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View Poll Results: Should the Reds pick up Orlando Cabrera's option?

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  • Yes, Orlando Cabrera's intangibles are enough to warrant the $3.0M.

    16 13.33%
  • No, the money to keep him isn't justified. Paul Janish and/or Zack Cozart is enough insurance.

    104 86.67%
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Thread: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

  1. #46
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    I just looked Janish up on fangraphs and noticed that his uzr took a beating after playing mostly full time in August. He is now negative value in fielding in 2010.

    Uh oh.

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  3. #47
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Repeat
    Last edited by edabbs44; 09-28-2010 at 11:29 AM.

  4. #48
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    His range is still top notch as is his cannon for an arm. But I recall that stretch of playing, and there were like 3 straight games where he committed an "error". Some were quite questionable, but still...those errors are going to kill his defensive stats, right?
    2014 predictions:
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  5. #49
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Janish is a better defender than Cabrera at this point. It's not even close, IMO. I've been less than impressed with Cabrera's range this season. A few years ago he was one of the best defensive shortstops in the game but his range has really declined in the last few years based on what I've seen.
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 09-28-2010 at 12:55 PM.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  6. #50
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Where did the 5% number come from?
    It's my opinion.

    Mainly because, I would guess that we can can measure the other 90-95%. In any event, in now way, shape or form does it approach half or more.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  7. #51
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    His range is still top notch as is his cannon for an arm. But I recall that stretch of playing, and there were like 3 straight games where he committed an "error". Some were quite questionable, but still...those errors are going to kill his defensive stats, right?
    I would have to guess that errors would impact defensive statistics in some sort of negative manner.

  8. #52
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    It's my opinion.

    Mainly because, I would guess that we can can measure the other 90-95%. In any event, in now way, shape or form does it approach half or more.
    Not sure that I agree. A perfect example might be Jim Edmonds. If he truly had such an effect on Jay Bruce that turned his season around, can we actually say that we can just add 5% to his numbers? In this case, we would need to add about 5000% as a starting point.

  9. #53
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    It's my opinion.

    Mainly because, I would guess that we can can measure the other 90-95%. In any event, in now way, shape or form does it approach half or more.
    Ok. I was just curious because most of the time you throw out numbers there is a precise reason for that.

    I think the actual impact is a much larger percentage but is also much more difficult to define. There are too many moving and fluid parts to a baseball season that its difficult to assign a proper value to someone's intangible impact.

  10. #54
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    It's my opinion.

    Mainly because, I would guess that we can can measure the other 90-95%. In any event, in now way, shape or form does it approach half or more.
    Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.


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  11. #55
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I would have to guess that errors would impact defensive statistics in some sort of negative manner.
    Well, he was talking about UZR and I didn't know if that factored in errors or not. I thought that one just measured range or something. Oh well. Back to our regularly scheduled posting.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  12. #56
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Is Cozart ready to be the starting SS at the ML level? How's he compare to Janish?
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  13. #57
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Quote Originally Posted by Degenerate39 View Post
    Is Cozart ready to be the starting SS at the ML level? How's he compare to Janish?
    Hard to compare because Cozart had 553 official at bats at AAA. Janish has had 187 at bats in the NL. So Cozart has a much larger sample but in the minor leagues.

    Cozart had .255 BA/.310 OBP/.416 SLG/.726 OPS.
    Janish had .267 BA/.346 OBP/.401 SLG/.747 OPS.

    IMO Reds will be reluctant to start either of them at SS next year. Cabrera or a different veteran will start.

    I think Cozart could find himself at AAA next year to work on that .310 OBP.

  14. #58
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.

    Now that's an awesome analogy. Kudos.

  15. #59
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Ok. I was just curious because most of the time you throw out numbers there is a precise reason for that.

    I think the actual impact is a much larger percentage but is also much more difficult to define. There are too many moving and fluid parts to a baseball season that its difficult to assign a proper value to someone's intangible impact.
    5% sounded like a small number, therefore small = 5%.

    It's a small number, it's certainly nowhere near approaching a majority.

    Unless we're talking about Corky Miller.

    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  16. #60
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Should the Reds Exercise Orlando Cabrera's Option?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Well, he was talking about UZR and I didn't know if that factored in errors or not. I thought that one just measured range or something. Oh well. Back to our regularly scheduled posting.
    UZR gives you credit/penalty based on how many other players make that play. So an error on a ball most guys turn in to an out will ding your UZR pretty badly. But an error on a ball that most guys don't even get to won't hurt you much at all.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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