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View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

Voters
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  • Junior Arias

    2 2.25%
  • Brad Boxberger

    13 14.61%
  • Daniel Corcino

    1 1.12%
  • Jonathan Correa

    1 1.12%
  • Danny Dorn

    2 2.25%
  • Juan Duran

    4 4.49%
  • Mariekson Gregorius

    1 1.12%
  • Ismael Guillon

    14 15.73%
  • Jacob Johnson

    0 0%
  • Donnie Joseph

    24 26.97%
  • Ryan LaMarre

    3 3.37%
  • Kyle Lotzkar

    6 6.74%
  • Felix Perez

    0 0%
  • Henry Rodriguez

    0 0%
  • Neftali Soto

    1 1.12%
  • Ronald Torreyes

    3 3.37%
  • Chris Valaika

    14 15.73%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    Lotzkar. Dominant when healthy, and didn't throw up a 8.49 ERA in 22 games of AA and an 11.37ERA in AFL like Boxberger.
    Buster Posey hit .225 in the AFL last year too. The sample sizes are just way too small to take much from.

    Boxberger certainly had terrible numbers out of the bullpen this season. But stuff wise, he just is on a different level than any other pitcher we have left who doesn't have major injury concerns (Looking at you Lotzkar and Thompson). But as a reliever he is a guy with a plus fastball (98 MPH is where he tops out) and an above average breaking ball. He had some control issues out of the bullpen, but they weren't there as a starter, so I figure that he will find his control and be alright.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by cinreds21 View Post
    I didn't pick B-Box because, yes, he did dazzle as a starter, but he's not a starter anymore.
    Based upon what? The Reds putting him into the pen in the second half? I dont buy that he does not go back to starting this coming season. You dont just keep talent like that in the pen when they are throwing like Box was.
    "When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"

  4. #18
    -The Insider-
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    That's what I thought at first, but the Reds wouldn't move that big of a prospect to Double-A and the pen. He only had 62 innings in Lynchburg before they promoted him to Carolina. I may be wrong and they move him back into the rotation, but I'm usually right.

  5. #19
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I've been a Duran guy...how far off the map has he fallen?
    I don't think he's fallen off the map at all. He started off this season very slow (.411 OPS in 41 PA in June) but then posted an OPS in the .770ish area the rest of the season. That's pretty solid considering how raw and young he is.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  6. #20
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    I went with Lotzkar again. My optimistic side outweighs the pessimistic side. I believe he's healthy and ready to put together an incredible run in 2011 - and will push for a rotation spot in ST 2012.

  7. #21
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He won't be a closer. He doesn't have the fastball for it. Maybe a 7th/8th inning guy.
    Why does being a closer require a better fastball than 7th/8th inning guy? Effective is effective. Outs are outs.

    The closer is probably the reliever least likely to come in and need to put out a fire -- the way most managers tend to use them, Dusty included. Those are the guys I would thing that most need to be able to blow somebody away.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #22
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Why does being a closer require a better fastball than 7th/8th inning guy? Effective is effective. Outs are outs.

    The closer is probably the reliever least likely to come in and need to put out a fire -- the way most managers tend to use them, Dusty included. Those are the guys I would thing that most need to be able to blow somebody away.
    But effective isn't effective in real life baseball where managers make decisions. Closers tend to stay closers even if someone else is throwing up better numbers in a different role. It is why teams pay premiums for closers. Whether I agree with them at all is another story. But until teams stop paying big money for guys with saves over guys with numbers, guys who profile as 'closers' are going to be more valuable prospects than guys who profile as 'non closers'.

  9. #23
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    I don't care what he profiles as. He gets people out and K's a crapload of people doing it. I'm guessing he's going to be extremely valuable two or three years down the road as a LH version of Nick Masset.

    (As an aside, wouldn't Joseph's possible value as an effective middle reliever during high leverage innings make him more valuable than a "higher end" closer prospect who projects only to close out the ninth inning?)
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  10. #24
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I don't care what he profiles as. He gets people out and K's a crapload of people doing it. I'm guessing he's going to be extremely valuable two or three years down the road as a LH version of Nick Masset.

    (As an aside, wouldn't Joseph's possible value as an effective middle reliever during high leverage innings make him more valuable than a "higher end" closer prospect who projects only to close out the ninth inning?)
    As long as closers get paid 2-4 times as much as other relievers with the same rate stats, no.

  11. #25
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    But effective isn't effective in real life baseball where managers make decisions. Closers tend to stay closers even if someone else is throwing up better numbers in a different role. It is why teams pay premiums for closers. Whether I agree with them at all is another story. But until teams stop paying big money for guys with saves over guys with numbers, guys who profile as 'closers' are going to be more valuable prospects than guys who profile as 'non closers'.
    But to your point, if it's just about usage and not effectiveness, why should that hurt his status as a prospect? Maybe it does as a trade piece, but assuming e turns in to solid major leaguer, his value to the Reds is probably best realized in high leverage situations in the 7th and 8th.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #26
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    But to your point, if it's just about usage and not effectiveness, why should that hurt his status as a prospect? Maybe it does as a trade piece, but assuming e turns in to solid major leaguer, his value to the Reds is probably best realized in high leverage situations in the 7th and 8th.
    Because a guy who turns into a closer saves the Reds a lot of money while providing good value, where as a guy who isn't going to close because managers aren't always smart about their bullpen usage, just brings value. It simply makes the closer prospect worth more when it turns out that its value + a lot of saved money versus just value. Closer is really the only position where that comes into play, but it does.

  13. #27
    Member medford's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    While he's getting a good amount of love at this spot (and some prior as well), but has yet to be mentioned, I went w/ Guillon at 11. I love what he did in his first season after working on injuries last year. I'm looking forward to seeing him in Dayton (hopefully) this season and what he can do over a full season.

  14. #28
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    Guillon was impressive and deserves consideration, but I think he's getting rated higher than he deserves because the press has followed him more than, say, Jonathan Correa.

  15. #29
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Guillon was impressive and deserves consideration, but I think he's getting rated higher than he deserves because the press has followed him more than, say, Jonathan Correa.
    The Reds like Guillon a little bit more from the few people I have talked to within the organization. They really like both, but see more with Guillon.

  16. #30
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #11 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The Reds like Guillon a little bit more from the few people I have talked to within the organization. They really like both, but see more with Guillon.
    I don't doubt that at all, but I think a lot of that comes from so many people in the organization urging the Reds brass to spend so much more cash on him. Besides, scouts always like lefties more than righties anyway.


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