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Thread: Predictions Updated!

  1. #1
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Predictions Updated!

    Back on January 8th, I made the following predictions for the upcoming season:


    AMERICAN LEAGUE
    EAST
    1. Boston
    2. New York
    3. Toronto
    4. Baltimore
    5. Tampa Bay

    Central
    1. Minnesota
    2. Chicago
    3. Cleveland
    4. Detroit
    5. Kansas City

    West
    1. Oakland
    2. Seattle (Wild Card)
    3. Texas
    4. Anaheim

    Oakland over Boston
    Seattle over Minnesota

    Oakland over Seattle

    NATIONAL LEAGUE
    East
    1. Philadelphia
    2. New York
    3. Montreal
    4. Atlanta
    5. Florida

    Central
    1. St Louis
    2. Houston (Wild Card)
    3. Chicago
    4. Cincinnati
    5. Pittsburg
    6. Milwaukee

    West
    1. San Fransisco
    2. San Diego
    3. Arizona
    4. Los Angeles
    5. Colorado

    St Louis over Philly
    San Fran over Houston

    San Fran over St Louis

    World Series
    Oakland over San Fran
    With some teams making a few noteworthy moves since then I've decided to update my predictions.
    I don't think I'll be changing any of my American League predictions, but do have a few to make in the NL..
    sooooo...

    NL East
    1. Phillies
    2. Braves
    3. Mets
    4. Expos
    5. Marlins

    NL Central
    1. Astros
    2. Cards
    3. Cubs
    4. Pirates
    5. Reds
    6. Brewers

    NL West
    1. Giants
    2. Dodgers
    3. Snakes
    4. Padres
    5. Rockies

    Wildcard-Cards

    Astros over Phillies
    Giants over Cards

    Giants over Astros

    Giants over A's

    PSR

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  3. #2
    Do it! TheBurn's Avatar
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    So what did the Pirates do to sneak by the Reds in your predictions? :thumbdn:

  4. #3
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Originally posted by TheBurn
    So what did the Pirates do to sneak by the Reds in your predictions? :thumbdn:
    Reggie Sanders got signed, and Pokey is hurt.

    Also, I like their starting rotation better then the Reds. Suppan in PNC Park should be a big boost to them.

    (By the way, yes I know that Pokey's injury is minor, but with Pokey you never know when OPERATION SHUTDOWN v2.0 might go into effect)

  5. #4
    Do it! TheBurn's Avatar
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    Good enough! Although of course, I do not agree!

  6. #5
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    A few comments.
    I think the Buccos did improve, but no way do I see them jumping by the Reds. Cubs...they have to prove it to me that they have improved that much. I like their rotation but don't really like their offense all that much. Reds second place behind the Astros. Cards third in my mind.

    Anaheim in fourth. Ouch. No way do they make the playoffs but I think, falling behind Texas is a bit of a stretch.

    Bosox ahead of the Yankees? I would love that to happen but don't see that either. Look at their roster. They have all stars at every position and starters coming out the rear to trade. No way do they not win the East.

    Atlanta falls to fourth? Don't believe that either. 2nd maybe, fourth no way.

    Pads ahead of Dbacks? Could happen but I can't see it.

    The rest I can see happening.

  7. #6
    Man Pills
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    NL East

    Atlanta
    Philly
    Florida
    Montreal
    New York


    NL Central

    Houston
    Cincy (wild card)
    St. Louis
    Chicago
    Pitt
    Milwaukee

    NL West

    San Fran
    L.A.
    Arizona
    Colorado
    San Diego

  8. #7
    Time is the Revelator. LvJ's Avatar
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    My Predictions:

    AMERICAN LEAGUE
    EAST
    1. Boston
    2. New York
    3. Toronto
    4. Baltimore
    5. Tampa Bay

    Central
    1. Chicago
    2. Minnesota
    3. Cleveland
    4. Kansas City
    5. Detroit

    West
    1. Oakland
    2. Anaheim
    3. Texas
    4. Seattle

    NATIONAL LEAGUE
    East
    1. Philadelphia
    2. New York
    3. Atlanta
    4. Florida
    5. Montreal

    Central
    1. Chicago
    2. Houston
    3. Cincinnati
    4. Pittsburgh
    5. St Louis
    6. Milwaukee

    West
    1. Arizona
    2. San Diego
    3. San Fransisco
    4. Colorado
    5. Los Angeles
    Hide your power alleys; Hide your wife

  9. #8
    A Little to the Left Redsfaithful's Avatar
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    AL EAST:
    1)New York Yankees
    2)Boston Red Sox
    3)Toronto Blue Jays
    4)Baltimore Orioles
    5)Tampa Bay Devil Rays


    AL CENTRAL:
    1)Minnesota Twins
    2)Chicago White Sox
    3)Cleveland Indians
    4)Detroit Tigers
    5)Kansas City Royals


    AL WEST:
    1)Oakland A's
    2)Seattle Mariners
    3)Anaheim Angels
    4)Texas Rangers


    NL EAST:
    1)Atlanta Braves
    2)Florida Marlins
    3)Philadelphia Phillies
    4)Montreal Expos
    5)New York Mets


    NL CENTRAL:
    1)Cincinnati Reds
    2)Houston Astros
    3)Chicago Cubs
    4)St. Louis Cardinals
    5)Pittsburgh Pirates
    6)Milwaukee Brewers


    NL WEST:
    1)Los Angeles Dodgers
    2)San Francisco Giants
    3)Arizona Diamondbacks
    4)San Diego Padres
    5)Colorado Rockies


    AL CHAMPS:Oakland A's
    NL CHAMPS:Los Angeles Dodgers


    WORLD CHAMPS:Oakland A's


    AL MVP:Alex Rodriguez
    NL MVP:Shawn Green


    AL CY:Pedro Martinez
    NL CY:Odalis Perez


    AL ROY:Jason Arnold
    NL ROY:Marlon Byrd
    We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.
    --Oscar Wilde

  10. #9
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Virginia Beach Reds


    Atlanta falls to fourth? Don't believe that either. 2nd maybe, fourth no way.

    Pads ahead of Dbacks? Could happen but I can't see it.

    The rest I can see happening.
    I guess you didn't read the second half of the post, where I updated my predictions..

    I've got Atlanta in 2nd now and the Pads in 4th

  11. #10
    Cruisin' for trouble
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    My predictions:

    AL East
    New York
    Boston
    Toronto
    Baltimore
    Tampa Bay
    (this division would seem to be the easiest to predict)

    AL Central
    Minnesota
    Chicago
    Cleveland
    Detroit
    Kansas City

    AL West
    Seattle
    Oakland
    Anaheim
    Texas
    (Oakland's offense is a question mark. Anaheim's pitching could suffer a setback)

    AL Wildcard - Boston

    New York over Boston
    Minnesota over Seattle

    New York over Minnesota

    NL East
    Philadelphia
    Montreal
    Atlanta
    Florida
    NY Mets
    (This is going to be a tight race. Florida will be involved in quite a few low-scoring and 1-run games. I think their pitching puts them over .500. Philly will win the division, but the spread from 1st to 4th will be less than 10 games.)

    NL Central
    Houston
    Cincinnati
    Chicago
    St. Louis
    Pittsburgh
    Milwaukee
    (THE toughest division to handicap considering all of the question marks for each team. Cincy is due for an upswing; St.Louis is looking at another tough year. This race will come down to the final week of the season).

    NL West
    San Francisco
    Arizona
    Los Angeles
    Colorado
    San Diego
    (San Francisco in a runaway. Arizona is just getting older and this is the year they really start to show it. LA improves some with Colorado and San Diego hovering around .500).

    NL Wildcard - Cincinnati

    San Francisco over Cincinnati
    Houston over Philadelphia

    San Francisco over Philadelphia

    New York over San Francisco

  12. #11
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Now which is it, Redsfaithful. 2003 MVP - Shawn Green or Ken Griffey Jr.?

  13. #12
    A Little to the Left Redsfaithful's Avatar
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    That was cut and pasted from a contest entry Randy.

    I may be the eternal optimist but if there's prizes involved I gotta come back down to earth.
    We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.
    --Oscar Wilde

  14. #13
    JuniorMVP2003
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    NL East
    Phillies
    Braves
    Mets
    Expos
    Marlins

    NL Central
    Astros
    REDS(wild card)
    Cards
    Cubs
    Bucs
    Brew Crew

    NL West
    Diamondbacks
    Giants
    dodgers
    Padres
    Rockies

    REDS over phillies
    D-backs over astros

    d-backs over reds

    Al East
    Yankees
    Boston(wildcard)
    toronto
    O's
    tampa bay

    Al Central
    Twins
    white sox
    Indians
    Tigers
    Royals

    Al West
    A's
    Angles
    M's
    Texas
    Twins over Yankees
    Red sox over A's
    Sox over Yankees

    And finally the Sox bring the championship back to boston

    MVP KEN GRIFFEY JR.

  15. #14
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    Baseball Prospectus is running a prediction contest.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/atm.shtml
    "People that frequent Internet forums resemble the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest!" - C. J. Cregg, The West Wing

  16. #15
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    I figure Boss is going to archive this thread soon. And since it's getting close to opening day, and since I'll be traveling to Cincinnati over the weekend for opening day , I thought I'd better call my shot early.

    One thing that really struck me this year is that the National League is extremely wide open. There is really only one team that I would consider "hopeless" this year, and that's the Brewers. Of course some teams are major longshots, such as the Padres, Pirates, and Marlins. But I wouldn't call them "hopeless." The American League is a different story, where the Devil Rays, Orioles, Royals, and Tigers are totally screwed as usual.

    Since it's so wide open in the NL, I decided to rank the teams the same way that Diamond Mind Baseball does it - with odds of winning. I usually sneak a peak at their predictions, but 1) they don't come out until the 30th and 2) they didn't really help last year (the Angels were predicted to go .500). So this is all done UN-scientifically. The only math I did was to make sure that the odds of each division added up to 100%.

    Anyway, here goes...

    American League East

    Yankees Win Division 53%, Reach Postseason 75%
    Red Sox Win Division 45%, Reach Postseason 66%
    Toronto Win Division 2%, Reach Postseason 10%
    Baltimore Less Than 1% chance of postseason
    Tampa Less Than 1% chance of postseason

    American League Central

    Minnesota - Win Division 60%, Reach Postseason 65%
    Chicago - Win Division 35%, Reach Postseason 40%
    Cleveland - Win Division 5%, Reach Postseason 5%
    Kansas City Less than 1% chance of postseason
    Detroit Less Than 1% chance of postseason

    American League West

    Oakland - Win Division 50%, Reach Postseason 66%
    Seattle - Win Division 25%, Reach Postseason 33%
    Anaheim - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 33%
    Texas - Win Division 10%, Reach Postseason 15%

    National League East

    Atlanta - Win Division 40%, Reach Postseason 50%
    Philadelphia - Win Division 25%, Reach Postseason 40%
    New York - Win Division 20%, Reach Postseason 33%
    Montreal - Win Division 8%, Reach Postseason 15%
    Florida - Win Division 7%, Reach Postseason 15%

    National League Central

    Houston - Win Division 40%, Reach Postseason 50%
    St. Louis - Win Division 25%, Reach Postseason 40%
    Chicago - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 30%
    Cincinnati - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 25%
    Pittsburgh - Win Division 5%, Reach Postseason 6%
    Milwaukee - Less Than 1% chance of postseason

    National League West

    San Francisco - Win Division 38%, Reach Postseason 45%
    Arizona - Win Division 35%, Reach Postseason 45%
    Colorado - Win Division 15%, Reach Postseason 25%
    Los Angeles - Win Division 10%, Reach Postseason 25%
    San Diego - Win Division 2%, Reach Postseason 5%

    NL MVP Runner Up (since Bonds is going to win): Jeff Kent
    NL Cy Young Runner Up (since RJ is going to win): Mark Prior
    NY Rookie of the Year: Kurt Ainsworth (if he still qualifies)

    AL MVP: Manny Ramirez
    AL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
    AL Rookie of the Year Runner Up (Since Mastui is going to win): Travis Hafner
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008


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