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Thread: Not worried this offseason

  1. #1
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Not worried this offseason

    For the first time in a long while I'm not worried about how the front office is going to handle things this winter.I'm sure there will be no downgrades to this team and I'm even optimistic that we won't have to hear the whole"come and we will build it"talk like we've heard a lot of in the past.I really can see Walt upgrading LF considering that it looks as if that might of been his thinking by bringing in Edmonds.SS, C and the BP will also require a bit of attention or at the very least some minor tweaking.


    At the very worst we'll bring back the same team that notched 91 wins and brought home a NL Central division title.So how worried are you guys that a few bad move could set us back or is everyone confident that the 2011 Reds will have a few new weapons to help defend our title?
    Last edited by Captain Hook; 10-12-2010 at 01:58 PM.

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    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Not worried this offseason

    Do you think Edmonds will come back next year? I thought he has been leaning towards retirement?
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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  4. #3
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: Not worried this offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990 View Post
    Do you think Edmonds will come back next year? I thought he has been leaning towards retirement?
    No I don't.The fact that Walt went out and got him leads me to believe that the feeling was that the current OF situation needed an upgrade.I don't see how that feeling could've changed.
    Last edited by Captain Hook; 10-12-2010 at 03:55 PM.

  5. #4
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    Re: Not worried this offseason

    I'm actually quite worried about this offseason. Many Red players are unlikely to repeat 2010, chief among them our erstwhile leader and third baseman. Some Red players shouldn't be brought back because of 2010, such as Cabrera.

    I trust Jocketty, but worry that the status quo will be seen as "good enough" when, IMO, they should really focus on improving at least four spots on the current team (RP, C, LF, SS).

    The good news is that the team, as currently constructed, has superfluous starting pitching and enough good prospects in AAA to make a couple deals. Not only that, it looks as if the division is going backwards, while Cincinnati treads water. St. Louis has holes, no cash, and already whispers of significant injuries. Milwaukee needs starting pitching, but there's little to be had on the free agent market. Chicago needs to get rid of millions in salary before it retools. Houston and Pittsburgh have some talent, but not enough experience.

    I hope Jocketty is very active this winter. Unfortunately, I suspect, because of success in 2010 and the Central division, he'll be very quiet.
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  6. #5
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Not worried this offseason

    I'm not sure that anyone should have any concerns at this point.

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    Re: Not worried this offseason

    This is the sad reality of baseball. The Reds have the players to trade to get a player like Hanley Ramirez, but cannot afford him. Priority #1 needs to be getting Votto signed to a LTC. Hopefully Bruce can have a breakout year, but 3B,SS and left field should be an immediate concern.

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Not worried this offseason

    I'd echo SI's concerns. I think back to the Mariners mistake a few years back. I'm not convinced that this is a 91 win team as constructed. Sitting pat and simply bringing people back would be a mistake. I think we'd still be competitive, but it would be a giant missed opportunity.

    With the current state of our younger players' salaries, 2011 likely represents the the peak of this competitive window. I hope Walt capitalizes on our organizational depth and truly improves the team. It may require a bit of creativity, but go get a Zack Greinke or Matt Kemp. Identify the 6-8 guys who are really the core of this thing and don't get too caught up on getting bargains.

    We have a ton of value in AAA or on the fringes of the major league roster that we simply don't have room for. While some depth is helpful, at some point it's simply a waste. It's like spending $100 on 5 dinners from TGI Fridays when it's just you and your wife out to eat. You've only got so much room. Upgrade to the steak house. Or at least spend the extra cash on a nice bottle of wine instead of another 2 orders of onion rings you can't eat.

    Convert some of that AAA, blocked-major leaguer value (Alonso, Dorn, Valaika, Fransisco, Balentien (FA?), Maloney, Klinker, LeCure, Burton, Herrera, etc.) in to some more impact talent on the 25 man roster. Luckily, that kind of trade is Jocketty's specialty. I hope we see it in action this winter. Maybe we could do something with the Dodgers built around Phillips...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Not worried this offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'd echo SI's concerns. I think back to the Mariners mistake a few years back. I'm not convinced that this is a 91 win team as constructed. Sitting pat and simply bringing people back would be a mistake. I think we'd still be competitive, but it would be a giant missed opportunity.

    With the current state of our younger players' salaries, 2011 likely represents the the peak of this competitive window. I hope Walt capitalizes on our organizational depth and truly improves the team. It may require a bit of creativity, but go get a Zack Greinke or Matt Kemp. Identify the 6-8 guys who are really the core of this thing and don't get too caught up on getting bargains.

    We have a ton of value in AAA or on the fringes of the major league roster that we simply don't have room for. While some depth is helpful, at some point it's simply a waste. It's like spending $100 on 5 dinners from TGI Fridays when it's just you and your wife out to eat. You've only got so much room. Upgrade to the steak house. Or at least spend the extra cash on a nice bottle of wine instead of another 2 orders of onion rings you can't eat.

    Convert some of that AAA, blocked-major leaguer value (Alonso, Dorn, Valaika, Fransisco, Balentien (FA?), Maloney, Klinker, LeCure, Burton, Herrera, etc.) in to some more impact talent on the 25 man roster. Luckily, that kind of trade is Jocketty's specialty. I hope we see it in action this winter. Maybe we could do something with the Dodgers built around Phillips...
    Not sure I agree with the bolded. Who do you see potentially departing after 2011? Phillips, Cordero and Arroyo is who I can think of off the top of my head, and Arroyo sounds like he will be back.

    I am guessing we still see (if we want to) the following key players from 2011returning in 2012: Votto, Rolen, Bruce, Stubbs, Hanigan, Volquez, Cueto, Homer, Chapman, Leake, Wood, Arroyo, Masset, Ondrusek, Smith, Bray, etc. If Heisey is a key performer in 2011, he will be back as well.

    Then you have guys like Mesoraco, Grandal and Alonso ready to either move up or get dealt for help at the missing positions. Not to mention the potential surplus at SP which can be dealt.

    Now I obviously haven't broken down the money and potential FA guys, but wouldn't you think that 2012, with the additional maturation of these players, would have more upside?

  10. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Not worried this offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Not sure I agree with the bolded. Who do you see potentially departing after 2011? Phillips, Cordero and Arroyo is who I can think of off the top of my head, and Arroyo sounds like he will be back.

    I am guessing we still see (if we want to) the following key players from 2011returning in 2012: Votto, Rolen, Bruce, Stubbs, Hanigan, Volquez, Cueto, Homer, Chapman, Leake, Wood, Arroyo, Masset, Ondrusek, Smith, Bray, etc. If Heisey is a key performer in 2011, he will be back as well.

    Then you have guys like Mesoraco, Grandal and Alonso ready to either move up or get dealt for help at the missing positions. Not to mention the potential surplus at SP which can be dealt.

    Now I obviously haven't broken down the money and potential FA guys, but wouldn't you think that 2012, with the additional maturation of these players, would have more upside?
    I think you might be right for 2012. But Cueto, Volquez, Stubbs, Bruce, Homer, etc. are going to start getting expensive soon. With all these good players entering arbitration at the same time and relatively few fixed value contracts, we could see $30M of arb increases or more in a single year. That's hard to manage. I'd have to spend more time on the data and run some projections, but I think my suggestion regarding the approach is the same either way. Trade some of our good depth for an impact player or two.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #10
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Not worried this offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think you might be right for 2012. But Cueto, Volquez, Stubbs, Bruce, Homer, etc. are going to start getting expensive soon. With all these good players entering arbitration at the same time and relatively few fixed value contracts, we could see $30M of arb increases or more in a single year. That's hard to manage. I'd have to spend more time on the data and run some projections, but I think my suggestion regarding the approach is the same either way. Trade some of our good depth for an impact player or two.
    Most importantly, this is where the fans come in. Go to games, buy shirts, eat like slobs at the games, watch games in TV, buy hats, visit the HOF, spend money while enjoying this team. Then players who "get expensive" are less of a concern. We are entering a new era where money could be less of a concern. So when Cincy has to make a decision on 7 talents, 4 get signed, 2 get dealt for young talent and 1 walks for comp picks. Welcome to the majors, Reds fans.

    But if there are still excuses even after a division championship, well then I guess you may be right.

    On a related but slightly controversial topic, this is also where Cincy need to start thinking about need when drafting guys. Not overdrafting, but considering positions in the draft. If there is a solid college 3B sitting there for them to take, you have to consider the franchises current position. Middle infielders as well. If the top 3 on my board are 1b, 3b and 2b in that order but are all in a similar tier, I am wiping off the 1b.

  12. #11
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Not worried this offseason

    It was great to read in the attendance thread that Castellini intends to put the profits from increased attendance right back in to the team. Just like any business, that is how you grow. Sure, markets have some inherent limitations, but I don't see any reason why the Reds can't average 30k a night. It's a function of putting a winning team on the field. This isn't Miami or Tampa Bay, where there just aren't enough people who care. It's a town who is reluctant to spend their hard earned dough on a mediocre product. Continue to cycle profits back in to team, make the product better, and you'll get in to a virtuous cycle.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #12
    HS Athletic Director alexad's Avatar
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    We have an owner who wants to win and a GM who knows how to build winners. Kudos to both for not trading away the entire system for junk this year just because we were in contention. We have to realize this team was good but totally ready for the big time. The playoff experience and the way it ended will MAKE this team very hungry to get back and make a legit run.

    Walt will use the powerful chips we have to build this team. I would expect some movement. I would not be surprised to see some pitching moved yet get a big time arm also. We have a ton of talent to get a big time LF and a big time ARM. Janish is our SS for next year. His glove is golden and will make up for any lack of hitting. I would be happy with .260 out of him.

    Bruce is still very young and next year will be his break out year. Stubbs will develop into a natural leadoff guy. He has potential to be a 30-30 guy.
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