvements, if the payroll stays at $76M which is where it is at this season.

I suggest this website to find all the facts about the Reds payroll and individual players contracts:

Cot's Baseball Contracts

BTW, no way Votto gets over $7M next season. In fact, he probably will get less, especially if he signs some sort of long term, backloaded deal, which is very likely.

[scott91575]

If the Reds roster stays the same, and the arbitration eligible players get $16M total in the offseason, the Reds will still have at least $10M to spend on improvements, if the payroll stays at $76M which is where it is at this season.

I suggest this website to find all the facts about the Reds payroll and individual players contracts:

Cot's Baseball Contracts

BTW, no way Votto gets over $7M next season. In fact, he probably will get less, especially if he signs some sort of long term, backloaded deal, which is very likely.

If Votto actually wins the MVP, he will be similar to Ryan Howard in 2008. He got $10 million in his first arbitration year. If he does sign a back loaded deal, great. Yet right now I am not making those assumptions. I am going by past arbitration cases.

As for that chart, that next year is assuming no option is picked up. It also doesn't include min salary players that will certainly be there. That is another 4 or 5 million. I also did not include all the arbitration players (and neither does that chart). It could easily be $20 million for all the arbitration players. If you pick up Arroyo's option and Hernandez's option, that is another 14+ million. I, like that chart, am assuming Cabrera is bought out. So $20+14+5+42.7 (from the chart) is 81.7 million. No, they do not have $10 million to play with to match this years salary. The 2011 year is making tons of assumptions (essentially no option picked up), and does not include any of the min salaries or arbitration salaries.

Now, if you say they shouldn't sign Arroyo and Hernandez, then you can say they have some money to play with. Yet that is only for 2011. The salaries will escalate again in 2012 and eat up much that money. Then more guys hit arbitration, and that cuts into Cordero's money that is freed up (not sure if Phillips option will be picked up).

It's a never ending story, but in essence if you keep Arroyo and Hernandez then salary increases next year for essentially the same team (Cabrera, Harang, etc. gone, but nothing major). Then in 2012 it will free up some, but once again, the continued escalation will make it very similar.

In the end, if the Reds add a $10+ million guy for any length of time they will be jumping the team payroll a fair amount. On top of all that, those are just hope trades. I am not sure anyone would actually make them. So while they may sound great and could maybe be squeezed into the salary, it doesn't mean they are a real possibility. Although there is no effing way the Reds take on Felix's contract. Greinke, maybe.

[MikeThierry]

I'm just wondering, do the Reds receive any money in revenue sharing? If so, how much do you think they get?