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Thread: M-V-P!

  1. #1
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    M-V-P!

    Time to campaign for Joey Votto, though I think he has the award wrapped up. After all, the Rockies have been eliminated and CarGo and Tulo may split the vote for them. Albert Pujols is a very enticing candidate (as usual) but with the Cards' seven games out of first, he'll not get a ton of support.

    It seems Votto is the obvious candidate. Ryan Howard is the only guy that would get much mention this year for the Phillies, but no one is talking about him. Adrian Gonzalez probably deserves mention, but isn't having the statistical season that Votto is. The Giants have had more of a team effort (though Buster Posey is making a run at ROY).

    Votto is running .325 (2nd) - 37 (3rd) - 111 (3rd). CarGo and Pujols both have comparable statistics, but again, the fact their teams are out of the playoff race already, right or wrong, is usually sufficient grounds to not win the award.

    So is this the first Reds' player to be an MVP since Barry in '95? Sure looks like it.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #2
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: M-V-P!

    Joey has to be a lock, or else the whole HOF voting system needs to be torn down.

    The award usually goes to the best offensive player on a playoff team, unless another player is head-and-shoulders better than the rest of the league. Votto was on par with Pujols this season, and CarGo wasn't that much better than either of them.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  4. #3
    Member Phhhl's Avatar
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    Re: M-V-P!

    It's going to be Votto, unless Charlie Manuel has a vote.

  5. #4
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: M-V-P!

    Joey has the MVP award locked up. He had just as good, if not better, season than Pujols (and both were better than CarGo unless you decide to ignore park effects). This divisional title belongs to the Reds and this MVP award belongs to Joey Votto.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  6. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: M-V-P!

    I'm still partial to the WAR framework. I might use the playoff/team/story type stuff as an absolute tie-breaker, but I'd rather just give it to the guy who produced the most.

    Here are the top 10 for both Fangraphs and B-Ref. They use the same basic WAR framework, but use different data inputs. Some notable differences are Pujols's offense (no clue what's going on there) and Votto and Zimmerman's defense. In any event, all this tells us is that its pretty much a dead head statistically among the leaders.

    Code:
    Rk	Name		Team	Bat	 Fld	Rep	  Pos	RAR	WAR	Dollars
    1	Votto		Cin	58.3	 3.0	21.2	-10.8	71.7	7.4	$29.6
    2	Zimmerman	WSH	32.5	15.9	20.1	  1.9	70.4	7.3	$29.1
    3	Pujols		STL	56.8	 2.2	22.9	-11.6	70.3	7.3	$29.0
    4	Holliday	STL	42.5	 7.7	22.0	 -6.8	65.3	6.8	$27.0
    5	Tulowitzki	COL	31.2	 4.7	17.0	  5.3	58.2	6.0	$24.1
    6	C Gonzalez	COL	44.4	-4.9	20.9	 -3.1	57.4	5.9	$23.7
    7	Weeks		MIL	27.4	-0.2	24.2	  2.2	53.6	5.5	$22.1
    8	A Gonzalez	SD	37.6	 5.3	22.4	-11.7	53.5	5.5	$22.1
    9	Torres		SFG	17.6	18.4	18.3	 -1.3	53.0	5.5	$21.9
    10	Johnson		ARI	25.0	 4.0	21.8	  1.9	52.7	5.4	$21.8
    
    Rk	Name		oWAR	dWAR	WAR
    1	Pujols		7.2	-0.2	7.0
    2	A Gonzalez	5.4	 0.7	6.1
    3	Votto		6.7	-0.7	6.0
    4	Huff		4.1	 1.3	5.4
    5	Tulowitski	4.3	 1.1	5.4
    6	Holliday	5.2	 0.1	5.3
    7	Zimmerman	5.1	 0.1	5.2
    8	Werth		4.9	 0.0	4.9
    9	C Gonzalez	4.9	-0.2	4.7
    10	McCann		4.4	 0.3	4.7
    Considering that...
    - Award voters are loathe to give guys who have already won it before (no Pujols)
    - The Rockies missed the playoffs (no Cargo & Tulo)
    - Award voters don't fully appreciate depressive park effects (no A Gonzalez)
    - Award voters don't realize that Ryan Zimmerman is really freaking good (no Zimmerman)
    - Award voters like to go with the best storyline, when possible...

    I'd say Votto has it in the bag and it won't be particularly close.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-29-2010 at 05:43 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #6
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: M-V-P!

    Signed, sealed, delivered. Congrats Joey!


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