So you're taking the NL's highest-scoring offense and replacing Gomes with Alonso and Cabrera with Janish and all of a sudden they're going to be losing games 3-1?Originally Posted by Will M
So you're taking the NL's highest-scoring offense and replacing Gomes with Alonso and Cabrera with Janish and all of a sudden they're going to be losing games 3-1?
imo a lot of things have gone right this year.
the two catchers have a combined OPS+ of 116. Ramon will be 35 next year.
Joey has had an MVP season.
Rolen's OPS+ is 135, way above his recent performances. he'll be 36 next year.
The five main bench guys have OPS+ between 100 & 115.
in fact the only guys on the team that i think will be better offensively in 2011than in 2010 are Stubbs & Bruce. i feel the team could use a thumper in left field to help score runs over the long season. Alonso is unproven. he is an unknown for his career & a big big unknown for 2011.
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This is why I wanted the team to go for it this year at the deadline. Lots of career years and doubtful to be repeated performances. Bruce stepping up will hopefully offset a decline from Rolen, but I'm not convinced that we won't see drops at C, 2B and some of the bench guys. A big middle of the order presence in LF would offset a lot of that. I'm not sure that the Reds can really afford it though.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
1. Why isn't Balentin in AAA more in the argument in LF?
2. A platoon of Balentin/Francisco? Is Cisco definately out as LF potential?
3. We all assume Yonder can't play LF (but we lived thru a season of Gomes out there).
4. Frazier is the last in house option. Again, does he not project out there.
5. Gomes is only on the books for less than 2M.
6. You can argue Heisey, but boy he tailed off down the stretch badly.
OK, I agree w/ the catcher thing, but assuming hannigan takes over to play 3 of the 5 days, I'm not sure why they couldn't approach those offensive numbers again.
rolen, I'd expect a drop off as well, and I think they need to get him more rest, that could be key.
where I disagree is the thought that Joey won't have another MVP type season. Sure he's had a great year, but I see nothing about him, short of injury that makes me believe he won't have MVP type seasons for several more years to come. Are you planning on Pujols all of a sudden backing off next year since he's had a few MVP type seasons recently? Then why doesn't Joey get the same benefit? Sure Pujols has a longer track record, but Joey's been this good for 2+ seasons now. If the mental issues/ father's death didn't hit him last year, he would have been in MVP contention last year.
Additionally, it seems like Bruce has really put it together, and should provide a boost. Stubbs should be more consistant. I'd expect more of the same out of Phillips.
to me, it all adds up to an offense that should be as good overall as this year's version. Perhaps even better if they can get a little more consistancy out of LF next year thru free agency or promotion.
If the Reds do go in house for a LF next year, I would like to see what Balentine could do with some playing time. He is still young, absolutely mashed the late in the year in Louisville and his defense is better then Gomes. At worst I feel he could be a great 4th outfielder.
i don't feel Joey will have a big dropoff next year. i simply feel that it would be asking a lot for him to improve on MVP numbers. so you could pencil him in for similar numbers.
i do feel several guys will drop off & only two guys will improve (Stubbs & Bruce). so i'd like the team to get a big bat for LF. i actually feel that if Walt got a big thumper for left that the team could be a world series contender next year.
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It shocked me how little of a look Balentein got this year. Maybe we're not in a position to be counting on risky players like Balentein anymore, but with his upside, I'd sure like to see that guy get one shot before we cut him loose.
I'm not saying he won't be back, but he's becoming a free agent this year.
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