The Next 10 Games (Mil/StL/Col)

[membengal]

They are not season-defining, this season has already been defined by the fun of a pennant chase and falling in love with a baseball team anew.

But the next 10 games are absolutely going to help define the shape of the pennant chase for Cincinnati. It is unquestionably as dangerous a 10-game stretch as the one they just had out west in my mind.

First up, three at home against old pennant race nemisis Milwaukee. At least, I still have bad flashbacks to the last three games up there in 1999. While the 2010 Brewers are deeply flawed in terms of starting pitching, we also draw Gallardo in one of the three games, Tuesday against Harang. And Milwaukee can still hit. Man, can they hit. There are no guarantees against the Brewers, far from it. Add in any temptations to look ahead to next weekend, and the Reds will need to be extra-careful the next three.

The Reds would be doing well to get 2 of the next 3.


Off-day on Thursday.


Then, obviously, the latest OK Corral thingy with StL in StL. They've, per usual, played with their staff to bring all their hammers against the Reds. And StL will clearly be pushing hard for the sweep, they almost have to get all three at this point.

At this point, I would be fairly happy if the Reds find a way to get 1 of those 3.

Finally, and this is actually the series that has me most concerned, four games in Colorado. Against a Rockies team belatedly catching fire. Except, for Colorado, it might not be belated. Memories of how fiery hot they got a few Septembers ago in their unlikely run to the playoffs are still fresh out there, and they have recently crawled to the edge of the wild card race. Add in how hot Carlos Gonzalez has been (he is on the edge of the triple crown chase himself and a potenital legit third MVP candidate in the NL) and how difficult it can be for teams coming into Colorado on occasion, and that is four that really bother me at this juncture.

If the Reds can split that series, I would be pleased.

That makes my baseline for the next 10 days worth of games a hoped for 5-5 record. If they better that, in my opinion, this division is ours. If they fall below that mark, we look up 10 days from now and StL is potentially a closer object than it would appear in the Reds' rear view mirror.

Come up .500 and I think it is close to status quo for Cincy with regard to where they are now in nice position for the last two and a half weeks.

I bet all the Chapman-coming-up rumors and Harang into rotation and mothballing EV stuff we are seeing, not to mention trying to get Phillips/Cairo/Nix healthy by giving them time off is Walt's effort to get this team situated as well as he can for this next 10-game stretch.

It feels like a buckle in stretch.

[reds1869]

It is definitely a "buckle in" stretch and I'm a;ready reaching for the shoulder harness. This is going to be a fun ride. I'm young enough that my only memories of winning a title are as a child; I can't wait to watch the last part of the season unfold.

[Cyclone792]

Big stretch of games indeed. 6-4 through this stretch lets me feel pretty comfortable. 5-5 would be ok so long as one of those wins is in St. Louis. Less than five wins, though, and the situation could get dicey.

Personally, I think the seven game road trip is probably a bigger road trip than the west coast trip we were just on.

[Ghosts of 1990]

They're all big. Close to the end of the season we have a trip out to San Diego who will be fighting for their lives and then come home to host Milwaukee (like you said old playoff nemesis).

You have to win, win, win as much as you can and hope the rest takes care of itself.

[Redsfan320]

Carlos Gonzalez (Car-go they call him there) is a sheer beast. He sprays it all over the field, out of the park, and has an awesome glove too. I see on the highlights about every day.


320

[oneupper]

Carlos Gonzalez (Car-go they call him there) is a sheer beast. He sprays it all over the field, out of the park, and has an awesome glove too. I see on the highlights about every day.


320

I have to admit that "compatriota" CarGo is having a great year.

Have you seen his Home/Away splits? They're insane.
Unfortunately we'll have to face him at Coors.

(Home 1.212 OPS, Away .697).

At home, he's Barry Bonds on steroids. On the Road, he's Paul Janish.

[15fan]

Would love to see an extra innings marathon between Cards & Astros in Houston on Tues night before rosters expand on Wed.

Cards rotation sets up like this for the next week:

Mon: Westbrook @ Hou
Tues: Carpenter @ Hou
Wed: Garcia @ Hou

Th: Off

Fri would be Lohse's turn, but I think LaRussa skips him with the off day on Thurs so that the Reds get Wainright on Friday, Westbrook on Saturday, and Carpenter on Sunday.

[kbrake]

Would love to see an extra innings marathon between Cards & Astros in Houston on Tues night before rosters expand on Wed.

Cards rotation sets up like this for the next week:

Mon: Westbrook @ Hou
Tues: Carpenter @ Hou
Wed: Garcia @ Hou

Th: Off

Fri would be Lohse's turn, but I think LaRussa skips him with the off day on Thurs so that the Reds get Wainright on Friday, Westbrook on Saturday, and Carpenter on Sunday.

Jeff Suppan is getting the start Wednesday for the Cards in Houston. Garcia will be pushed back to Friday so the Cards can have their big 3 going against the Reds.

[traderumor]

At this stage, other than team and fan pride, 5-5 over that stretch will likely hold court, no matter what order and against whom they come. I suppose there is the chance that the Cards go on a 10 game winning streak over that same timeframe, with 3 of them coming against us. But they are playing in Houston, who has had their number all year and are playing well since dumping Berkman and Oswalt.

BTW, viewing each stretch of the season in 10 game chunks is good for MLB fan mental health .

[redsmetz]

At this juncture of the season, the goal is to win as many games as possible against whatever team we're facing. At this point, there's no question that lesser clubs still have some game in them and can't be taken lightly (I don't think anyone's suggesting that). The Cardinals situation in their last two series (maybe more) shows that any team can be another at any time right now.

I'm comfortable with a split in the next ten games, although I think we'll do better. The key, as I (and others) have said, is to keep winning our games. The rest will take care of itself.

[Heath]

From here on out, every 10 game streak can have 6 wins in it.

There are only 32 left.

[redsmetz]

From here on out, every 10 game streak can have 6 wins in it.

There are only 32 left.

If we play at the level we have (.577 clip), the Cardinals can only lose 9 games just to tie. They have 34 left which means they'd need to play .706 from here on out. If we only play .500, they still have to play at a .647 level.

That said, of course, we still have to play this out and get it done. In the last ten games, we've played at the .600 pace you suggest. That's 19 wins and it would mean the Cards have a very daunting task (26-8) to win it. I don't think they have that in them. I hope we have at least.

Still, I won't count my chickens until they're hatched.

[membengal]

Yeah, I'd be thrilled with 6 out of these next 10. Thrilled.

Just not counting on it.

Those four to end the stretch in Colorado are ill-timed. Especially on the backside of what is likely to be an emotional weekend of some sort in StL.

[SirFelixCat]

5-5 is acceptable, imo. Anything better is fantastic. I expect 2 of 3 vs Mil, 1 of 3 (but hoping like hell it's 2 of 3...and if, by some way, the Reds find a way to sweep, I'd feel comfortable printing playoff tix!!!) in St. Louis and a split here in Denver.

Going to all 4 of the Reds games here in Denver. My wife has never seen the Reds win, in person. 3 game sweep in LA 2 years ago and 3 game sweep here last year. This year, it all changes!

[Ghosts of 1990]

What's wrong with me? I'm insanely paranoid. You'd think we were 5 back right now with the way I feel about our chances.... I don't know, I've seen too many of my teams let it slip over the years. I'm worried about Milwaukee tonight.