1. Reds' 2010 magic number

125

Hopefully this will not be a very short thread.

3. Re: Reds' magic number

omg you just jinxed it

4. Re: Reds' magic number

Oh brother haha.

5. Re: Reds' magic number

hey, I just think it's nice to actually have a magic number.

any combination of Reds wins and Cards losses means we win the division! let the countdown begin.

6. Re: Reds' magic number

I put it up as my facebook status. Glad I calculated correctly.

7. Re: Reds' magic number

I thought 3 was the magic number?

8. Re: Reds' magic number

With Monday's win over the Brewers and St. Louis's win

124

123!!!

10. Re: Reds' magic number

If the Cards lose today will it drop to 122? How does that work

11. Re: Reds' magic number

Not to be a wet blanket, but the numbers here are not right. At best, the '123' can represent our magic number vs. the Cards. (I haven't double checked the math, but assuming it is right.)

We also have a magic number vs. every other team in the division. Since the Cardinals are in second, our number vs. them is currently the highest. But it is quite possible for there to be a combined total of 123 Reds wins and Cardinal losses the rest of the year, and neither of those teams make the playoffs. What if the Cubs actually get hot, and pass up the Cardinals or the Reds? May seem unlikely right now, but there is a lot of baseball yet to play. Cubbies are only 5 or 6 games back.

Magic numbers really only work well toward the end of the season when you are down to two or three teams.

There are also several sites that do a 'playoff odds report'. This morning, before today's win, they listed the Reds as having a 34% chance of making the playoffs, and the Cardinals as having a 60% chance. The reason? Pythag records and win expectency based on pythag.

See http://www.coolstandings.com/basebal...gs.asp?i=1.com

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php

But I will say this: with how the Reds have been playing the last two weeks, it is hard to see them not having a really good chance to win the division. The Pirates, Astros, Brewers, and Cubs have looked terrible. The Cardinals look much better than the other teams, so it is natural to look at them as the only club that could beat the Reds.

But things do change and shift throughout the season.

12. Re: Reds' magic number

MBGrayson,

You're essentially correct. The magic number assumes that its combined Reds wins with the team behind us losses.

The magin number (vs. Cardinals) is 123
(vs. Cubs) is 118
(vs. Pirates) is 118
(vs. Brewers) is 116
(vs. Astros) is 115

13. Re: Reds' magic number

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red
MBGrayson,

You're essentially correct. The magic number assumes that its combined Reds wins with the team behind us losses.

The magin number (vs. Cardinals) is 123
(vs. Cubs) is 118
(vs. Pirates) is 118
(vs. Brewers) is 116
(vs. Astros) is 115
To be safe the Reds should just win another 123 games. That would give the Reds 146 wins, which would probably be sufficient.

14. Re: Reds' magic number

I feel like this thread is a really bad jinx... that is, if anyone is taking it seriously yet... someone kick me for bumping it before August

121

16. Re: Reds' magic number

I was going to bump this when the Reds got it down to 50. That happened coming into the series but I didn't want to jinx. Now to undo the jinx by not trying to jinx, I bump this. The Reds magic number is 50. (So is the Cardinals but that's another story)

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