Scouting Durham

[GOYA]

It looks a little ugly.

Their last 5 starters:

Aneury Rodriguez - RHP - 3.80 as a starter
Richard De Los Santos - RHP - 3.36 as a starter
Ramon Ortiz - RHP - 6.35 - put on restricted list
Brian Baker - RHP - 4.37 as a starter
Bobby Livingston - LHP - 5.20 as a starter

They are loaded with RH starters. The Bats hitters are all righties except for Dorn, Costanzo and Castillo.

The big difference between the two teams right now is that they have some hammers in the pen.

Adding Volquez to the Bats roster could be a help but he could only help with one game. And he started today for Dayton. The series could be over before he was available.

The Bulls have Heath Phillips listed on their DL and I have no idea if he is going to be healthy for the series.

Our rotation for last 5:

Reineke
Cochran
Klinker
Horst
Jukich



In generalities:
Offense - edge to Bulls
Starters - edge to Bulls
Bullpen - big edge to Bulls

We have our work cut out for us.

[batsfan]

Nice preview. However, I have read the last five (detailed) posts about the bulls on the indyweek.com bulls blog. Here are some interesting quotes, that give a much more optimistic view of the series for the Bats.

I have a summery of the quotes below, if you do not want to read all of them.

9/3:

"What's wrong with the Durham bullpen? More accurately, what's wrong with the four guys who relieved tonight? And is Winston Abreu, who recently blew a save chance and struggled a bit in converting another one on Tuesday, also cause for concern? Is late-season fatigue an issue?"

"This team, the best in its league and historically good in its milieu, is trying to put tape on the windows while it still can. There's some pretty fragile-looking glass right now, what with the breakages in the bullpen and the brittleness of the bats and the thin experience of the catchers. "

9/4:

"The Bulls aren't hitting well at all—in fact, they're hitting terribly—and the pitching hasn't been all that great either. The bullpen has been particularly shaky, and lost the game last night for the second straight time. "

"Durham starter Richard De Los Santos basically had nothing, which in itself was sobering: he had won his last seven decisions (all of those in a row during a superb July-August stretch), and had not had a poor outing since July 15 against Charlotte."

"Is De Los Santos fatigued? He has thrown far more innings this season than he ever has before. His 23 starts shatter his personal season-high of 13, which he set in his first pro season way back in 2001, when he was just 17 years old. And he is the Game One starter for the Bulls in their first playoff series. Now that's a sobering thought."

"Charlie Montoyo confirmed that neither Heath Phillips nor Virgil Vasquez, both on the disabled list, will pitch again this season."

9/5:

"The Bulls as currently configured have no shot of repeating as International League champions, and not just because of injuries. But since dealing with those injuries is their only recourse, they might as well send an SOS to the Tampa Bay Rays and see what kind of response they get. If it isn't loud, clear, and to the rescue, they're sunk."

"The Bulls are carrying a thin bench right now, and if Ruggiano or Chavez can't come back, it could get thinner. "

"And so, as it stands now, the Bulls have four banjo hitters in their everyday lineup: Perez, Furmaniak, Omar Luna and Nevin Ashley."

"Winston Abreu is 33, and had surgery for an aneurysm in his pitching shoulder last fall. Although he has had another fine year, it's natural to surmise that he is feeling fatigue at this point. He has walked five batters in his last 4 2/3 innings pitched, after walking 16 in the previous 50. Twice recently, Abreu's pitches have had no bite. "

"The Bulls badly need production from him [Leslie Anderson] if they're to have any hope of winning the championship; otherwise Elliot Johnson and Chris Richard are the only guys who make you feel confident in their ability to reach base whenever they step to the plate. "


"The Bulls are certainly not the only team to lose players to the big leagues. It's the recent injuries that really create the problem. The current roster bears a shocking lack of resemblance to the one that got the team to the playoffs, and is quite inferior—on paper, anyway—to the current corporation (in the Hegelian sense) of the Columbus Clippers. "

9/6:

"It seemed fitting that four of the Bulls' five RBIs last night were spoken for by Elliot Johnson and Chris Richard. Those two are the Bulls' lone true threats, really, as the season moves into the playoffs."

"Brian Baker fared poorly in his start, and Montoyo said afterward that Baker will probably not pitch again this season."

"If [Jake McGee] , R. J. Swindle (who also looked better in his last appearance), Bateman and Abreu are all in good shape come Wednesday, the bullpen will be formidable for the post-season."

"That forced him (Ramon Ortiz) from the game; worse, it ended his season, according to Montoyo."

"With the loss of Ortiz, and now (probably) Baker as well, the Bulls' post-season starting rotation goes back into the pan. Richard De Los Santos will pitch on Wednesday, followed by Aneury Rodriguez on Thursday; beyond that, Charlie Montoyo was unsure. Neither of those pitchers was supposed to be in the rotation this year, and neither were the two likeliest to follow them: Bobby Livingston, who was just signed a couple of weeks ago in desperation, and Paul Phillips."

"A career reliever, Phillips's last three appearances for Double-A Montgomery were all starts, perhaps in preparation for what is to come. (They were short starts; he allowed four runs in 14 total innings.) Phillips is no ace, by any means, and his short-distance limitations will tax the bullpen if he starts for Durham; but at this point, you'll take what you can get, and Phillips at least has the experience under his belt of having pitched for last year's Bulls playoff team. "

9/6 (after the game):

"Charlie Montoyo said after the game that catcher Craig Albernaz is on his way from Double-A Montgomery, and that he expects other players, as well. (UPDATE, TUESDAY, 10:00 a.m.: A whopping six more have been added, although it isn't clear if they will all be active. The most intriguing name among them is right-handed starting pitcher Alex Cobb, who along with Alexander Torres was the ace of the Montgomery staff.) "



So, to summarize these quotes:

* Durham is going through a team-wide slump.
* The lineup only has two major threats in Elliott Johnson, and Chris Richard.
* The bullpen is a strength, but has been slumping, and close Winston Abreu may be running out of gas.
* DL'ed starters Heath Phillips and Virgil Vazquez will not return.
* Starters Ramon Ortiz and Brian Baker will not pitch anymore this season, and 14 game winner Richard De Los Santos looked bad last time out.
* 6- 7 new players have been added today, though not all may be activated. The only two confirmed are light hitting catcher Craig Albernaz, and AA ace starter Alex Cobb.
* At this point the likely post season rotation will be:

Richard De Los Santos (confirmed)
Aneury Rodriguez (confirmed)
Alex Cobb (AAA debut)
Bobby Livingston (5.81 ERA this year)
Paul Phillips (Not a real starter, has only two pitches, but pitched well in a start against the bats in the playoffs last year).

Cobb will start game 3, as Livingston and Phillips both pitches 6 innings Monday. The last two could be swapped.

Edit:

Cobb and Albernaz are now on the roster, along with Rashad Eldridge, who is a 28 year old OF who has had a abysmal season at the plate.

[muddie]

"Charlie Montoyo confirmed that neither Heath Phillips nor Virgil Vasquez, both on the disabled list, will pitch again this season."

I've seen the Bulls play three times this season. Of the three games I did see, Vasquez pitched one game and Phillips pitched two of them. Both guys were solid. If neither of these guys is in the mix it has to help. On July 2nd the Bats beat the Bulls when Klinker faced Heath. The starters both did a respectable job but Klinker did manage the win and Heath got a no decision. This game was a lot of fun.

On June 29th the Bats had the Bulls beat behind the start of Volquez but Chapman blew the win. Vasquez started this game for Durham. Louisville should have won this one. On June 30th Jukich was as good as Hellickson, who is in Tampa now. The bull pen let that one get away as well.

BTW, Baseball America named Hellickson Player of the Year today.

I don't see Durham as a heavy favorite. Louisville needs to take advantage of the two home games at the front.

[muddie]

Article on the Bulls from a local perspective...FWIW

http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/09/...er-system.html