Dave Sappelt and Devin Mesoraco make Baseball America's Top 20 Southern Lg list

[dougdirt]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...0/2610759.html

Devin Mesoraco came in at #6, much to my surprise, behind Dee Gordon. I just don't get that one. Gordon doesn't hold a positional advantage on Mesoraco at all (Gordon is a shortstop for those who are unaware) and I can't believe there is a single person who believes that he will actually come close to out hitting Mesoraco (Gordon is 150 lbs soaking wet in concrete).

Dave Sappelt, the leagues MVP, came in at #15 in the league. Good showing for him, I was thinking he might crack the list at the end, so coming in a little better than that was nice.

[lollipopcurve]

Nice to see Sappelt recognized. Pleased to hear he's a plus defender with a solid arm, too. If he can continue to show some extra-base sock, he may be the answer in LF and at leadoff come 2012.

[edabbs44]

There are some legit names on that list.

[Screwball]

Thanks for the link and info Doug, but small correction - Mes came in at #7.

[JaxRed]

How crazy is Stanton going to be next year or so? Between minors and major he hit 43 homers at age 20. In Sep he hit 8 homers, and hit .318

[dougdirt]

How crazy is Stanton going to be next year or so? Between minors and major he hit 43 homers at age 20. In Sep he hit 8 homers, and hit .318

I still worry about his strikeouts. He was very young, but he also struck out 31% of the time he walked to the plate this year and walked just 8.6% of the time he walked to the plate. The walk rate is fine, but in context with the strikeout rate, it isn't all that good. Strikeouts were a concern in the minors as well, though he has always been young for his level (very young in some cases). He expands his zone quite a bit right now. Like our own Drew Stubbs, he also struggles to make contact on pitches within the zone, ranking 16th worst among the 304 players with at least 250 PA this season (Stubbs was 11th worst). He was the 9th worst in terms of contact on swings made at just 70.1% (for example, Stubbs was 16th at 72.2%). Now of course, Stanton is incredibly young.

Historically speaking though, Stanton campares like this to other players between 1960-now with at least 200 PA in a season at age 20 or younger (62 players - which means we are talking about a very elite group of players):

K% (K/PA):Worst among all players, 2 full % ahead of the next worst player (Justin Upton). With that said, the player at #5 on that list is Miguel Cabrera who has gone from 24.3% at age 20 to 14.7% this past season. Of course Cabrera also struck out just 16.4% in the minors compared to 26.7% for Stanton in the minors.
BB% (BB/PA):17th best, surrounded by guys like Ken Griffey Jr and Rickey Henderson.
IsoP: 2nd best, trailing just Bob Horner in 1978.

I think Stanton could go on to become great, or he could be a version of Justin Upton that has flashed of absolute greatness, but the high strikeout rate is going to continue to hold him back.

[lollipopcurve]

I like Stanton's approach better than Upton's (which is not to say I don't think Upton can become a force). Stanton gets surprisingly small at the plate for a big guy, and he keeps his swing fairly compact. He goes to right center easily. And his power is off the scale. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't eventually climb into the top 5 in MVP voting a few times.

[Scrap Irony]

I agree, Lollipop. Stanton's swing is a bit long, but he's really tall, so it makes sense. He's willing to be aggressive, and, as pitchers begin to fear him, he'll get the walks.

If I could have any young LF in baseball, I'd pick Stanton. (Heyward is close, but Staton's power gives him the edge, IMO.)

[RedLegsToday]

Between minors and major he hit 43 homers at age 20.

Between minors and majors in 2001 at age 21, Dunn hit something like 49 (edit: 51, actually) homeruns, didn't he? And to hear some people talk, he's the suckiest suck that ever sucked.

[Scrap Irony]

Stanton's an upper echelon RF if all continues to progress. His arm is super and he has enough wheels to get to what he needs to.

In other words, he's Adam Dunn without the defensive problems.

[dougdirt]

I like Stanton's approach better than Upton's (which is not to say I don't think Upton can become a force). Stanton gets surprisingly small at the plate for a big guy, and he keeps his swing fairly compact. He goes to right center easily. And his power is off the scale. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't eventually climb into the top 5 in MVP voting a few times.

At the same age, Upton struck out less and walked more than Stanton did this year. Power wise, he was slightly ahead of Upton at the same age, but Upton is a plus power guy in his own right.

[lollipopcurve]

At the same age, Upton struck out less and walked more than Stanton did this year. Power wise, he was slightly ahead of Upton at the same age, but Upton is a plus power guy in his own right.

You're a numbers guy, Doug. We're speaking different languages here.

[dougdirt]

You're a numbers guy, Doug. We're speaking different languages here.

Ok, lets go with scouting then. You say he has a better approach. At the age of 20, Justin Upton expanded his zone less than Mike Stanton at age 20. He did so by a large margin. Certainly approach is a little more than expanding/knowing the strikezone, but it certainly starts there and that is certainly the biggest part of it. I just can't see making the argument that Stanton has better plate discipline than Upton does now or even at age 20 given what we know. Stanton chases pitches outside of the zone 33% more than Upton did at the same age.

[lollipopcurve]

Ok, lets go with scouting then. You say he has a better approach. At the age of 20, Justin Upton expanded his zone less than Mike Stanton at age 20. He did so by a large margin. Certainly approach is a little more than expanding/knowing the strikezone, but it certainly starts there and that is certainly the biggest part of it. I just can't see making the argument that Stanton has better plate discipline than Upton does now or even at age 20 given what we know. Stanton chases pitches outside of the zone 33% more than Upton did at the same age.

Take a look at how much progress Upton has shown since the point in time at which you are isolating his performance. What I am saying is this -- I like Stanton's approach -- and I don't use this term the same way you do (check my my first post on this) -- to allow him to get better pretty quickly. My guess is that his trajectory in seasons 2 and 3 will outstrip Upton's and eventually catapault him into being one of the best players in the league.

[dougdirt]

Take a look at how much progress Upton has shown since the point in time at which you are isolating his performance. What I am saying is this -- I like Stanton's approach -- and I don't use this term the same way you do (check my my first post on this) -- to allow him to get better pretty quickly. My guess is that his trajectory in seasons 2 and 3 will outstrip Upton's and eventually catapault him into being one of the best players in the league.

I guess I would ask, where you see that coming from? His minor league time showed that he is very likely to strike out at a very high rate. I am a scouting guy as well, but when it comes to strikeouts, guys typically don't make large strides in the rate in which they strike out. Right now, if Stanton cut off 5%, a substantial cut, he is still considered poor in terms of making contact with pitches he swings at.

My question would be to you, if Upton understands the strikezone better than Stanton does, what makes you believe that Stanton is going to improve upon his approach and lead to better numbers than Upton has been able to do thus far? In the minors, Upton had far superior K and BB rates than Stanton did. He did so in the majors at the same age as well and in the majors we even know how often he was chasing 'bad' pitches and Stanton is doing it at a substantially higher rate too.