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View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

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  • Junior Arias

    0 0%
  • Brad Boxberger

    0 0%
  • Daniel Corcino

    0 0%
  • Jonathan Correa

    0 0%
  • Zack Cozart

    26 24.30%
  • Danny Dorn

    2 1.87%
  • Juan Duran

    3 2.80%
  • Juan Francisco

    32 29.91%
  • Todd Frazier

    31 28.97%
  • Ismael Guillon

    0 0%
  • Jacob Johnson

    0 0%
  • Donnie Joseph

    2 1.87%
  • Ryan LaMarre

    0 0%
  • Kyle Lotzkar

    3 2.80%
  • Felix Perez

    0 0%
  • David Sappelt

    3 2.80%
  • Neftali Soto

    1 0.93%
  • Ronald Torreyes

    3 2.80%
  • Chris Valaika

    1 0.93%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

  1. #16
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Francisco at 7, Cozart at 8, Sappelt at 9, Frazier at 10, all very close.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    I haven't lost yet!

    I'M INVINCIBLE!

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  4. #18
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I continue to vote Frazier. Everybody's got warts at this point but Frazier's are more of the "probably won't be a stud" variety. I've not seen anybody question his ability to stick in LF nor major concerns about his bat. Put another way, I think he's got the highest floor of anybody on the list at this point, just ahead of Cozart who's glove already plays.
    I went with Frazier for similar reasons. I fully expect a bounceback season from Frazier in 2011.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #19
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    One thing I notice about Frazier is that his OPS has steadily dropped every year. We'll see what he can do repeating the AAA level. But Francisco simply outperforms him and at a younger age.

  6. #20
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    One thing I notice about Frazier is that his OPS has steadily dropped every year. We'll see what he can do repeating the AAA level. But Francisco simply outperforms him and at a younger age.
    Agree. I think people put too much weight on Frazier's performance at Billings and Dayton and picture him with .900 OPS in Cincy. Those numbers were from a well prepared college player against a league that just wasn't as advanced as he was. As Frazier has climbed the ladder, that OPS has become more ordinary. If he were a sure thing in the middle infield every day, I'd' have him at number 2 or 3, but as a LF he's pretty much an interchangeable part (and that assumes we don't see another reduction in productivity as he advances from AAA to the majors which is actually a pretty optimistic assumption). I'd like to see him at 3B every day in AAA, but until he does that, we just don't know about that. I'd rather see him as a 400 PA super sub who plays 6 positions (1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, RF) then settle in as a run of the mill LF who struggles to OPS in the .775 to .800 range. As many say in the Gomes thread, those are easy to find (the Giants picked-up two guys like that on the waiver wire during the 2010 season) and there isn't much value there IMO. I think he'll be a decent major league bench guy and that isn't to be looked down upon, its just the Reds have guys who have a better fit of skillset to position (Cozart, Joseph, Alonso maybe even Sappelt), higher ceilings (Hamilton, Y-Rod, Duran) or star potential (Mesoraco, Chapman) and I just find it hard to rate guys like Francisco and Frazier, who may not be able to handle any position that the bat can justify, ahead of them.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-26-2010 at 07:36 PM.
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  7. #21
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    How clear was it, really?

    Frazier had a better OBP. Francisco had the lead in iso. Put it together, and yes Francisco had about 100 points better OPS, but there's a chance a lot of that is wiped out by defense as Francisco committed 13 errors while Frazier committed only 5.

    Considering the whole package, I don't think Francisco was clearly better at all. In fact, including defense, I think Frazier had a slightly better year and this coming from a guy who hasn't been on the Frazier bandwagon, to be perfectly honest.
    Francisco had an .890 AAA OPS. Frazier's was .781.

    Looking at the whole package, I don't think last year was close. Francisco was quite successful at AAA. Frazier struggled there.

    Frazier had fewer errors because the Reds put him in left field.

    Really, now, one can argue Frazier has a better overall chance at major league success. But last year - not even close.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-26-2010 at 11:56 PM.

  8. #22
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Francisco had an .890 AAA OPS. Frazier's was .781.

    Looking at the whole package, I don't think last year was close. Francisco was quite successful at AAA. Frazier struggled there.

    Frazier had fewer errors because the Reds put him in left field.

    Really, now, one can argue Frazier has a better overall chance at major league success. But last year - not even close.
    The last part of your reply is truly what matters though isn't it? I think the two guys are close, but it is more because of that tremendous upside that Francisco has in his bat, not because of where he is today.

  9. #23
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Francisco had an .890 AAA OPS. Frazier's was .781.

    Looking at the whole package, I don't think last year was close. Francisco was quite successful at AAA. Frazier struggled there.

    Frazier had fewer errors because the Reds put him in left field.

    Really, now, one can argue Frazier has a better overall chance at major league success. But last year - not even close.
    Yes, Frazier played LF, but he also played probably close to double the number of innings than did Fracnsico and had 10 fewer errors to show for it.

    It's hard to quantify that data alone, especially comparing different positions, but it doesn't take much math to know that the defense of that differential probably wipes out most or all of the 100 point OPS.

    If we look at defense too, as it does matter, there's no way anyone can look at their seasons and derive at a conclusion that Francisco was much better.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  10. #24
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Yes, Frazier played LF, but he also played probably close to double the number of innings than did Fracnsico and had 10 fewer errors to show for it.

    It's hard to quantify that data alone, especially comparing different positions, but it doesn't take much math to know that the defense of that differential probably wipes out most or all of the 100 point OPS.

    If we look at defense too, as it does matter, there's no way anyone can look at their seasons and derive at a conclusion that Francisco was much better.

    I've not seen Frazier play defense. But I've read comments on RedsZone that question his defense.

    If Frazier were a good defensive infielder, I still don't understand why the Reds moved him to LF.

    Similarly, if Francisco was so hopeless at 3B, why do the Reds keep him there?

    My take is that the Reds see JF as having better tools with a chance to be a good defender at third. He's still young and they want to give him the reps at third base to get better there.

    I like Frazier as a hitting prospect - seems very solid - but it troubles me that the team has moved him all over the field and now has put him in LF where a big bat is needed to excel.

  11. #25
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Yes, Frazier played LF, but he also played probably close to double the number of innings than did Fracnsico and had 10 fewer errors to show for it.

    It's hard to quantify that data alone, especially comparing different positions, but it doesn't take much math to know that the defense of that differential probably wipes out most or all of the 100 point OPS.

    If we look at defense too, as it does matter, there's no way anyone can look at their seasons and derive at a conclusion that Francisco was much better.
    Considering offensive contributions from 3B are much more valuable than offense from LF, that helps close the defensive gap...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  12. #26
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    If we look at defense too, as it does matter, there's no way anyone can look at their seasons and derive at a conclusion that Francisco was much better.
    There's no way? Certainly there's a way. I saw them both play day in and day out and Francisco was clearly the better player. Clearly.

  13. #27
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    I saw them both play day in and day out and Francisco was clearly the better player. Clearly.
    I buy this.

    The sample size is hardly worth relying on, but I will echo that in the few ABs I saw Frazier get for Louisville, he looked really bad. It was very discouraging to see.
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  14. #28
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    How clear was it, really?

    Frazier had a better OBP. Francisco had the lead in iso. Put it together, and yes Francisco had about 100 points better OPS, but there's a chance a lot of that is wiped out by defense as Francisco committed 13 errors while Frazier committed only 5.

    Considering the whole package, I don't think Francisco was clearly better at all. In fact, including defense, I think Frazier had a slightly better year and this coming from a guy who hasn't been on the Frazier bandwagon, to be perfectly honest.
    If you've seen them both play, you'd change your tune. Francisco's two best tools-- power and arm-- are much better than any tool Frazier possesses. Too, the kid is a solid two years younger at the same level playing a much more demanding position wheren errors are a part of the process. (While Frazier's glove is better and his range is as well, Francisco's defense is not to EdE's level.)

    That 100 point OPS spread is worth a bunch, especially considering position.

    Not only that, from a purely prospective position, Francisco's numbers continue to climb, while Frazier's not only stagnated, he's gone backwards. (And this isn't really an indictment of Frazier as a prospect. He's fine, all things considered, as a fourth OF and super sub, a la De Rosa.)

    It's just that Francisco's talent level and numbers seem to indicate he's likely to be the better bet going forward.
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  15. #29
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    If you've seen them both play, you'd change your tune. Francisco's two best tools-- power and arm-- are much better than any tool Frazier possesses. Too, the kid is a solid two years younger at the same level playing a much more demanding position wheren errors are a part of the process. (While Frazier's glove is better and his range is as well, Francisco's defense is not to EdE's level.)

    That 100 point OPS spread is worth a bunch, especially considering position.

    Not only that, from a purely prospective position, Francisco's numbers continue to climb, while Frazier's not only stagnated, he's gone backwards. (And this isn't really an indictment of Frazier as a prospect. He's fine, all things considered, as a fourth OF and super sub, a la De Rosa.)

    It's just that Francisco's talent level and numbers seem to indicate he's likely to be the better bet going forward.
    Who said I haven't seen them both play? I have, and I'm not changing my tune. As I've said repeatedly in this thread, I don't think Francisco is very good defensively at third and his approach at the plate is not one that is likely to translate to Major League success. In fact, Todd Frazier played 35 games at third this year in Louisville: committing 3 errors. Franciso committed 11 errors at Louisville in 62 games.

    Francisco has better tools. No one is arguing that. But better tools won't always win out and I don't see Francisco being much at the next level. Not that I think Frazier will either. I think he's more of a solid but not spectacular guy.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  16. #30
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    There's no way? Certainly there's a way. I saw them both play day in and day out and Francisco was clearly the better player. Clearly.
    Clearly huh?

    If there were WAR done for minor leagues, Todd Frazier may well have compiled a better WAR, or at least close. Yet Francisco was clearly the better player? Given the same number of plate appearances at Louisville (we'll say 538 since that's what Frazier had), Francisco would have been about 14-15 runs better. Given Francisco's defense, it's very, very easy to think, if we were using a UZR-like metric, that the difference between Francisco and Frazier defensively may have been around 12-15 runs.

    Like I said... its' really hard, when actually analyzing their play, to come up with a conclusion objectively that supports Francisco having a much better year.
    Last edited by Brutus; 10-27-2010 at 01:58 PM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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