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Thread: Justin Smoak-How is this even possible?

  1. #1
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Justin Smoak-How is this even possible?

    Just came across a stat that made me do a double-take.

    Justin Smoak started the year with the Rangers and drew 38 walks in 275 PA. Which works out to a very respectable 13.8%.
    He gets traded to the Mariners and draws exactly 1 walk in 81 PA.
    This equates to a miserable 1.2%.

    For comparison, Smoak's 13.8% would nestle right between Pujols at 13.9% and Votto at 13.7% That is some pretty serious walking.
    OTOH, Smoak's 1.2% would be worst among players with 350 or more PA on the year.

    That doesn't even seem possible to me.
    A summer watching a bad Reds' team, is still a pretty good summer.

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  3. #2
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Smoak-How is this even possible?

    Well, I would say 81 PAs is still a pretty small sample. It's barely a quarter of the sample used with Texas. That's probably your answer right there.

    Easy for a guy to go into new surroundings and perhaps his approach changes as he's eager to impress the new teammates, coaches, front office people, etc. That's probably the case here.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Justin Smoak-How is this even possible?

    Pitchers are going to be much more careful in Texas than in Seattle. Plus, Smoak's reputation probably took a hit as the season wore on, making pitchers more willing to challenge him.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Justin Smoak-How is this even possible?

    Better hitting coach in Texas?
    Follow me on twitter @EricLilly7

  6. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Smoak-How is this even possible?

    Small sample. Which doesn't mean pure random variation. But it does mean that the effects of any minor trend, such as a new approach, pressing to impress his new organization, bad umpires who aren't used to guys taking pitches in the PCL, or most likely a confluence of such factors could have what appears to be a major effect.

    I'd be curious and want to better understand what's going on. But I wouldn't be worried, yet.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-24-2010 at 01:41 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #6
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Smoak-How is this even possible?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Small sample. Which doesn't mean pure random variation. But it does mean that the effects of any minor trend, such as a new approach, pressing to impress his new organization, bad umpires who aren't used to guys taking pitches in the PCL, or most likely a confluence of such factors could have what appears to be a major effect.

    I'd be curious and want to better understand what's going on. But I wouldn't be worried, yet.
    You mean jojo isn't at home, taking this news horribly....

    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Justin Smoak-How is this even possible?

    Almost everyone's Offensive stats go down in Seattle.

    Look at what happened to Chone Figgins. He lost about 100 points off of his On-Base-Percentage.

  9. #8
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Smoak-How is this even possible?

    Justin Smoak as a Ranger was, more often than not, hitting in front of Matt Treanor in a lineup that was otherwise pretty stacked. The Mariners don't get on base enough to give other teams much reason to pitch around anyone other than Ichiro or Branyon.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  10. #9
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Smoak-How is this even possible?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    You mean jojo isn't at home, taking this news horribly....

    His walk percentage as an M this season isn't really a symptom of his underlying skill set or change in approach as evidenced by his time at Tacoma.

    It's most likely just one of those things.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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