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Thread: Reds' 2010 magic number

  1. #1
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Reds' 2010 magic number

    125



    Hopefully this will not be a very short thread.

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    Re: Reds' magic number

    omg you just jinxed it
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  4. #3
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    Oh brother haha.
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    Bunn-O-matic max venable's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    hey, I just think it's nice to actually have a magic number.

    any combination of Reds wins and Cards losses means we win the division! let the countdown begin.
    For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism.

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    Re: Reds' magic number

    I put it up as my facebook status. Glad I calculated correctly.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    I thought 3 was the magic number?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA69pmhrBiE
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  8. #7
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    With Monday's win over the Brewers and St. Louis's win

    124

  9. #8
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    123!!!

  10. #9
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    If the Cards lose today will it drop to 122? How does that work
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  11. #10
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    Not to be a wet blanket, but the numbers here are not right. At best, the '123' can represent our magic number vs. the Cards. (I haven't double checked the math, but assuming it is right.)

    We also have a magic number vs. every other team in the division. Since the Cardinals are in second, our number vs. them is currently the highest. But it is quite possible for there to be a combined total of 123 Reds wins and Cardinal losses the rest of the year, and neither of those teams make the playoffs. What if the Cubs actually get hot, and pass up the Cardinals or the Reds? May seem unlikely right now, but there is a lot of baseball yet to play. Cubbies are only 5 or 6 games back.

    Magic numbers really only work well toward the end of the season when you are down to two or three teams.

    There are also several sites that do a 'playoff odds report'. This morning, before today's win, they listed the Reds as having a 34% chance of making the playoffs, and the Cardinals as having a 60% chance. The reason? Pythag records and win expectency based on pythag.

    See http://www.coolstandings.com/basebal...gs.asp?i=1.com

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php

    But I will say this: with how the Reds have been playing the last two weeks, it is hard to see them not having a really good chance to win the division. The Pirates, Astros, Brewers, and Cubs have looked terrible. The Cardinals look much better than the other teams, so it is natural to look at them as the only club that could beat the Reds.

    But things do change and shift throughout the season.
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    MBGrayson,

    You're essentially correct. The magic number assumes that its combined Reds wins with the team behind us losses.

    The magin number (vs. Cardinals) is 123
    (vs. Cubs) is 118
    (vs. Pirates) is 118
    (vs. Brewers) is 116
    (vs. Astros) is 115
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  13. #12
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    MBGrayson,

    You're essentially correct. The magic number assumes that its combined Reds wins with the team behind us losses.

    The magin number (vs. Cardinals) is 123
    (vs. Cubs) is 118
    (vs. Pirates) is 118
    (vs. Brewers) is 116
    (vs. Astros) is 115
    To be safe the Reds should just win another 123 games. That would give the Reds 146 wins, which would probably be sufficient.
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  14. #13
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    I feel like this thread is a really bad jinx... that is, if anyone is taking it seriously yet... someone kick me for bumping it before August
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  15. #14
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    121

  16. #15
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' magic number

    I was going to bump this when the Reds got it down to 50. That happened coming into the series but I didn't want to jinx. Now to undo the jinx by not trying to jinx, I bump this. The Reds magic number is 50. (So is the Cardinals but that's another story)


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