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Thread: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

  1. #16
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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    My question would be to you, if Upton understands the strikezone better than Stanton does, what makes you believe that Stanton is going to improve upon his approach and lead to better numbers than Upton has been able to do thus far? In the minors, Upton had far superior K and BB rates than Stanton did. He did so in the majors at the same age as well and in the majors we even know how often he was chasing 'bad' pitches and Stanton is doing it at a substantially higher rate too.
    A few things:

    • Set up in the box (nice low center of gravity, nice balance)
    • Swing path/full field approach
    • Easy, easy power -- which will allow him to make adjustments without becoming much less of a threat

    In all these respects, I like Stanton better than Upton. I could easily be wrong when all is said and done. But I'm fairly certain we'll see Stanton make more progress in years 2 and 3 than Upton has.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  3. #17
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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    I saw Stanton excuse-me swing one 430+ feet.

    He has power he hasn't used yet.

    Upton's approach hasn't changed since he came up. Stanton's changed across the first half season he was in the majors.
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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    I have a huge mancrush on Stanton. I've watched him in the minors and in the big leagues. This kid is legit. He has such a great work ethic, it's unreal.

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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I guess I would ask, where you see that coming from? His minor league time showed that he is very likely to strike out at a very high rate. I am a scouting guy as well, but when it comes to strikeouts, guys typically don't make large strides in the rate in which they strike out. Right now, if Stanton cut off 5%, a substantial cut, he is still considered poor in terms of making contact with pitches he swings at.

    My question would be to you, if Upton understands the strikezone better than Stanton does, what makes you believe that Stanton is going to improve upon his approach and lead to better numbers than Upton has been able to do thus far? In the minors, Upton had far superior K and BB rates than Stanton did. He did so in the majors at the same age as well and in the majors we even know how often he was chasing 'bad' pitches and Stanton is doing it at a substantially higher rate too.
    Doug, I both agree and disagree with you on Stanton.

    I had the fortune of watching him 3 games this year in Atlanta, one earlier in the season after being called-up and two recently.

    While I have a limited number of games to go by, the difference between early in the year and late in the season was night and day. He was overmatched early with a big, looping swing. He was very susceptible to the off-speed pitch and getting abused by it. He had 31 Ks in his first 80 PAs, as you mentioned.

    But over the course of the season, he really improved his discipline. His drop in strikeouts was not precipitous by any means, rather gradual, but it got slightly better almost every month. There was a report saying he was setting the pitching machine to throw him over 200 sliders from 50 feet every day to work on his susceptibility to the breaking stuff.

    I think Stanton is going to be an absolute holy terror. You have absolutely every right to question his discipline, but mark my words, this kid is going to cut it.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    I have to agree with those on Stanton > Upton. I know the numbers are saying something different but the brief glimpse I have seen of him he is superior to Upton. I agree with lollipopcurve on this one I like his set up and approach much, much better especially his balance and willingness to go to all fields.
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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I have to agree with those on Stanton > Upton. I know the numbers are saying something different but the brief glimpse I have seen of him he is superior to Upton. I agree with lollipopcurve on this one I like his set up and approach much, much better especially his balance and willingness to go to all fields.
    2010:
    Code:
    Player	Pulled	Middle	Oppo	Pulled	Middle	Oppo
    Upton	94	199	58	27%	57%	17%
    Stanton	72	125	40	30%	53%	17%

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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    And, once again, doug, we like Stanton because he improved over the course of the half season he was in the big leagues.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    And, once again, doug, we like Stanton because he improved over the course of the half season he was in the big leagues.
    Nothing in my most recent posts says anything about that at all. It just showed that Stanton isn't going the other way more than Upton is.

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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    Nothing in my most recent posts says anything about that at all. It just showed that Stanton isn't going the other way more than Upton is.
    Care to say which of these players you like to have the better career, and why? So far as I can tell, you really don't have a scouting take on either player, just a data recap.
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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Care to say which of these players you like to have the better career, and why? So far as I can tell, you really don't have a scouting take on either player, just a data recap.
    Well, the scouting take is within some of the data I have posted. Spray charts are scouting. Plate discipline is scouting. Just because it uses numbers doesn't mean it isn't scouting.

    As for the two guys.... here are my takes on them:

    Mike Stanton - Might have the best raw power in baseball. The kid has serious, serious strength. He isn't slow, but he isn't a fast guy either. Solid defense, decent arm. At the plate, chases the ball out of the zone at times, struggles on change ups.

    Justin Upton - Plus raw power, tons of bat speed. Long swing. Has some speed to him and an absolute cannon for an arm, but he takes plays off in the outfield at times. Could be a better defender if he wanted to be. At the plate, he too struggles with the change up, but hits other pitches evenly.

    As for the better career, its tough to say. The two profile pretty similarly. Both are very good athletes with light tower power, but long swings who struggle with the change up so far in their careers. I think Upton has a little better plate discipline than Giancarlo-Cruz does (that is Giancarlo-Cruz Michael Stanton), though is slightly behind in the power department but it isn't by much. Same position played. Upton could be a better defender, but that doesn't mean he is or will be.

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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    As for the better career, its tough to say. The two profile pretty similarly.
    So you're unwilling to make a call on which guy you like better?

    If so, that's fine. At the same time, it's a bit judgmental of you to snipe at those who have an opinion.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    Quote Originally Posted by cinreds21 View Post
    I have a huge mancrush on Stanton. I've watched him in the minors and in the big leagues. This kid is legit. He has such a great work ethic, it's unreal.
    Interesting. Great talent + great work ethic = MVP candidate. It's why Joey Votto's in line for his first this year.

    Care to elaborate on what Stanton does that seperates him? What kind of work does he put in that, say, your normal MiL ballplayer doesn't?

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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    So you're unwilling to make a call on which guy you like better?

    If so, that's fine. At the same time, it's a bit judgmental of you to snipe at those who have an opinion.
    The thing is, what people were saying wasn't backed up by the numbers IMO. It isn't that I just thought, "oh, you guys are wrong", its that the numbers said that some things that were said was at the very least a little misleading.

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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    There are some legit names on that list.
    There's alot of good players on that list.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

    I get that Stanton Ks alot. But is managing the zone is a real limitation for him?

    I throw this out there as part of the question-what's the difference between Stanton and Greg Halman ( a guy whose future clearly is in doubt due to his approach at the plate) because clearly there is?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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