Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 18

Thread: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    West Side (No Diggity)
    Posts
    1,052

    Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    Before the hot stove starts heating up, I want to take a second to ask for some intelligent guesses on the Reds payroll constraints.

    That means... estimating the arbitration cases.

    Votto is the big one.
    Cueto and Volquez are also due for arb.
    And Bruce will likely be a Super Two arb guy.

    What in the wide wide world of sports will these guys make next season?

    I've asked several times on local sports blogs for those "in the know" to hazard a guess and I haven't been replied to. So I ask Red Zone.

    My guesses are below and are at least somewhat based on my quick study for comps in this chart from last year.

    http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.p...=599&Itemid=72

    So... here goes. Chime in.

    Votto = $10 mill
    Cueto = $3.5
    Volquez = $3
    Bruce = $3
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Overlooking GABP
    Posts
    4,467

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    I think the Reds will lock up one or both of the Votto/Bruce tandem to long term deal. If not, my guesses are as follows.

    Votto $11 million
    Cueto $3 million
    Volquez 2.5 million
    Bruce 4 million

  4. #3
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Posts
    3,583

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    $10-11M seems a little high for Votto. I keep seeing $7M+ for him.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  5. #4
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Indianapolis
    Posts
    6,429

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    I thought the Reds waited long enough on Bruce to avoid Super Two?
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    West Side (No Diggity)
    Posts
    1,052

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I thought the Reds waited long enough on Bruce to avoid Super Two?
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/0...-expected.html

    Looking like it was not long enough.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  7. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    1,641

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    $10-11M seems a little high for Votto. I keep seeing $7M+ for him.
    I'll tell you what.....If you're reds management, I would hate to be the one who drew the task of arguing against Joey Votto in arbitration.

    I guess you could complain that he didn't lead the league in steals.

    I don't Jocketty will Bowden this one and low ball the player. At least that's what I tell myself. Bob has remade this team and they want to be an organization that players want to play for.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  8. #7
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Posts
    4,228

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    $10-11M seems a little high for Votto. I keep seeing $7M+ for him.
    Yep. His ceiling appears to be $9M.

    Remember that most players agree before they go to arbitration. I'm guessing both Votto and Bruce get locked up long term each with a lower than expected 2011 salary.

    Votto- $5.5M
    Bruce - $2.5M
    Cueto - $3M
    Volquez - $1.5M

    Volquez is coming off of surgery and a 50 day suspension. His next suspension is for a year. That means more than his numbers.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  9. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    West Side (No Diggity)
    Posts
    1,052

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    $10-11M seems a little high for Votto. I keep seeing $7M+ for him.
    If Howard can get $10 mill in arb his first year, I don't think $10 is high for Votto.

    EDIT: Then again... this writer and comparison chart thinks it will be closer to $7.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/0...11-salary.html
    Last edited by I(heart)Freel; 10-22-2010 at 10:00 PM.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  10. #9
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Posts
    4,228

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    If Howard can get $10 mill in arb his first year, I don't think $10 is high for Votto.

    EDIT: Then again... this writer and comparison chart thinks it will be closer to $7.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/0...11-salary.html
    Phillies always pay their guys too much, and it was when salaries were higher overall. That partially explains why he got so much.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  11. #10
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,023

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    Howard also had 58 HR and 149 RBI. Votto had 21 fewer HR and 46 fewer RBI. While their overall offensive value is comparable, and Votto's overall value superior due to better defense, I'd be shocked if an arbitrator went with the WAR figures in the face of such a massive gap is the sexy counting stats.

    If it goes through arb, I'd put Votto on $7.5M.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #11
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Posts
    3,583

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    I'll tell you what.....If you're reds management, I would hate to be the one who drew the task of arguing against Joey Votto in arbitration.

    I guess you could complain that he didn't lead the league in steals.

    I don't Jocketty will Bowden this one and low ball the player. At least that's what I tell myself. Bob has remade this team and they want to be an organization that players want to play for.
    You may be right. Unfortunately for Votto, counting stats count too (AND the time he's missed) will also count in an arbitration hearing.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Volquez - $1.5M

    Volquez is coming off of surgery and a 50 day suspension. His next suspension is for a year. That means more than his numbers.
    Good point. $1.5M might not happen but, if it does, the 50 day suspension would likely help the Reds.
    Last edited by redsfandan; 10-22-2010 at 10:40 PM.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  13. #12
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    Tampa, FL
    Posts
    6,071

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    I'll admit I know zero about the arbitration process, but could someone tell me how Jay Bruce gets a raise?

    He's had 4 good months in 3 years.

  14. #13
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Indianapolis
    Posts
    6,429

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    Quote Originally Posted by Dom Heffner View Post
    I'll admit I know zero about the arbitration process, but could someone tell me how Jay Bruce gets a raise?

    He's had 4 good months in 3 years.
    Learn more about the process?
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  15. #14
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    West Side (No Diggity)
    Posts
    1,052

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    Quick update on this...

    JFay finally answered this question in the paper today. His guesses are later in this article:

    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...l-get-it-right

    I'd still be surprised with $3 mill for Bruce. But others are reasonable?

    Helps put this offseason's move in the proper light, I think.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  16. #15
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,567

    Re: Arbitration Figures - The 2011 Great Unknown

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Howard also had 58 HR and 149 RBI. Votto had 21 fewer HR and 46 fewer RBI. While their overall offensive value is comparable, and Votto's overall value superior due to better defense, I'd be shocked if an arbitrator went with the WAR figures in the face of such a massive gap is the sexy counting stats.

    If it goes through arb, I'd put Votto on $7.5M.
    Agreed wholeheartedly. The Arbitration panel is still pretty old school (as is the Elias rankings). Votto wouldn't be awarded nearly as much as Howard got.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25