2011 Carolina Mudcats

[JaxRed]

I'm with Muddie. So the 2 guys who have watched Perez think he will be back in AA.

[Brutus]

I'm with Muddie. So the 2 guys who have watched Perez think he will be back in AA.

It's not about what you think, I think or muddie thinks. It's about what the club thinks. And the crux of my position doesn't rely on whether or not Perez is ready, but whether or not the club intends to fast track him.

[alexad]

This is awesome info. Thanks. I need to start paying more attention to the lower levels of this organization.

[mdccclxix]

I thought I'd bump this thread and dust if off for the purposes of the regular season as well. camisadelgolf did a great job, per usual, of putting together some scenarios for this year's Mudcats. It's worth checking back out.

To say the least, the Mudcats have disappointed, especially from the mound. I'm not going to do a full review, but I did want to highlight a few of the holes the Mudcats have, by the numbers, and anticipate when some more of camisadel's predictions will come true.

Coddington: .216 / .283 / .261 in just over 100 pa's
McMurray: .179 / .236 / .209 in 73 pa's

This catching tandem is really struggling at the plate, but has done a decent job of holding runners (35%). It will be interesting to see the pace Grandal starts to move through the ranks, as the Mudcats could use a lift.

[mdccclxix]

In LF the Mudcats are running David Cook out and he's keeping the spot warm by going .254 / .374 / .373. At 29 years old, you have to root for the guy, but I'm wondering if the Reds think Fellhauer might be ready to try the next level. He's hitting .322 / .384 / .435 in Bakersfield, and not a young guy guy himself either at 23. I'm intrigued by his bounce back year so far.

[camisadelgolf]

It's amazing how bad Carolina has been this year. The Mudcats are easily the oldest team in the league, and despite having the advantage of experience, they're still not getting things done. The offense has been bad, which is no surprise when you consider they've been counting on little-to-zero production from catcher, shortstop, and right field on a daily basis. That's also not to mention all the time that Neftali Soto missed. But at least their offense isn't the worst. The pitching, however, is a completely different story. Check out this line:

W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	WP	BF	WHIP 	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
11	32	0.256	6.58	147	44	28	2	340.7	430	274	249	41	171	7	263	32	13	1617	1.764	11.4	1.1	4.5	6.9	1.54

You see how terrible that is? That has accounted for 71% of the Mudcats' pitching this year.

Here is the 29% of pitching that has done well (or at least reasonably well):
Jose Arredondo is in Cincinnati following his rehab assignment.
Daryl Thompson, Nick Christiani, and Matt Klinker are all in Louisville.
Ruben Medina is in Bakersfield for some strange reason.
Jason Braun is in Dayton after he pitched just one game when Carolina was shorthanded.
Brad Boxberger has been amazing.

In other words, unless you count the recently-signed Tim Hamulack, the only bright spot on the pitching staff is Brad Boxberger. Everyone is else is terrible or playing for a different team right now. Wow.

[mdccclxix]

You have to think it got the attention of the FO, hence the pitcher's draft this year. When you look at A and A+, there really isn't that much help for AA this year...or I hate to say even next. Perhaps we'll see some of the ERA's in the 4's in Bakersfield drop into the 3's in AA. There are some intriguing K rates in A+, but lot's of guys giving up high WHIP.

[mdccclxix]

It does look like some more arms could move up from Bakersfield and get filled in from the staff in Dayton. There's that. Keep the chain moving.

[muddie]

In other words, unless you count the recently-signed Tim Hamulack, the only bright spot on the pitching staff is Brad Boxberger. Everyone is else is terrible or playing for a different team right now. Wow.

I believe the exception to this statement is Travis Webb. Webb has been a pretty reliable arm over the past six weeks or so. He's been very good since coming out of the rotation.

[billy bob]

Oh yes there are some good arms in low A and high A that is better than what you now have in AA that could/would help AA but for some reason guys have not been moved. I think over the next couple days that will change... even starting today we will see some movement happening like Gerson and Lotzkar.

[camisadelgolf]

I believe the exception to this statement is Travis Webb. Webb has been a pretty reliable arm over the past six weeks or so. He's been very good since coming out of the rotation.

That's a fair point, but his overall numbers are still bad. It's still pathetic when he, James Avery, and Kyle McCulloch are the second-to-fourth best pitchers on the squad. But hey, at least Klinker's coming back.

[muddie]

Matt Klinker has posted that he is starting tomorrow night. This will mean Tabor will miss his turn and may very well be headed back to the pen.

[bowles8]

Any inkling on when Grandal may be promoted to Carolina?

[muddie]

I'm going to be very interested in seeing what moves lie ahead that are geared toward making this team competitive enough for a second half run. As a fan that pulls for this team win or lose, I will be the first to say this team is a wreck. I honestly don't know that there are enough buttons to push and switches to pulll to make this team competitive this year.

Klinker pitched a pretty solid five innings last night and lost 2-0 in a rain shortened evening. The team only managed four hits, one of them being his. Barring wholesale changes, which I don't see happening, I can't see Carolina being much different the second half.

[camisadelgolf]

The Mudcats have been a disaster this year, and supposedly, improving them has been a priority. Are the Reds actually doing so? Well, if you ask me, the lineup is actually starting to look somewhat decent.
CF Berry (free agent)
2B Rodriguez (promotion)
DH Costanzo
1B Soto (back from the dl)
C Grandal (promotion)
LF Puckett
RF Cook
3B Campbell (promotion)
SS Rojas

The bench isn't bad at all with James Skelton (free agent), Jose Castro, Denis Phipps, and Felix Perez available. However, the rotation looks mediocre at best despite being a big a step up from when it featured Dallas Buck and Travis Webb.
#1 Matt Klinker (demotion)
#2 James Avery
#3 Tim Gustafson (free agent)
#4 Pedro Villarreal (promotion)
#5 Kyle McCulloch (trade)

The bullpen took a big hit when Nick Christiani got promoted, but Webb's move to the bullpen has been a success, Donnie Joseph has bounced back nicely, and Tim Hamulack is off to a good start. Now if only they could get another right-hander to start producing . . .

CL Brad Boxberger
RHP James Adkins (free agent)
RHP Justin Freeman
RHP Jason Braun (temporary filler)
LHP Donnie Joseph
LHP Tim Hamulack (free agent)
LHP Travis Webb

The good news for the bullpen--and possibly the rotation--is that Travis Wood and Aroldis Chapman are back in Louisville, so we could see two guys get demoted. The leading candidates are Brandon Hynick, Steven Jackson, and Chris Mobley, who have all spent time in AA earlier this year. That means Jason Braun will be sent back down to Dayton or Arizona, but who else is going? Will we see someone released this week?

Anyway, to sum that up, I'd say the team looks improved in every area. Is it enough to keep them competitive in the second half? I have my doubts, but I don't see any way things could be as bad as they were in the first half.

Another thing to keep in mind is that we could see Matt Fairel and Jordan Hotchkiss back later this year, which could be a big boost for the pitching staff. We could also see some worthwhile promotions from Bakersfield from the likes of Clay Shunick, Mark Serrano, and Mace Thurman. In other words, there is some hope for optimism in Zebulon.