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Thread: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

  1. #16
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Ah yes, my favorite thing from the chat. My question is, if a sub 4.00 ERA is a back of the rotation starter.... then who has a good rotation?
    The Reds of Cincinnati!!! Wahoo!!!

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  3. #17
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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Ah yes, my favorite thing from the chat. My question is, if a sub 4.00 ERA is a back of the rotation starter.... then who has a good rotation?
    I respect your scouting opinion on Wood, as you have always been high on him, even before his breakout 2009 year. So, why do you rate him higher than a 4/5 starter? In the past, I always thought he needed a better breaking pitch to make it in the majors, but I was obviously wrong.

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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread View Post
    I respect your scouting opinion on Wood, as you have always been high on him, even before his breakout 2009 year. So, why do you rate him higher than a 4/5 starter? In the past, I always thought he needed a better breaking pitch to make it in the majors, but I was obviously wrong.
    Well, lets assume the statement is correct in that Wood is at his ceiling right now. He just threw 100 innings in the Majors with a sub 3.75 ERA. In what was is that a 4/5 starter? It simply isn't. This isn't 1988 where that statement would be true. Looking at his stuff and his numbers, it doesn't seem like a large jump to say he could likely repeat this next year. And the year after. His peripherals all line up quite well with what you expect out of him based on everything we know about him.

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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, lets assume the statement is correct in that Wood is at his ceiling right now. He just threw 100 innings in the Majors with a sub 3.75 ERA. In what was is that a 4/5 starter? It simply isn't. This isn't 1988 where that statement would be true. Looking at his stuff and his numbers, it doesn't seem like a large jump to say he could likely repeat this next year. And the year after. His peripherals all line up quite well with what you expect out of him based on everything we know about him.
    So you're saying that performance and stuff are balanced in dictating ceiling?
    Interesting. My framework is that you balance and assess command, makeup and stuff to determine a pitcher's ceiling, and connected to that, their utilization.
    To be a # 3, you have to have one plus pitch and two average ones, combined with average command and makeup. To be a TOR starter you need at least 2 plus pitches, plus better than average command and makeup.
    So Wood might be a #3 because his changeup is a plus pitch, but I just don't see his other stuff as TOR, but I'm asking you about it because I think you have a better read on his pitching skills.

  6. #20
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    Its weird that a guy with less than one year in the bigs is "at his ceiling".
    Lets assume that his stuff is as good as it will ever be.
    "At his ceiling" would also assume that he has nothing left to learn at the big league level.
    Things like:
    1) how to get all the various big league hitters out. what pitches each guy hits well & doesn't hit well
    2) the strikezone of all the umpires
    3) how to adjust
    4) how to pace himself
    5) how to get big league hitters out without his best stuff
    .

  7. #21
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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    With Travis Wood I would be very interested to hear the opinion of a scout who saw Wood pitch this year. Not in terms of what he envisions him as but how he looked in terms of command and movement.

    I saw him pitch a few times this year and was really surprised when I saw his fastball hitting 92-93 after hearing all the reports he was 88-90 guy. If his movement and command are good, he is more than than a back end guy.

    A couple of other points

    1.) I would be curious if the opinions of Wood would change if he was 6'4" instead of a generous 5'11"

    2.) I would be curious if Kevin Goldstein saw him pitch, or talked to someone who saw him pitch this year, or if he went off old scouting reports.

  8. #22
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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread View Post
    So you're saying that performance and stuff are balanced in dictating ceiling?
    Interesting. My framework is that you balance and assess command, makeup and stuff to determine a pitcher's ceiling, and connected to that, their utilization.
    To be a # 3, you have to have one plus pitch and two average ones, combined with average command and makeup. To be a TOR starter you need at least 2 plus pitches, plus better than average command and makeup.
    So Wood might be a #3 because his changeup is a plus pitch, but I just don't see his other stuff as TOR, but I'm asking you about it because I think you have a better read on his pitching skills.
    The 'scouting idea' of what makes a #1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 is incredibly outdated and quite unrealistic. The 'scouting idea' is that a #1 is a #1 on a playoff team. Well that means there are only 8 aces in all of baseball at any given time. Is that true? No, probably not. But even if it were, that means there are only 8 #2 type pitchers too. But who makes up those guys? Non playoff team #1's or is it playoff team #2's? Then we move onto #3's and the same thing applies. Are they made up of the remaining other teams #1's? The remaining teams #2's? Playoff team #3's?

    You want to know what a #1 pitcher is? Pick a given year and pick out the 30 best starting pitchers. Those are #1's.

    Taking the 2010 season, the MLB had 127 pitchers with 120 innings thrown. Those guys make up the majority of starting pitchers in baseball. Lets break them down by 30/30/30/30/7 to make up the 1-5, ordered by ERA by 'group'.

    Code:
    Group	IP	ERA
    #1	5978.04	2.91
    #2	5844.67	3.64
    #3	5459.66	4.19
    #4	4882.35	4.92
    #5	1037.67	5.72
    Does Travis Wood really project as a 5.00 ERA pitcher? That is what a back or the rotation arm actually is in baseball today, regardless of what some ideology thinks it should be.

  9. #23
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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You want to know what a #1 pitcher is? Pick a given year and pick out the 30 best starting pitchers. Those are #1's.
    So for 2010, Aaron Harang = Tim Lincecum or Roy Halladay?

  10. #24
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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    So for 2010, Aaron Harang = Tim Lincecum or Roy Halladay?
    Was Aaron Harang one of the 30 best starters in baseball this year?

  11. #25
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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    Obviously not. But he was the Reds #1. And yes, that doesn't make him a true #1 starter. I suppose there are big money teams that have true #1 starters as their #3 starter.

  12. #26
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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    Obviously not. But he was the Reds #1. And yes, that doesn't make him a true #1 starter. I suppose there are big money teams that have true #1 starters as their #3 starter.
    He wasn't the Reds #1 starter, he just started a game before the other guys. I said take the 30 best starters, not take the 30 guys who started opening day.

  13. #27
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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    If there are 90 better starting pitchers in baseball than Travis Wood, I would love for someone to name them.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  14. #28
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    Re: 11/09/2010 Kevin Goldstein Chat

    You're not going to come up with 90 pitchers 'better than' Travis Wood because--in the eyes of the naysayers--Wood has already pitched above his head a little bit. The thought is that it's only a matter of time before the league gets familiar with him, at which point his numbers will decline to the point of a #4 starter. If Wood can keep up what he did in 2010, he's easily a #1 or #2 starter. Anyway, if you even out the talent of starting pitching across MLB, Wood is, at best, a #3 starter but more likely a #4 starter on both teams.

    David Price
    Matt Garza
    Jeremy Hellickson
    Jamie Shields
    Jeff Niemann
    Wade Davis
    C.C. Sabathia
    Phil Hughes
    Andy Pettitte
    John Lackey
    Jon Lester
    Clay Buchholz
    Ricky Romero
    Shaun Marcum
    Jeremy Guthrie
    Brian Matusz
    Jake Arrieta
    Carl Pavano
    Francisco Liriano
    Brian Duensing
    John Danks
    Mark Buehrle
    Gavin Floyd
    Jake Peavy (when healthy)
    Edwin Jackson
    Justin Verlander
    Max Scherzer
    Fausto Carmona
    Zack Greinke
    C.J. Wilson
    Colby Lewis
    Tommy Hunter
    Cliff Lee
    Gio Gonzalez
    Trevor Cahill
    Dallas Braden
    Brett Anderson
    Jered Weaver
    Ervin Santana
    Joel Pineiro
    Dan Haren
    Felix Hernandez
    Cole Hamels
    Roy Halladay
    Roy Oswalt
    Tim Hudson
    Tommy Hanson
    Derek Lowe
    Jair Jurrjens
    Kris Medlen (when healthy)
    Anibal Sanchez
    Josh Johnson
    Ricky Nolasco
    Mike Pelfrey
    Johan Santana
    R.A. Dickey
    Livan Hernandez
    Stephen Strausberg (when healthy)
    Bronson Arroyo
    Johnny Cueto
    Edinson Volquez
    Chris Carpenter
    Adam Wainwright
    Jaime Garcia
    Yovani Gallardo
    Brett Myers
    Wandy Rodriguez
    J.A. Happ
    Ryan Dempster
    Carlos Zambrano
    James McDonald
    Matt Cain
    Tim Lincecum
    Jonathan Sanchez
    Madison Bumgarner
    Jon Garland
    Mat Latos
    Tim Stauffer
    Ubaldo Jiminez
    Jhoulys Chacin
    Jorge de la Rosa
    Clayton Kershaw
    Hiroki Kuroda
    Chad Billingsley
    Ted Lilly
    Ian Kennedy
    Dan Hudson

    . . . and that's only a quick scan. I'm sure I can come up with more names.


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