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Thread: What are your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

  1. #1
    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    What are your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    could he be the cleanup batter thats needed???

    avg/HRs/RBI/OPS

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    He's a bust.

    Oh, sorry. Wrong forum.

    Seriously, what I'd like to see from him is to spend some time against some kind of competition - be it instructional or winter league - refining his bunting skills. If he comes up to bat 4 times in a game over the winter, I'd like to see him drop 2 bunts down. I've seen him work at it before games but I am not one who believes that bunting can be improved by getting 65 mph pitches thrown at you from 45 feet. That's not going to prepare you for a major league fastball or slider or curveball.
    Last edited by Chip R; 11-05-2010 at 10:17 AM.
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    Moderator The Operator's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    I don't know that he's consistent enough yet to be counted on as a cleanup guy. Love having him in the order though.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    I won't project runs and rbi since those are a function of his lineup slot, but I think he goes .265/.340/.460 with 25 HR and 35 SB.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    I think his next season will look a lot like this one, aside from a significantly improved UZR. (In fact, as the team is constructed right now, I suspect he'll own the third-highest WAR of anyone on the team.)

    Put me down for 260/335/450/785 with 30-35 SB. And a GG level CF.
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    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    Scrap, I think he'll be a 30-30 guy too, I think he'll bunt better and his average will be around 280-290 and drive in at least 90 RBI

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    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3 View Post
    Scrap, I think he'll be a 30-30 guy too, I think he'll bunt better and his average will be around 280-290 and drive in at least 90 RBI
    30-30? Maybe. .280? Eh, maybe someday. .290? I'd bet against that.

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    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    What kind of obp do you guys think he needs to have to reach his potential? With his speed, this would seem to really be a major factor. I'd like for him pick it up to .340 to .350 this year and see what happens. If he could match the higher numbers he put up in the minors, that would be even better.

  10. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    Quote Originally Posted by tixe View Post
    What kind of obp do you guys think he needs to have to reach his potential? With his speed, this would seem to really be a major factor. I'd like for him pick it up to .340 to .350 this year and see what happens. If he could match the higher numbers he put up in the minors, that would be even better.
    OBP is basically a combination of:

    (How often do you hit HR) + (How often do you walk) + (How often do you reach base on balls in play * How often do you put the ball in play)

    The respective indicators for those things being HR/PA, BB/PA, BABIP and K/PA. Improving your OBP requires moving at least 1 of those levers.

    The HR rate he showed is great and does help his OBP. But I don't think there's much room for expansion there. He's not likely to hit 40 HR and if he does, it can't come at the expense of OBP or he's probably hurting his overall production. For many players, that higher HR% comes at the expense of a higher K%. On net, this often makes sense. 1 HR and a few strikeouts is worth the same as putting all of those balls in play. But balls in play are more valuable for guys like Stubbs than for anybody else in baseball. He might be better off hitting fewer HR if it means a bunch more balls in play.

    His walk rate is already a solid 9.4%. For a guy pitcher's aren't actively avoiding, that's really good and not likely to go up much.

    His BABIP is already a very strong .330. For a guy with his speed, that is sustainable. It could theoretically go up a bit more with more bunt hits and/or line drives, but I don't think we should count on those necessarily. I'm not sure if .330.

    And that brings us to his K rate. We all know Ks are bad. But it's not because of a lost opportunity for a productive out. It's because it's a guaranteed non-on base event. Only two major leaguers who qualified for the batting title had a K rate worse than Stubbs last year: Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds. Two mashers if there ever were. Just below him you see guys like Carlos Pena, Ryan Howard and Mike Napoli. These are guys with .250 ISO potential. Their value comes from that power and that power comes from a swing that generates a lot of misses. Further, they aren't much in the way of runners and aren't going to beat out weakly hit balls. That's not Stubbs.

    I don't advocate a beat-the-ball-into-the-ground approach, giving up power voluntarily and eschewing walks. But Stubbs needs to find a way to shore up his 2-strike approach. The quickest (and perhaps only) way for him to add value to his overall game is to cut down on the Ks and put more balls in play. He's not an Adam Dunn type whose sheer size and build would make it difficult for him to be a better contact hitter. Stubbs is wiry and has plenty of fast-twitch muscle. If I'm the Reds coaching staff, I'm spending the offseason working with him on pitch recognition and a cut down 2-strike swing. It's possible. Evan Longoria has famously worked on this and lowered his K% from 27.2 to 24.0 to 21.6. His OBP has risen from .343 to .364 to .372. These are not unrelated.

    Anyways, that's my Stubbs' OBP diatribe for the day.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    I agree that the K rate is the hang up to batting cleanup. A plus with Stubbs, however, is that he is not going to ground into very many DP's. That makes walking Votto to get to him less attractive.

    My question for those more knowledgeable than I is this. Can improving his ability to pick up bunt hits occasionally eventually result in lowering his K rate. It seems to me that it complicates life for opposing the pitchers. A cleanup hitter in an RBI situation that occasionally drops a bunt is not something often seen, but with Bruce and Rolen following, would it really be a bad play?

  12. #11
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    I could do the research on this, I guess, but it's easier to ask : : What caused Stubbs to have consistently higher obp numbers before he got to Louisville?

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    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    Being the number four hitter brings expectations and pressure. It often changes a hitter's mindset. I'm much more comfortable with an experienced hitter in the four hole. I'd rather not put Stubbs into that role for a year or two.

  14. #13
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    Quote Originally Posted by tixe View Post
    I could do the research on this, I guess, but it's easier to ask : : What caused Stubbs to have consistently higher obp numbers before he got to Louisville?
    A little bit higher BABIP, higher walk rate, and a lower K rate from looking at his fangraphs page.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...28&position=OF

  15. #14
    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    I know Stubbs isnt in Eric Davis territory, but does he live in the same area code as Davis, in other words does he compare somewhat to E.D.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What is your projections for Drew Stubbs in 2011 and

    Stubbs is a clear plus at this point, but I'm not ready to go as far as many others and I still think he'll have long periods of being an easy out mixed in with some hot streaks. I hope the Reds have a 5th OF/caddy who can give him a couple days off when he's slumping (a good use for Laynce Nix IMO).

    I'll predict:

    .240/.325/.430 with 18 HR, 25 SBs and a clear step forward defensively where he becomes the premier CF in the NL.
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