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View Poll Results: Assuming he's a Red, what will Arroyo's IP & ERA be in 2011?

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  • Over 200 IP, Under 4.20 ERA

    25 58.14%
  • Over 200 IP, Over 4.20 ERA

    14 32.56%
  • Under 200 IP, Under 4.20 ERA

    2 4.65%
  • Under 200 IP, Over 4.20 ERA

    2 4.65%
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Thread: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    The Arroyo Extension conversation has included of debate about what people expect from him in 2011. So given that, pick one of the options in the poll -- no explanation necessary.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    4.20 ERA is a pretty good spot for the over/under. I've been kind of thinking about 4.20 as a reasonable expectaton, but 4.00 to 4.30 is a reasonable range. I picked the under, but a few points under or over don't really mean much in his case. Its taking the ball every day, getting deep into the game and handing it over to the pen with the team in position to win. Had the number been 4.00, it would have been an easy choice to take the over. Had the number been 4.40, it would have been an easy choice to take the under.

    At 215 IP, 100 Earned Runs allowed is a 4.19 ERA and is a reasonable expectation. 105 ER would push that ERA to 4.40 after rounding. Not sure how much 5 Runs over 33 starts would matter in terms of wins and losses even though the stats look a lot different. Its likely the difference between being left in to give-up 8 runs in a blow-out to save the pen for a couple innings and being taken out with 3 or 4 given up early in the game. I think we sometimes overstate how much these differences matter in terms of wins and losses. As the innings horse in a rotation filled with kids, its part of Arroyo's job to take those beatings so that the kids can be handled with care the day before or day after. His ERA probably suffers by a few points because of it but those extra runs are piled on in a game that would be a loss anyway and probably mean very little in terms of actual wins and losses.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  4. #3
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    200+ innings, around a 4.20 ERA, no missed starts and around 15-17 wins. Consistency has been his calling card and he will stay consistent.

  5. #4
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    Put me down for 175 IP and a 4.45 ERA. He's a pitcher; good health won't last forever.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #5
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Put me down for 175 IP and a 4.45 ERA. He's a pitcher; good health won't last forever.
    Maybe not forever, but when something has happened 6 years in a row it's hard to make an argument that it has less than even odds of happening again.

  7. #6
    Administrator Boss-Hog's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    I clicked on the wrong option - I meant "Over 200 IP, Under 4.20 ERA".

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Maybe not forever, but when something has happened 6 years in a row it's hard to make an argument that it has less than even odds of happening again.
    I'd be very interested to see all of the people who had 6 seasons of 200 IP and what happened in season #7. I don't think the odds are as high as you do. I'm not sure I can pull that from the B-R database, but maybe WoY or one of the other guys with access to good data can.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-30-2010 at 02:51 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    If Arroyo's innings dropped to the 175 level, where he skips a turn when he's gassed or has a nagging problem instead of taking the ball anyway to keep the staff in order and where he comes out of the game instead of going back out there to save the pen when he's spent or doesn't have it, I'd expect an accross the board improvement in all those peripheral numbers that seem to be held against him. Inning eaters don't have the luxury of being babied like the others are. Without one or two like him, the others would be asked to do those things and we'd probably see the numbers of guys like Cueto and Wood look a little worse as well, not to mention the extra stress on the pen and how it might burn up Masset and the other late inning guys.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If Arroyo's innings dropped to the 175 level, where he skips a turn when he's gassed or has a nagging problem instead of taking the ball anyway to keep the staff in order and where he comes out of the game instead of going back out there to save the pen when he's spent or doesn't have it, I'd expect an accross the board improvement in all those peripheral numbers that seem to be held against him. Inning eaters don't have the luxury of being babied like the others are. Without one or two like him, the others would be asked to do those things and we'd probably see the numbers of guys like Cueto and Wood look a little worse as well, not to mention the extra stress on the pen and how it might burn up Masset and the other late inning guys.
    I'm not suggesting he's going to be babied and that's where the innings drop comes from. I'm suggesting he's going to flat out miss a handful of starts. If anything, his peripherals will be worse for the wear.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #10
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'd be very interested to see all of the people who had 6 seasons of 200 IP and what happened in season #7. I don't think the odds are as high as you do. I'm not sure I can pull that from the B-R database, but maybe WoY or one of the other guys with access to good data can.
    There have been 31 players since 1980 (through 2009) who have gone at least 6 years of 200 innings. Only 12 made it to 7 years in a row. Here is how the 7th year went for the guys who only made it 6 years.

    Randy Johnson - Age 39 - 114 innings, 4.26 ERA
    Mike Moore - 199.1 innings, threw 3 more 200+ inning seasons in a row after that.
    Jamie Moyer - 199.1 innings.
    Barry Zito - 196 innings, first year in the NL
    Freddy Garcia - 58 innings in 2007, 15 in 2008 and 56 in 2009.
    Brad Radke - 118 innings, then threw 3 straight 200+.
    Ron Darling - went two straight years with under 130 innings before rebounding to 194.
    Dennis Martinez - 1994 happened.
    Bert Blyleven - 134 innings, missed the next season, then 133 innings before retiring.
    Bruce Hurst - Threw 41 innings over the next two seasons before retiring.
    Bob Welch - Threw 123, 166 and 68 before retiring
    Mike Scott - 7 innings at age 35. Retired after that.
    David Wells - 100 innings, then threw 184+ in 4 straight years.
    Walt Terrell - 158, 218 and 136 before retiring at age 34.
    Doyle Alexander - Retired after his 6th season at age 38.
    Doug Drabek - 1994 happened. Never topped 185 again in his career.
    Mike Witt - 117 innings, then threw 10 innings over 2 seasons with a full season missed between those two before retiring.
    David Cone - 1994 Happened.
    Fernando Valenzuela - 142 innings, then only topped 100 innings 4 times in 8 more seasons with a full year missing.

  12. #11
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'm not suggesting he's going to be babied and that's where the innings drop comes from. I'm suggesting he's going to flat out miss a handful of starts. If anything, his peripherals will be worse for the wear.
    Exactly, kind of like Cueto going on the DL with fatigue and nagging injuries to save him from a string of 9+ ERA outings, Volquez going to the DL and Dayton because he's not himself and out of whack to save him from his streak of inability. Leake being shut down with shoulder fatigue when he was a batting tee, etc. etc. etc.

    In year's past Arroyo has pitched through stuff like that (Carpal Tunnel??) and suffered his own series of poor outings which contribute greatly to those poor peripherals everyone harps on. What has happened to those others is babying by the way and guys like Arroyo taking the ball are a big reason why its possible.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #12
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    There have been 31 players since 1980 (through 2009) who have gone at least 6 years of 200 innings. Only 12 made it to 7 years in a row. Here is how the 7th year went for the guys who only made it 6 years.

    Randy Johnson - Age 39 - 114 innings, 4.26 ERA
    Mike Moore - 199.1 innings, threw 3 more 200+ inning seasons in a row after that.
    Jamie Moyer - 199.1 innings.
    Barry Zito - 196 innings, first year in the NL
    Freddy Garcia - 58 innings in 2007, 15 in 2008 and 56 in 2009.
    Brad Radke - 118 innings, then threw 3 straight 200+.
    Ron Darling - went two straight years with under 130 innings before rebounding to 194.
    Dennis Martinez - 1994 happened.
    Bert Blyleven - 134 innings, missed the next season, then 133 innings before retiring.
    Bruce Hurst - Threw 41 innings over the next two seasons before retiring.
    Bob Welch - Threw 123, 166 and 68 before retiring
    Mike Scott - 7 innings at age 35. Retired after that.
    David Wells - 100 innings, then threw 184+ in 4 straight years.
    Walt Terrell - 158, 218 and 136 before retiring at age 34.
    Doyle Alexander - Retired after his 6th season at age 38.
    Doug Drabek - 1994 happened. Never topped 185 again in his career.
    Mike Witt - 117 innings, then threw 10 innings over 2 seasons with a full season missed between those two before retiring.
    David Cone - 1994 Happened.
    Fernando Valenzuela - 142 innings, then only topped 100 innings 4 times in 8 more seasons with a full year missing.
    Looking at that, it seems like the odds are a little better than 50-50, when you consider three guys came real close, and three others were denied due to the strike.

    But the fact that there have only been 31 in the last 30 years speaks very highly of what Arroyo has accomplished.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  14. #13
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    Guys who don't strike people out and rely on their defense usually have a high rate of variation in their ERAs from year to year. I would not be surprised by an ERA of 3.50 from Arroyo and I also would not be surprised by a 5.00 ERA. Realistically, I expect something like a 4.50 ERA.

    And the 200 innings is a no-brainer as that is his primary skill...
    Last edited by *BaseClogger*; 10-30-2010 at 06:08 PM.
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  15. #14
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    185 innings, 4.36 ERA, 12 wins.

  16. #15
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Expectations for Arroyo in 2011

    I don't have this years data yet, but at the end of last year here's the list of guys since 1980 who had 200IP in consecutive years (and the total)

    Code:
    ALL LEAGUES & TEAMS
    1980-2009
    ALL POSITIONS
    INNINGS PITCHED >= 200
    
    
    1    Greg Maddux              1988-01   14   
    2    Frank Viola              1983-92   10   
    T3   Mike Mussina             1995-03    9   
    T3   Mark Buehrle             2001-09    9   
    T5   Mark Langston            1986-93    8   
    T5   Tom Candiotti            1986-93    8   
    T5   Livan Hernandez          2000-07    8   
    T8   Jack Morris              1982-88    7   
    T8   Charlie Hough            1982-88    7   
    T8   Mike Boddicker           1984-90    7   
    T8   Roger Clemens            1986-92    7   
    T8   Tom Glavine              1996-02    7   
    T13  Fernando Valenzuela      1982-87    6   
    T13  Mike Witt                1984-89    6   
    T13  Walt Terrell             1984-89    6   
    T13  Ron Darling              1984-89    6   
    T13  Bert Blyleven            1984-89    6   
    T13  Mike Moore               1984-89    6   
    T13  Doyle Alexander          1984-89    6   
    T13  Mike Scott               1985-90    6   
    T13  Bob Welch                1986-91    6   
    T13  Bruce Hurst              1987-92    6   
    T13  Dennis Martinez          1988-93    6   
    T13  Doug Drabek              1988-93    6   
    T13  David Cone               1988-93    6   
    T13  David Wells              1995-00    6   
    T13  Brad Radke               1996-01    6   
    T13  Randy Johnson            1997-02    6   
    T13  Freddy Garcia            2001-06    6   
    T13  Barry Zito               2001-06    6   
    T13  Jamie Moyer              2001-06    6   
    T32  Don Sutton               1982-86    5   
    T32  Dave Stieb               1982-86    5   
    T32  Phil Niekro              1982-86    5   
    T32  Rick Rhoden              1982-86    5   
    T32  Kevin Gross              1985-89    5   
    T32  Orel Hershiser           1985-89    5   
    T32  Dave Stewart             1987-91    5   
    T32  John Smoltz              1989-93    5   
    T32  Pedro Martinez           1996-00    5   
    T32  Steve Trachsel           1996-00    5   
    T32  Kevin Brown              1996-00    5   
    T32  Mike Hampton             1997-01    5   
    T32  Jeff Suppan              1999-03    5   
    T32  Bartolo Colon            2001-05    5   
    T32  Carlos Zambrano          2003-07    5   
    T32  Johan Santana            2004-08    5   
    T32  Brandon Webb             2004-08    5   
    T32  Roy Oswalt               2004-08    5   
    T32  Dan Haren                2005-09    5   
    T32  Bronson Arroyo           2005-09    5   
    T32  Javier Vazquez           2005-09    5


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