Even if you're pessimistic about the Bats in 2011--and I don't know why you would be--it still looks like a club that should be approximately as good as they are this year. It's a very talented crop of talent, and I'm sure they'll win the division title.
Projected starting lineup:
CF Dave Sappelt
SS Kris Negron
1B Yonder Alonso
3B Todd Frazier
RF Danny Dorn
C Devin Mesoraco
LF Juan Francisco
2B Jake Kahaulelio
C Chris Denove/Corky Miller
OF Denis Phipps/Sean Henry
UT Mike Griffin
UT Wilkin Castillo
Enerio Del Rosario
Daniel Ray Herrera
Catcher: If the Reds re-sign Ramon Hernandez, Devin Mesoraco will start in Louisville. It could be interesting to see if the Reds keep Corky Miller around with the worse performer starting for the Bats.
First base: This is a no-brainer; Joey Votto is blocking Yonder Alonso. If Alonso is traded in the off-season, look for Danny Dorn to become the primary first baseman.
Second base: Will Chris Valaika start 2011 in Cincinnati? If so, it paves the way for Jake Kahaulelio.
Third base: Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco will likely split time at third base and left field. However, I could see Juan Francisco taking the role of a left-handed bat off the bench for the Reds. If that happens, Todd Frazier might be the third baseman with a free agent (or Sean Henry) replacing him in the outfield
Shortstop: I'd be surprised if Zack Cozart is given the job in Cincinnati, but he doesn't have much left to prove in the minors. Where he ends up will probably determine where Kris Negron ends up.
Outfield: Whoever isn't playing third between Francisco and Frazier, the other will probably take over left field. One of them making the Reds out of spring training would likely result in a Luis Terrero-type free agent (possibly Wladimir Balentien or Sean Henry?) being the replacement. If Dave Sappelt is called up, that could mean Felix Perez gets the call from Carolina. Danny Dorn may get a lot of playing time in the outfield as long as Yonder Alonso is in the organization. To back up the outfielders, there are plenty of free-agents-to-be in the organization who could be retained, but I think there's a good shot they'll look outside the organization.
Starting rotation: It may be odd to see me list Leake in the minor leagues, but with Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez not having options, you know they'll be with the big club. Johnny Cueto is arguably the Reds' best starter when he's on. How do you not pick up Bronson Arroyo's option? And I think Travis Wood, who is conveniently left-handed, has passed up Mike Leake on the depth chart. Maybe we'll see Leake become a long reliever with some combination of Enerio Del Rosario, Daniel Ray Herrera, Carlos Fisher, Jordan Smith, and Jose Arredondo being optioned.
Bullpen: There are TONS of left-handers that belong here. Some of them may need to go to AA or another organization. Otherwise, you'd be stuck with Phil Valiquette, Ben Jukich, Joe Krebs, Lee Tabor, Daniel Ray Herrera, and Jeremy Horst all in the same bullpen. To fill the other roles, I'm sure the Reds will go after a free agent or two.