21? Wasn't he an .800 ops guy (in '08) before he turned 21? I don't think there have been many to do that at the age of 20. Maybe a dozen made up of mostly HOF'ers.Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
21? Wasn't he an .800 ops guy (in '08) before he turned 21? I don't think there have been many to do that at the age of 20. Maybe a dozen made up of mostly HOF'ers.
If you ask me, Leake and Bailey weren't 3.0 WAR in 2010, but that's an entirely different discussion.
Keeping your numbers in mind, you have a fair point, but one thing to take note of is that you're comparing the production from two roster spots to one. For the Reds in 2010, each roster spot was worth ~1.4 WAR. Therefore, trading Bailey and Leake for Upton would be like trading 3.0 WAR for 4.5 WAR, give or take a little. And as you know, Upton's numbers in 2009 were far more impressive than they were in 2010, so I think it's fair to assume he'll produce a lot more than 3.1 WAR annually for several years to come when you factor in his age.
Leake and Bailey would no-doubt get the conversation started, but I still don't think it's nearly enough for Upton.
Amongst players with 300+ plate appearances during the season, Justin Upton is one of seven players to do it in the past 50 years. The others are:
Alex Rodriguez
Tony Conigliaro (twice)
Bob Horner
Jason Heyward
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Mike Stanton
I think the baseball ref comp of Andruw Jones is a pretty apt one.
However, in bargaining, I'd start with the injury situation, then the K's, then the fact the Dbacks don't see the value in keeping him for 5 years at 10 mil per. Then I'd start the conversation.
Frankly, we can build a .850 OPS LFer for 3 million and use the savings on pitching or keeping Bruce and Votto. Defensively, we're still under what Upton provides, though. But, I'm not sure that's worth 7 additional million.
This from MLB trade rumors though:
Is that ever NOT Walt Jocketty???The Red Sox are on the "backburner" in the Upton talks after a mystery team made a strong push yesterday, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
2015 Rotation: Under Construction
Bad News:
Is that ever NOT Walt Jocketty???
MLBTR:
The Blue Jays are showing "strong interest" in Upton, according to Rosenthal (on Twitter). They are the mystery team from FOX Sports' earlier report.
Go BLUE!!!
At $500,000 this year, Upton is a freaking steal. Even when he starts to get really expensive in a few years, 1) Phillips is off the books 2) Cordero is off the Books and 3) Arroyo will be off the books. Now I understand that Votto, Bruce, Cueto and company are all due healthy raises, but if the Reds keep winning the team might be able to support a $85 to 90 million payroll. Worst case you move him right before he gets uber expensive, Yorman is ready and get back a ton of prospects back for him from the Yankees or Red Sox.
Yeah, his birthday is August 25, so he did spend most of 2008 as a 20 year old.
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
A deal of Bailey, Leake, Alonso, Mesoraco, and Heisey is pretty beastly, IMO, and one that should get Uption here.
That would put the Red rotation at Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Wood, and Chapman, with Maloney and LeCure as back-end fodder. That's not untenable, though at least two of the youngsters would have to step forward in a pretty big way to make a strong playoff push.
Upton in LF would be divine, though I question the amount given up and the likelihood that Beltran will equal Upton's numbers and positional value (in LF) for 2011 and be a fraction of the cost in prospects. (Or, with Cordero gonig the other way, no prospects involved.)
Wondering why the D-backs are willing to trade Upton, I came across this...
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201.../justin.upton/
She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning
Damn, they've discovered his tactics!!!
2015 Rotation: Under Construction
Curious as to how the writer determines "hitting the same." He claimed Griffey "basically" hit the same from ages 23-27 as he did at age 21.
Age 21: OPS+ 155
Age 23-27: Not including his injured 95 he averaged an OPS+ of 165.
He also went from a 20+ HR hitter to a 40+ HR Hitter.
Basically he went from great to MVP caliber. Where as Pujols went from MVP Caliber to All Time great single season caliber. To me they both seem like good jumps.
I really wish I understood more of the OPS+ calculation he is using. Numbers wise Upton's 21 year old season of 26HR's, 55 BB's and a .300/.366/.532 slash line is very similar to Griffey in 1992 with 27 HR's, 44BB's and a .308/.361/.535 slash line. In fact it's nearly identical. Yet Upton gets an OPS+ of 129 while Griffey gets an OPS+ of 149. Can someone with a little more knowledge explain why this might be?
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
Cots has his 2011 salary at over $4mill
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/200...dbacks_10.html
Admittedly that's still a good deal but those salaries in 2014-15 are scary
No way Upton provides anywhere near the production or value that that package would provide the Reds over the next few years. Way too much.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
I believe OPS+ has a park adjustment component and a seasonal adjustment so both of those could have a role.
Interesting.
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