2011 40-Man Roster Construction

[cinreds21]

Just an update (kinda)

I texted a candidate and got this response: "no not yet. You got any Mr. GM?"

[dougdirt]

I would protect: Frazier, Cozart, Thompson, Horst and Negron. My gut tells me that Carroll, Klinker and Dorn would go undrafted.

[lollipopcurve]

Frazier, Cozart, Negron, for sure

Dorn, maybe. If they are concerned about their AAA starting staff, maybe they keep Klinker and/or Thompson. I don't see Horst or Carroll getting a spot.

[cinreds21]

We shall see guys. It's gonna be really interesting to see.

[dougdirt]

Frazier, Cozart, Negron, for sure

Dorn, maybe. If they are concerned about their AAA starting staff, maybe they keep Klinker and/or Thompson. I don't see Horst or Carroll getting a spot.

I would be incredibly surprised if Horst is left off. A left handed pitcher with a sub 2.50 ERA between AA/AAA this season in nearly 60 innings is not likely to be left unprotected. I could be wrong, but it would really, really surprise me.

[lollipopcurve]

A left handed pitcher with a sub 2.50 ERA between AA/AAA this season in nearly 60 innings is not likely to be left unprotected. I could be wrong, but it would really, really surprise me.

You could be right. With Valiquette not showing much and DRay going south, they're getting a little thin there. But Horst's stuff is entirely marginal.

Open spots on the 40-man can come in handy.

[redsof72]

Tough call. Once you get past the two locks, Negron would seem likely. The Reds see Klinker as a LeCure clone in terms of stuff and potential, and LeCure has been protected. Not sure about Thompson. Until the AFL, there was zero chance of him being protected. He has been so injury prone, not sure if anyone would take him. I would love to see Horst protected, but the Reds have never totally seemed sold on Horst even going back to '08 when he tore up the MWL with Dayton (took forever to move him into the rotation even though it was obvious he was their best pitcher). Hotchkiss? Results would say yes, but he has been an organizational guy. I heard that he was throwing a lot harder in 2010 than he ever had before and if that's true, then maybe. Early in the 2010 season, Carroll would have seemed like a sure thing and he has a good arm. A lot of these guys have shown glimpses but not done it over full seasons. Krebs doesn't throw hard enough. A darkhorse candidate would be Miguel Rojas, who would be on there if it came down to simply selecting the five prospects that the Reds like the best, but in his case, it would appear to be unlikely they would use a spot on him considering no one is likely to take a light-hitting Single-A shortstop, even with gold glove defensive skills.

Will be an interesting call, and we know how much more likely 40-man guys are to get those short-term call-ups that arise during the season, and for that reason, these decisions really become critical because these guys stand a good chance of seeing big league time in 2011.

[mdccclxix]

I only counted 33 players on the Reds website. Don't we have room for 7?

[cinreds21]

Yea, but you have to think one would go to Arthur and some free agents we sign. I see Fisher, Burton, Bray, and Danny Ray is candidates to get dropped if they need to make room.

So basically, if we have 33 spots now, make it 35 with the additions of Cozart and Frazier. Those are given, so we have 5 spots to protect guys with and/or sign/trade new players.

[mdccclxix]

Yea, but you have to think one would go to Arthur and some free agents we sign. I see Fisher, Burton, Bray, and Danny Ray is candidates to get dropped if they need to make room.

So basically, if we have 33 spots now, make it 35 with the additions of Cozart and Frazier. Those are given, so we have 5 spots to protect guys with and/or sign/trade new players.

OK, I knew I was missing somebody.

[OnBaseMachine]

There's no way the Reds DFA Bray, nor should they, IMO. He posted a 9.53 K/9 and .626 OPS against upon his return from Tommy John surgery and he looked dominant over the last month of the season. I think he'll be a key part of the Reds bullpen next season.

[lollipopcurve]

Didn't realize Hotchkiss and Rojas needed to be protected. Wouldn't be surprised if the Reds added both. Rojas is the kind of defender a major league team could make use of on its 25-man for a year.

[mdccclxix]

I've put together a spreadsheet, as part of my organizational references that I've been working on, regarding this offseason's 40-Man roster.

Here is a first draft, containing the current roster (with offseason status) and all the eligible Minor League free agents and Rule 5-eligible players within the system that need added to the roster or may be taken in the next Rule 5 draft.

40-MAN ROSTER GRID

I have not included, in the right column of minor league possibilities, players such as Devin Mesoraco, Dave Sappelt, Donnie Joseph, etc. who may wind up on the roster at some point this next season, but are not likely to be reserved this November 20 when the protection lists are due to Major League Baseball.

Each team reserves 40 players under the Majors (obviously), 38 for AAA, 37 for AA and 35 for all other classifications. Essentially all Rule 5-eligible players can be drafted at a level higher (or more) than they are reserved on November 20. The Rule 5 draft takes place at the winter meetings in mid-December in three phases: Major League (for all players in the minors not on a 40-man roster), AAA or 3A phase (for players reserved at AA or below) and 2A phase (for players reserved at A or below).

Players become eligible for their 4th Rule 5 draft since the date of signing their first pro contract. Players 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their first contract get an additional 5th draft before becoming Rule 5 eligible.

So, if my math is correct, while this is not an official list, here are the 39 players I've concluded are currently Rule 5 eligible for the Major League phase:

RP	AGUIDO GONZALEZ		L	L	24
RP	ANDREW BOWMAN		R	L	24
SP	BEN JUKICH		L	L	27
3B	CARLOS MENDEZ		R	R	24
C	CHRIS DENOVE		R	R	27
SP	CLAYTON SHUNICK		R	R	24
SP	CURTIS PARTCH		R	R	23
SP	DALLAS BUCK		R	R	25
1B	DANIEL DORN		L	L	26
RP	DANIEL GUERRERO		R	R	25
RP	DOUG SALINAS		R	R	21
1B	ERIC EYMANN		R	R	26
RP	EZEQUIEL INFANTE	L	L	22
2B	JAKE KAHAULELIO		R	R	25
SP	JAMES AVERY		R	R	26
RP	JEFF JEFFORDS		R	R	25
RP	JEREMY HORST		L	L	24
SP	JORDAN HOTCHKISS	R	R	24
C	JORDAN WIDEMAN		R	R	21
2B	JOSE CASTRO		S	R	23
2B	JOSE GUALDRON		R	R	23
RP	JOSEPH KREBS		L	L	26
SP	JOSH RAVIN		R	R	22
RP	JUNIOR MARTINEZ		R	R	24
OF	JUSTIN REED		L	R	22
OF	KEVYN FEINER		R	R	23
SS	KRIS NEGRON		R	R	24
RP	LEE TABOR		L	L	25
SP	MATT KLINKER		R	R	25
1B	MICHAEL GRIFFIN		R	R	26
SS	MIGUEL ROJAS		R	R	21
3B	MIKE COSTANZO		L	R	27
SP	SCOTT CARROLL		R	R	26
RP	SCOTT GAFFNEY		R	R	24
OF	SEAN HENRY		R	R	25
OF	TODD FRAZIER		R	R	24
SP	TRAVIS WEBB		L	L	26
RP	TZU-KAI CHIU		L	L	23
SS	ZACK COZART		R	R	25

Further, players that have been assigned outright by their Major League club (see Micah Owings) who's minor league contract has expired become free agents. Even if a club re-signs these players, they are still eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not re-added.

Minor league players initially sign 7-year contracts, covering all or portions of 7 different minor league seasons. If these players become free agents, they too are Rule 5 eligible even after signing for the following season. Subsequent minor league contracts, or contracts signed by players with previous Major League experience often sign multi-year deals, though these minor league contracts are not published. Therefore, I always assume 7 years for the first contract and 1 year deals for any player signed thereafter.

With that in mind, my tentative list of minor league free agents that the Reds have to tend to this offseason:

SP	MICAH OWINGS		R	R	27	ASSIGNED
SP	JUSTIN LEHR		R	R	33	FREE AGENT (C)
SP	DARYL THOMPSON		R	R	24	FREE AGENT (C)
RP	JERRY GIL		R	R	27	FREE AGENT (C)
RP	JASON ISRINGHAUSEN	R	R	38	FREE AGENT (C)
P	CHAD REINEKE		R	R	28	FREE AGENT (C)
C	WILKIN CASTILLO		S	R	26	FREE AGENT (C)
RP	JESUS DELGADO		R	R	26	FREE AGENT (D)
RP	FEDERICO BAEZ		R	R	29	FREE AGENT (D)
RP	GILBERT DE LA VARA	L	L	25	FREE AGENT (D)
RP	RUBEN MEDINA		R	R	24	FREE AGENT (D)
P	ABE WOODY		R	R	27	FREE AGENT (D)
C	BRANDON YARBROUGH	L	R	25	FREE AGENT (D)
RF	DENIS PHIPPS		R	R	25	FREE AGENT (D)

De La Vara (who the Reds signed this August after he was released -- for the second time this season mind you -- by the Tigers), may have additional seasons covered by his Minor League UPC, but I'm unable to verify. I'll assume not, for now. He was actually drafted in last year's Rule 5 draft by Houston, but returned to Kansas City prior to the season as Houston decided they had too many LHP specialists. Yarbrough is a former Cardinals' third-round pick.

Note above that the only difference between Free Agent (C) and (D) is the C players have Major League experience.

As for the 40-Man Roster itself, the Reds currently have 43 players and need to dwindle that number down to 40 (or less) by November 20.

Free Agents Mike Lincoln, Russ Springer and Willie Bloomquist seem to be the perfect fits for that task.

Step 2 for me: find room for Matt Klinker, Doug Salinas, Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier at very least. I know some may be surprised by Salinas, but I'm pretty high on him. Conservatively though, the Reds will need to find 3-5 spots, especially if Danny Dorn is added. I suspect that will only happen if Gomes is out the door or the Reds will not be keeping either Laynce Nix or Jim Edmonds.

So let's assume four spots (though others may disagree on the fourth).

We can safely assume Aaron Harang's option won't be picked up. There's a good chance Corky Miller will again be outright assigned. I doubt the Reds pick up the Orlando Cabrera option. Jim Edmonds is likely to retire. So there's your four.

Sam LeCure and Matt Maloney are non-tender candidates. Further, Miguel Cairo may not be re-signed. There are three more possible spots. I'm guessing that Dorn and any outside OF possibility shall be tied to the futures of Nix and Gomes.

One last thing to consider: Homer Bailey, Carlos Fisher and (if healthy) Jose Arredondo will need to make the club next year. The three of them are out of options.

OK that's all I got for now. If anyone sees any additions/subtractions/corrections with the Rule 5 list, by all means let me know. I feel like it's pretty accurate, but given there are well over 275 players in the organization, I may have made a mistake or two with my database.

Bumping this great info, Brutus. Thanks!

Add Cairo to the 40 man, I'd think as well. That should be it for FA's, IMO.

7 spots
-Cairo
-Rhodes
-Cozart
-Frazier
= 3 more spots

Hotchkiss (org. pitcher of the year) has a strong case. So does Thompson if he can move to the bullpen. Another team could easily make that happen. I'll guess:

Hotchkiss
Thompson
Negron

[mdccclxix]

Didn't realize Hotchkiss and Rojas needed to be protected. Wouldn't be surprised if the Reds added both. Rojas is the kind of defender a major league team could make use of on its 25-man for a year.

Fingers crossed.

[mth123]

My list: Frazier, Cozey, Klinker, Carroll, and Horst

Negron has to be on there.