I don't think for a moment that luck is not involved with the numbers vis a vis Rolen. However, is it possible, that Rolen is more valuable than his 5 WAR shows? (I know, a dangerous question)
To my initial question, lets say it is luck that the Reds record is what it is when Rolen plays. I ask, what are the odds that there would "luckily" be such a difference.