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Thread: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    I've put together a spreadsheet, as part of my organizational references that I've been working on, regarding this offseason's 40-Man roster.

    Here is a first draft, containing the current roster (with offseason status) and all the eligible Minor League free agents and Rule 5-eligible players within the system that need added to the roster or may be taken in the next Rule 5 draft.

    40-MAN ROSTER GRID

    I have not included, in the right column of minor league possibilities, players such as Devin Mesoraco, Dave Sappelt, Donnie Joseph, etc. who may wind up on the roster at some point this next season, but are not likely to be reserved this November 20 when the protection lists are due to Major League Baseball.

    Each team reserves 40 players under the Majors (obviously), 38 for AAA, 37 for AA and 35 for all other classifications. Essentially all Rule 5-eligible players can be drafted at a level higher (or more) than they are reserved on November 20. The Rule 5 draft takes place at the winter meetings in mid-December in three phases: Major League (for all players in the minors not on a 40-man roster), AAA or 3A phase (for players reserved at AA or below) and 2A phase (for players reserved at A or below).

    Players become eligible for their 4th Rule 5 draft since the date of signing their first pro contract. Players 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their first contract get an additional 5th draft before becoming Rule 5 eligible.

    So, if my math is correct, while this is not an official list, here are the 39 players I've concluded are currently Rule 5 eligible for the Major League phase:

    Code:
    RP	AGUIDO GONZALEZ		L	L	24
    RP	ANDREW BOWMAN		R	L	24
    SP	BEN JUKICH		L	L	27
    3B	CARLOS MENDEZ		R	R	24
    C	CHRIS DENOVE		R	R	27
    SP	CLAYTON SHUNICK		R	R	24
    SP	CURTIS PARTCH		R	R	23
    SP	DALLAS BUCK		R	R	25
    1B	DANIEL DORN		L	L	26
    RP	DANIEL GUERRERO		R	R	25
    RP	DOUG SALINAS		R	R	21
    1B	ERIC EYMANN		R	R	26
    RP	EZEQUIEL INFANTE	L	L	22
    2B	JAKE KAHAULELIO		R	R	25
    SP	JAMES AVERY		R	R	26
    RP	JEFF JEFFORDS		R	R	25
    RP	JEREMY HORST		L	L	24
    SP	JORDAN HOTCHKISS	R	R	24
    C	JORDAN WIDEMAN		R	R	21
    2B	JOSE CASTRO		S	R	23
    2B	JOSE GUALDRON		R	R	23
    RP	JOSEPH KREBS		L	L	26
    SP	JOSH RAVIN		R	R	22
    RP	JUNIOR MARTINEZ		R	R	24
    OF	JUSTIN REED		L	R	22
    OF	KEVYN FEINER		R	R	23
    SS	KRIS NEGRON		R	R	24
    RP	LEE TABOR		L	L	25
    SP	MATT KLINKER		R	R	25
    1B	MICHAEL GRIFFIN		R	R	26
    SS	MIGUEL ROJAS		R	R	21
    3B	MIKE COSTANZO		L	R	27
    SP	SCOTT CARROLL		R	R	26
    RP	SCOTT GAFFNEY		R	R	24
    OF	SEAN HENRY		R	R	25
    OF	TODD FRAZIER		R	R	24
    SP	TRAVIS WEBB		L	L	26
    RP	TZU-KAI CHIU		L	L	23
    SS	ZACK COZART		R	R	25
    Further, players that have been assigned outright by their Major League club (see Micah Owings) who's minor league contract has expired become free agents. Even if a club re-signs these players, they are still eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not re-added.

    Minor league players initially sign 7-year contracts, covering all or portions of 7 different minor league seasons. If these players become free agents, they too are Rule 5 eligible even after signing for the following season. Subsequent minor league contracts, or contracts signed by players with previous Major League experience often sign multi-year deals, though these minor league contracts are not published. Therefore, I always assume 7 years for the first contract and 1 year deals for any player signed thereafter.

    With that in mind, my tentative list of minor league free agents that the Reds have to tend to this offseason:

    Code:
    SP	MICAH OWINGS		R	R	27	ASSIGNED
    SP	JUSTIN LEHR		R	R	33	FREE AGENT (C)
    SP	DARYL THOMPSON		R	R	24	FREE AGENT (C)
    RP	JERRY GIL		R	R	27	FREE AGENT (C)
    RP	JASON ISRINGHAUSEN	R	R	38	FREE AGENT (C)
    P	CHAD REINEKE		R	R	28	FREE AGENT (C)
    C	WILKIN CASTILLO		S	R	26	FREE AGENT (C)
    RP	JESUS DELGADO		R	R	26	FREE AGENT (D)
    RP	FEDERICO BAEZ		R	R	29	FREE AGENT (D)
    RP	GILBERT DE LA VARA	L	L	25	FREE AGENT (D)
    RP	RUBEN MEDINA		R	R	24	FREE AGENT (D)
    P	ABE WOODY		R	R	27	FREE AGENT (D)
    C	BRANDON YARBROUGH	L	R	25	FREE AGENT (D)
    RF	DENIS PHIPPS		R	R	25	FREE AGENT (D)
    De La Vara (who the Reds signed this August after he was released -- for the second time this season mind you -- by the Tigers), may have additional seasons covered by his Minor League UPC, but I'm unable to verify. I'll assume not, for now. He was actually drafted in last year's Rule 5 draft by Houston, but returned to Kansas City prior to the season as Houston decided they had too many LHP specialists. Yarbrough is a former Cardinals' third-round pick.

    Note above that the only difference between Free Agent (C) and (D) is the C players have Major League experience.

    As for the 40-Man Roster itself, the Reds currently have 43 players and need to dwindle that number down to 40 (or less) by November 20.

    Free Agents Mike Lincoln, Russ Springer and Willie Bloomquist seem to be the perfect fits for that task.

    Step 2 for me: find room for Matt Klinker, Doug Salinas, Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier at very least. I know some may be surprised by Salinas, but I'm pretty high on him. Conservatively though, the Reds will need to find 3-5 spots, especially if Danny Dorn is added. I suspect that will only happen if Gomes is out the door or the Reds will not be keeping either Laynce Nix or Jim Edmonds.

    So let's assume four spots (though others may disagree on the fourth).

    We can safely assume Aaron Harang's option won't be picked up. There's a good chance Corky Miller will again be outright assigned. I doubt the Reds pick up the Orlando Cabrera option. Jim Edmonds is likely to retire. So there's your four.

    Sam LeCure and Matt Maloney are non-tender candidates. Further, Miguel Cairo may not be re-signed. There are three more possible spots. I'm guessing that Dorn and any outside OF possibility shall be tied to the futures of Nix and Gomes.

    One last thing to consider: Homer Bailey, Carlos Fisher and (if healthy) Jose Arredondo will need to make the club next year. The three of them are out of options.

    OK that's all I got for now. If anyone sees any additions/subtractions/corrections with the Rule 5 list, by all means let me know. I feel like it's pretty accurate, but given there are well over 275 players in the organization, I may have made a mistake or two with my database.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    Clay Shunick was drafted in 2008. Jordan Wideman was younger than 19 when he signed. Other than that, all those players are rule five eligible. I may be able to find a few more eligible players for you.

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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    Just to continue with what Brutus said, there are different phases of the Rule V draft. When the reds set their Triple and Double-A roster for the Rule V draft. Say they don't protect Klinker. They would put Klinker on the AAA roster, meaning if he was taken he would have to be on the 25-man roster for his new team. Now, they may put someone like Jose Castro on the Double-A roster, so if he is taken, he is taken in the minor league phase. The only reason I bring this is up so they would put those 37 players they really don't want to leave on the Triple-A roster so if they are taken they have to be on the big league roster. They put guys (fillers almost) on the Double-A roster. So there is a lot of strategy going into it, not just putting guys on the 40, but beyond that.
    Also, I really don't see Maloney or LeCure as non-tender candidates. Fisher, Danny Ray on the other hand, I could easily see that happening

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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    I really don't see Maloney or LeCure as non-tender candidates
    Agreed.

    I could see Burton being nontendered. I'd keep Fisher ahead of him.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  6. #5
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Clay Shunick was drafted in 2008. Jordan Wideman was younger than 19 when he signed. Other than that, all those players are rule five eligible. I may be able to find a few more eligible players for you.
    Good catch on those two. I have their draft, signing and birth dates correct in the database, so it was simply human error (ha ha). I'm going to automate my database to tell me the players that are eligible, removing any clumsy work, but I just haven't entered the formula yet.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    I have been away on vacation, so I might have missed a transaction, but is there a reason Balentien was not included for consideration?

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    I have been away on vacation, so I might have missed a transaction, but is there a reason Balentien was not included for consideration?
    I would guess it's because he's a free agent.

  9. #8
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    Quote Originally Posted by cinreds21 View Post
    Just to continue with what Brutus said, there are different phases of the Rule V draft. When the reds set their Triple and Double-A roster for the Rule V draft. Say they don't protect Klinker. They would put Klinker on the AAA roster, meaning if he was taken he would have to be on the 25-man roster for his new team. Now, they may put someone like Jose Castro on the Double-A roster, so if he is taken, he is taken in the minor league phase. The only reason I bring this is up so they would put those 37 players they really don't want to leave on the Triple-A roster so if they are taken they have to be on the big league roster. They put guys (fillers almost) on the Double-A roster. So there is a lot of strategy going into it, not just putting guys on the 40, but beyond that.
    Also, I really don't see Maloney or LeCure as non-tender candidates. Fisher, Danny Ray on the other hand, I could easily see that happening
    It seems to me they were pretty protective of Danny Ray being a LH option. I doubt he's in jeopardy either, though Fisher I could definitely see.

    Personally, I don't expect LeCure to be non-tendered, nor necessarily Maloney, but with the depth of the rotation, it wouldn't surprised me if one is let go for that reason.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    I have been away on vacation, so I might have missed a transaction, but is there a reason Balentien was not included for consideration?
    Ah yes, very simple reason: he was at the top of my table and I just simply inadvertently didn't paste him into the section

    I haven't been able to tell his minor league contract status, but I do believe he should be on the list, if even as a free agent. Thanks for pointing that out. He was completely supposed to be included in this, just simply missed pasting him into the code.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    It seems to me they were pretty protective of Danny Ray being a LH option. I doubt he's in jeopardy either, though Fisher I could definitely see.

    Personally, I don't expect LeCure to be non-tendered, nor necessarily Maloney, but with the depth of the rotation, it wouldn't surprised me if one is let go for that reason.
    The reason why I say Danny is expendable is because they have other options who are just as good or perhaps better than him. They have Vall already on the 40. Krebs and Horst are both candidates to be put on, and also Donnie Joseph is maybe half a season away. Now it could be they keep Danny Ray on and opt not to put Krebs or Horst on. It could go either way. I just think Danny Ray has a "better" shot, along with Fisher, of being removed to make room for someone who is Rule V eligible.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    Quote Originally Posted by cinreds21 View Post
    The reason why I say Danny is expendable is because they have other options who are just as good or perhaps better than him. They have Vall already on the 40. Krebs and Horst are both candidates to be put on, and also Donnie Joseph is maybe half a season away. Now it could be they keep Danny Ray on and opt not to put Krebs or Horst on. It could go either way. I just think Danny Ray has a "better" shot, along with Fisher, of being removed to make room for someone who is Rule V eligible.
    That makes sense. I definitely think Horst is a guy that may be intriguing for that role. I could envision a scenario where DRH is non-tendered in order to pave the way for Horst.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    It seems to me they were pretty protective of Danny Ray being a LH option. I doubt he's in jeopardy either, though Fisher I could definitely see.

    Personally, I don't expect LeCure to be non-tendered, nor necessarily Maloney, but with the depth of the rotation, it wouldn't surprised me if one is let go for that reason.
    I think LeCure is a guy who sticks around. He's a nice cheap insurance policy for the rotation and could be used quite solidly out of the pen in the mean time. I think Maloney is almost the pitching version of Dorn, they just don't see him as a Red.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    I think Hotchkiss has to be in the conversation. Given that he had such a good year, and that he finished it in Double-A, it wouldn't be surprising if the Reds got burned by exposing him.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I think LeCure is a guy who sticks around. He's a nice cheap insurance policy for the rotation and could be used quite solidly out of the pen in the mean time. I think Maloney is almost the pitching version of Dorn, they just don't see him as a Red.
    That's kind of how I look at it. That's why I wouldn't be completely shocked if Maloney isn't tendered a new contract. LeCure's versatility seems to be something the Reds value.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: 2011 40-Man Roster Construction

    I'd be stunned if Maloney isn't tendered. First of all, he's still got an option according to Brutus' site, if he's on the club he makes league minimum.

    And he's a LH starter with a 3.57 ERA.


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